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△Numerical forecast of regional precipitation at 20:00 on February 12 (Central Meteorological Observatory/Hair)
Beijing Express News on February 11, the people's voice of the world In the blink of an eye, the "Li Chun" of the traditional twenty-four solar terms has arrived. This week's (February 7-February 13) national weather stage, in the eyes of experts, the scene of rain and snow is still the absolute protagonist. The south continued the previous weather conditions, with frequent precipitation, and the area from Guizhou to Jiangnan was still wet and cold overall. At the same time, the snow in North China is also developing this weekend, but the situation is easy and difficult to predict.
Experts said that according to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, today's (11th) China, Europe and the United States tripartite meteorological agency's latest numerical model forecast is given on the 12th, the snowfall in North China is still variable, and the snow on the 13th is more secure. The main reason is that there are variables in the forecast details of the low-altitude air pressure field and the wind field. At present, the NCEP forecast of the National Environmental Forecasting Center believes that there is basically no snow south of the Great Wall on the 12th. The Ec forecast of the European Meteorological Center is relatively more snowfall, and in the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory of the mainland, the western and northern mountains of Beijing report snowfall. However, according to the situation field, the cold and high-pressure reflux predicted by the mainland is actually good; the isobaric line from the north of Shandong to Hebei, Tianjin, and Beijing just transports Bohai steam to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.
△Numerical forecast of regional precipitation at 20:00 on February 12 (EC/Fa, European Meteorological Centre)
According to experts, the cold and high pressure forecast by the two institutions in Europe and the United States is relatively northward, so that the path of the air flow through the Bohai Sea is short, and even directly from the inland of the Western Liaoning Corridor into Hebei and Beijing; such a situation is not conducive to snowfall in Beijing. Therefore, the current situation field and snowfall forecast by the United States can be matched; the situation field predicted by China and Europe is instead supporting each other's snowfall forecast.
Experts believe that through the comprehensive meteorological element forecasts of Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, the situation in Tianjin and Shijiazhuang is more clear. Among them, the main snowfall period in Shijiazhuang should be from the evening of the 12th to the noon of the 13th; the corresponding is the high humidity area and the power lifting area. The key snowfall period in Tianjin is from the evening of the 12th to the early morning of the 14th; but from the morning to the afternoon of the 12th, there can also be intermittent snowfall.
△Numerical forecast of regional precipitation at 20:00 on February 12 (NCEP/fa, National Environment Center of the United States)
It is worth noting that industry insiders stressed that it is not difficult to find that for the situation in Beijing, the 12th looks more complicated. For example, on the night of the 11th to the morning of the 12th, the low-altitude southeast wind came up, and the power was also lifted; on the morning of the 12th, it was possible that snowfall might occur. At noon on the 12th, the power conditions weakened; from the afternoon to the evening of the 12th, the humidity of the low altitude dropped somewhat, so the 12th may be intermittent snow on the whole. On the 13th, the water vapor power is better coordinated, and the snow is no problem. (Editor-in-Charge/Xiang Yu)
*Editor's Note:
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