Text | De Xiao Cai
Tepid.
Today is February 10th, after the three consecutive Yangs, today belongs to the shock market, the index grinding and chirping, until the afternoon big financial shot, the tail market is barely red. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.9 points at 3485 points, more than 2800 stocks fell, and more than 100 stocks fell by more than 5%.
At present, the market index has been seriously divided, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed four consecutive Yangs, and then look at the ChiNext board is somewhat miserable, today the ChiNext board continues to sit on the slide, down 2%. Why is there such a split? Mainly the weights are different for stocks.
An important reason for the decline of the ChiNext board is that the weighted stocks represented by the Ningde era and pharmaceutical stocks have fallen sharply.
Today, the Ningde era closed down another 5%, and at one point fell below 500 yuan during the session, hitting a new low in more than half a year. After the Spring Festival, the decline in the Ningde era reached 15%, evaporating more than 200 billion. Since the record high of 692 yuan on December 3, 2021, the CATL era has fallen by nearly 30%.
On February 8, the Ningde era fell sharply, and then responded, "The fact that our company has consulted the US agency about the possibility of sanctions is false information." "On February 9, Ningde just stopped falling, but I didn't expect to fall sharply today."
The Ningde era plummeted, bringing down all growth tracks and lithium battery boom tracks. From the news side, there is no obvious bearishness in the Ningde era, and the fundamentals of the industry's high prosperity have not changed.
However, the unjustified killing and fall of the Ningde era will inevitably lead to a sharp drawdown of the fund. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, more than 1680 funds held CATL, holding a total of 261 million shares, calculating that the total market value of the fund's holdings in 2022 evaporated by more than 26 billion yuan.
There is also a rumor in the market today: Gülen Management Fund was redeemed for 40 billion, mainly to buy a lot of new energy, wind power and photovoltaics, etc., and now these heavy stocks have collapsed, Gülen, with his own strength to bring the market crash. The CEIBS Fund responded intraday that the "large redemption" spread on the Internet was false news.
Gülen is a bit back on her shoulders, because she manages only 20 billion industry-wide funds. But such news will spread wildly, with strong emotions in itself, the fund fell sharply, and the base suffered a miserable loss.
Whether it is the Gülen storm or the Ningde era, it is easier to understand if it is placed in the background of the fund's heavy stocks. This is the K-line of the fund's heavy stocks recently, which has fallen by 20% since last December. During this time, the blood losses of the basic people have been repeatedly on the hot search, and the national fund managers have scolded the altar.
The problem now: on the one hand, the fund is redeemed in large quantities, and on the other hand, the new fund encounters difficulties in issuance.
Since the beginning of this year, public new funds have issued postponements to end fundraising, and the data shows that a number of new fund announcements established after the start of the Year of the Tiger show that the number of effective subscribers raised continues to decline, thousands of households have become the new normal, the minimum is less than 700, and 100,000 households are even more difficult to find.
Public private fund raising difficulties, fund heavy stocks face liquidation pressure, the entire fund stocks appear serious negative feedback, under the pressure of liquidation, fund managers can only choose to sell, and the continuous decline in stock prices, will also make fundraising more difficult, coupled with the gold absorption effect of other sectors at the same time, resulting in fund stocks becoming a reduced amount of capital game market, a serious stampede effect.
Of course, like the lithium battery boom has not changed, the logic of the growth track has not changed, but it is not just a dimension that determines the market, determined by multiple factors such as fundamentals, capital, and emotions, and the continuous sharp decline of fund stocks has allowed the most active funds in the market to escape. If the fund manager does not work hard, the basic people suffer and eventually have to vote with their feet.
There is no eternal God in the market, only eternal cycles.
After talking about funds, and then talking about the market, today's market can be described in one word: tepid.
This morning, the leading stocks in the front row continued to rise and fall, but it was obvious that the little brother could not keep up. More and more are left behind, and the plates are seriously differentiated.
Specifically, jidong equipment, poly union, and Chongqing construction engineering in infrastructure continue to rise and fall, hengbao shares of digital currency and yuanlong Yatu of the Winter Olympics continue to rise and stop, and other stocks on the board are rushing up and falling or falling sharply at the opening.
The recent continuous surge in infrastructure and digital currency performance is somewhat weaker than expected, and the main line has cooled down, but there is no good place for funds. In the afternoon, under the recovery of the index, some funds flowed back to these two sectors, among them, the tail end of the Gold and Wealth Interconnection was up and down, 3 consecutive boards, and Zhejiang Jiantou Big Tail Market pulled up and stopped, achieving 4 consecutive boards.
Yesterday's review article "Year of the Tiger 3 Lianyang, the fall and stop stocks were eliminated" mentioned: Today's digital currency and other plates climax, medicine, meta-universe and other plates rebounded in an all-round way, the trading volume has not been significantly enlarged, tomorrow will inevitably be differentiated, the idea is still weak and strong, while paying attention to the three-child incentive policy of the baby and child line and other sectors.
Today's sector is more active mainly in the news-stimulated environmental protection, tourism, pork, baby and child concepts and other sectors.
Environmental protection line, the four departments issued a document "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Urban Environmental Infrastructure", the deep-water planning opened 20cm seconds, the old demon shun control development up and down, and the clean water source rushed up and down.
Baby and Child Line, China Family Planning Association: This year, a special action was launched to intervene in abortion among unmarried people. Mei Jim and Tamus rose and stopped, but Gaole shares, child king and so on rushed back down.
Tourism routes, many countries have proposed plans to open borders, and citations such as CITS United, Caesars Tourism, and Utrust Tourism have risen and fallen. In addition, the pork sector will be fried every once in a while, mainly due to the expectation of pork reserves and reserves of the National Development and Reform Commission and the increase in pork prices.
Another line is the popular stock anti-package line, Jincai Interconnection 3 boards, Jinglan Technology, Hubei Radio and Television, Zhengtong Electronics and other 2 boards, logic has also repeatedly said for a few days, popular stocks oversold rebound, anti-package out of the second wave form, the market will diverge, K line form on the formation of imitation, which is also along the divergence of the money-making effect.
Note: This article is for review analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.