Aftermarket view
Night session OPEC released the latest monthly report, this year's demand to maintain optimistic expectations, although the target increase of the current period has not changed, but said that there is room for upward adjustment, the report as a whole continues to support the strong performance of oil prices, followed by the release of heavy news is the United States CPI data recorded 7.5%, hitting a new high since February 1982, after the news was issued, the bond market, stock market, gold, silver, copper and crude oil and other financial attributes of strong commodities have been affected, the entire financial market has violent fluctuations, Investors weighed the impact between inflationary pressures and the Fed's rate hike measures, and there was a clear swing in their views, which led to large intraday fluctuations in various markets, and eventually expectations of interest rate hikes heated up and risk appetite cooled. U.S. Treasury yields soared, U.S. stocks continued to fluctuate back in the night, and important commodities such as crude oil and copper, which were supported by inflation, also fell back from intraday highs;
At present, oil prices are facing a complex situation, Iran nuclear negotiations, geopolitical factors, inflation and the progress of the Fed interest rate hike, changes in the supply and demand level of the crude oil market itself, etc., in the face of the latest changes in various influencing factors will make the market appear more than expected at any time, and the high participation in the market should be cautious and patient to choose opportunities;
Daily updates
[1] WTI main crude oil futures closed up $0.22, or 0.25%, at $89.88/barrel; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.14, or 0.15%, at $91.41/barrel; INE crude oil futures closed up 1.24% at $555.7.
[2] The US dollar index rose 0.13% to 95.68; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell 0.05% to 6.3752 against the renminbi; the US 10-year Treasury rose 0% at 126.64; and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 1.47% to 35241.59.
Recent news
[1] The director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Agency said that the purpose of the relevant parties to provoke war in the Donbass region is to destroy the two people's republics that have unilaterally declared independence, Donetsk and Luhansk, and to involve Russia in the internal conflict in Ukraine. Russia's foreign intelligence chief, Nareshkin, told the media that Ukraine is preparing for war intensively and has made no secret of it. All of Ukraine's militant armed forces are already concentrated on the line of contact with Donbass, and hundreds of tons of military equipment and ammunition are being transported to Ukraine from U.S. military bases in Europe, from Britain and Canada. A team of advisers and instructors for NATO special forces is being formed. There was even news of the existence of multinational extremist teams
【2】 The U.S. unseasonal CPI recorded a 7.5% y/y in January, the highest since February 1982, and the U.S. unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded a 6% y/y rate since September 1982; after the CPI data was released, the federal funds rate futures reflected a 50% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points next month, and if it raises 50 basis points, it would be the first time since 2000; and expected to raise interest rates by a full 1 percentage point by the end of July; the US 10-year Treasury yield rose on Thursday, and the indicator 10-year US Treasury yield reached 2% for the first time since August 2019, after inflation data was higher than expected The remarks of a Fed official boosted expectations that the Fed would act to combat rising prices. "This data once again underscores the sense of urgency for the Fed to act," he said.
[3] OPEC Monthly Report: Global economic growth forecast for 4% in 2022. (previously 4.2%), keeping its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth unchanged for 2022; OPEC maintained unchanged forecast for world oil demand growth for the full year 2022; OPEC believes that due to the strong economic recovery, OPEC believes that the 2022 oil demand forecast has "upside potential" to raise its 2022 oil demand forecast by 100,000 bpd; OPEC's oil production in January increased by 64,000 bpd to 27.98 million b/d, lagging behind OPEC+ Saudi Arabia's production increased by 123,000 b/d to 10,145,000 b/d in January; Iran's crude oil production increased by 21,000 b/d to 2,503,000 b/d in January; Iraq's crude oil production decreased by 27,000 b/d to 4,245,000 b/d; Kuwait's January crude oil production increased by 27,000 b/d to 2,579,000 b/d; and Libya's crude oil production decreased by 45,000 b/d in January. To 1.008 million b/d; UAE crude oil production increased by 44,000 b/d to 2,924,000 b/d in January; India's net imports of petroleum products increased by 30,000 barrels/day from the previous round of statistics; China's net imports of petroleum products increased by 770,000 barrels/day from the previous round of statistics; and us net imports of petroleum products increased by 1.27 million barrels/day from the previous round of statistics.
This article originated from the Energy R&D Center