Straight news: The situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border continues to escalate, and Russia holds large-scale military exercises in the Black Sea and Belarus, what are your observations?
Special Commentator Sun Xingjie: In addition to the large-scale military exercises that Russia is carrying out and about to start, NATO and Ukraine are not idle, if we regard the war as a contest of political will, now all parties are simultaneously conducting large-scale military exercises, how can it not be a soft war? The hybrid war between Russia and the West has actually continued, and now military exercises of this scale and intensity are actually an escalation of the logic of war. The war theorist Clausewitz argues that war is not only a true chameleon whose nature changes more or less in every specific situation, but also, through the whole phenomenon of war and its own main tendencies, war is still a strange trinity, including violence, that is, hatred in the course of war; contingency, in fact, there is a lot of uncertainty in the course of war, and finally the nature of the political instrument of war. Perhaps everyone's attention to war is more focused on the third attribute, that is, war as a means of national strategy, is the expression of national politics and international politics, that is to say, war is rational calculation and trade-off. But throughout the history of war, we will find that many wars are not chosen after rational calculations, but the result of "no choice" under the emotional pressure of fear, honor and so on. Judging from the large-scale military exercises held by various parties, in addition to the exercises and performances, they are also simulating actual combat, but the parties are only engaged in a confrontation with the imaginary enemy, and the imaginary enemies of all sides are so close and real, we cannot regard these exercises as ordinary military exercises.
Needless to say, the scale of Russia's military exercises is that the east and west are transferred to the west, and the sea and land go hand in hand. First, the elite forces of the Russian Navy exercised in the Black Sea, while the aircraft carrier fleets of the United States and other NATO countries conducted exercises in the Mediterranean, which is also since the end of the Cold War, the US aircraft carrier combat has been under NATO's command in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea. Second, Russia and Belarus conduct exercises in the border areas of Belarus close to Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, which the Western media believe is the largest mobilization since the Cold War, the level of military integration between Russia and Belarus is strengthening, and Russia and Belarus are fully prepared for war. The United States has recently stepped up its deployment on NATO's east flank, deploying new troops to Poland and Romania, NATO countries continue to arm Ukraine, and Ukrainian troops have also conducted drone and anti-tank missile exercises in the near future. It can be seen that the military exercises conducted by all parties are also simulations of possible future war scenarios, showing that they are ready for war, and no side wants to back down.
Military exercises around the Black Sea have also slowly revealed the geopolitical structure of the region, which has historically been the stage for strategic games between forces and the huge geopolitical fracture zone. While conducting military exercises and showing muscles, all parties have never expressed their intention to start a war, which will generally form a military balance, but this dangerous balance of fear can easily be broken by unexpected events, such as the armed forces in the two eastern Ukrainian states and changes in the status quo, which may cause black swan events, making the fragile balance between the major powers form, an overnight avalanche.
Straight News: In response to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Japan has provided natural gas aid to Europe, what do you think?
Special commentator Sun Xingjie: This news is still very interesting, Japan is not a natural gas producer and exporter, but the world's main importer and consumer of liquefied natural gas, about 30% of Japan's electricity is dependent on natural gas, this winter, the global energy price rose, why did Japan still allocate natural gas to Europe? The reason is that the United States has no way to meet the demand for natural gas in Europe, about 30% of the United States' liquefied natural gas is exported to Europe, and it is also helping Europe find a source of liquefied natural gas in the Middle East. It is nothing more than to convince European countries that even if Russia cuts the gas pipeline, the United States can guarantee the supply of natural gas in Europe. There are two meanings: one is that the United States has created a perfect opportunity to seize the Natural Gas Market in Europe, in fact, before that, Trump opposed the Nord Stream Ii natural gas pipeline, mainly to find a market for the United States liquefied natural gas, and now the Biden administration has naturally entered the European market with more expensive liquefied natural gas; the other is to offset Russia's natural gas pipeline politics and strengthen the confidence of European allies to follow the United States.
Japan's cabinet minister of economic affairs said that Japanese companies forward many natural gas carriers destined for Japan to Europe, of course, on the premise of ensuring Japan's own needs. In this way, Japan is also participating in the collective action of the Group of Seven. Japan is not a party to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, but as a staunch ally of the United States, Japan is not far behind, through the transfer of natural gas carriers this action to show its position, in fact, Japan also has no loss, now liquefied natural gas prices rise, if there is a reserve, temporarily do not buy it does not matter, do a smooth water, sell to Europeans. But this move has exposed a problem, the United States does not have enough natural gas to Europe, landlords have limited surplus grain, energy prices have risen, and the United States is not exempt. In addition, Russia's greatest strategic advantage, in addition to military strength, is energy, especially natural gas. European countries certainly understand that people need natural gas for heating, cooking, no energy, and all ideas are empty words. Under the gas crisis, European countries imported coal from Russia soared. Russia's super-large-scale land space, oil, natural gas, coal and other energy sources are abundant, and there are huge raw material advantages. Once Europe and the United States jointly impose severe sanctions on Russia, where will the raw materials and energy needed for the EU's economic and social development come from? Is it up to Japan, the importer of raw materials, to "save the emergency"?
The advantage of the United States and its Western camp is the manipulation of the world market, kicking Russia out of the world market with extreme sanctions, which is certainly the result of a lose-lose situation, and the war crisis on the Russian-Ukrainian border is both a geopolitical contest and a contest of economic capacity and resilience.
According to Agence France-Presse, Japan's cabinet minister of economy, trade and industry Mitsuichi Hagida said on the evening of February 9 that Japanese companies had forwarded a number of natural gas carriers destined for Japan to Europe. More gas cargo ships will be sent to Europe next month.
The author 丨 Sun Xingjie, a special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcasting hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".