【Introduction】The main factors affecting the sales of chicken seedlings are breeding profitability, empty column rate, egg utilization rate, etc., in addition to holidays, weather and other factors also have a certain impact. The decline in chicken seedling sales in January for two consecutive months is the result of a combination of factors. What is the impact of changes in chicken seedling sales on the stock of laying hens and the price of eggs?
1. Sales of chicken seedlings in January showed a seasonal decrease
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and breeding profitability, the sales of chicken seedlings in January decreased month-on-month. According to zhuo Chuang information monitoring data, the total sales volume of the representative enterprise commodity chicken seedlings in January was 39.26 million birds, down 3.40% month-on-month and slightly up 0.23% year-on-year, lower than the five-year average of 1.67%. From the perspective of breeding habits, farmers are generally eliminated before the Spring Festival, and after the festival, they are concentrated in the 15th of the first month, which is the disinfection period of the empty fence, and the festival characteristics of the decline in the sales of chicken seedlings are obvious.
Under normal circumstances, from March to May of each year, it will enter the peak period of chicken seedling sales. First, because the weather is warmer, the comprehensive cost of brooding is reduced (heating costs are reduced, the survival rate is improved); second, the production period and peak period appear around the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the probability of egg prices rising to the highest point of the year is greater, and considerable breeding profits can be obtained. Therefore, the current relatively low sales of chicken seedlings may still increase in the future.
In addition, the month-on-month increase in the utilization rate of breeding eggs also reflects the growth expectations of breeding chicken enterprises for the demand for chicken seedlings in the market. As can be seen from Figure 1, the egg utilization rate in January was 67%, an increase of 14 percentage points month-on-month. And from the long-term (January 2018 to January 2022) data relationship, the correlation coefficient between chicken seedling sales and egg utilization rate is 0.74, which belongs to the medium and high positive correlation relationship. The recovery of the utilization rate of eggs may play a strong supporting role in the subsequent sales of chicken seedlings.
Figure 1 Changes in egg sales
2. The reduction of aquaculture profits affects the confidence of farmers to supplement the fence
The amount of profitability of breeding directly affects the confidence of the next breeding cycle, so there is also a certain convergence between the sales volume of chicken seedlings and the profitability of breeding. According to zhuo chuang information monitoring data, the average profit of layer breeding in January was 27.07 yuan / piece, a decrease of 36.98% month-on-month, an increase of 12.65% year-on-year, significantly higher than the five-year average of 20.32 yuan / only, in the normal psychological expectations of the industry 25-30 yuan / only. As can be seen from Figure 2, since 2021, layer farming has rarely lost money, but the peak profit is difficult to compare with 2019. According to market research, in recent years, the stock of laying hens has been shrinking, the industry has too high expectations for egg prices and breeding profits, and with the improvement of feed costs and scale, the industry's confidence in supplementing the fence has been affected to a certain extent. However, in the monitoring period in the figure, the correlation coefficient between breeding profitability and chicken seedling sales was 0.34, which was a positive correlation between low and medium levels, and the impact of low profitability on medium- and long-term supplementary columns was relatively limited.
Figure 2 Profitability of layer chicken breeding and sales statistics of chicken seedlings
3. The vacancy rate of farmers continues to reach a new high
In addition to the utilization rate of eggs and the profitability of breeding, the sales volume of chicken seedlings is also closely related to the vacancy rate of farmers, and the two are long and long. In most cases, the high vacancy rate can not only indicate that the current amount of supplementary fences is low, but also indicates the probability of increased demand in the chicken seedling market in the future. The far-reaching impact of changes in aquaculture profitability on the market has led to insufficient confidence in the replenishment of the aquaculture link, and the empty column rate has gradually increased since 2020. As can be seen from Figure 3, the empty column rate reached 12.58% in January, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month and 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, a new high in recent years, and 5.39 percentage points higher than the average in recent years. In addition, the change in the empty column rate is relatively flat, and there are fewer abnormal fluctuations, which also verifies from another side that the recovery of this year's inventory needs a slow process.
Figure 3 Comparison of chicken seedling sales and farmer vacancy rate
4. Conclusion
The sales volume of chicken seedlings determines the increase at the beginning of a breeding cycle, and also determines the reduction after the end of the previous breeding cycle (the amount of eliminated chickens), which plays a decisive role in judging the stock of laying hens and the output of eggs, and has a certain forward-looking. Multi-faceted verification can be carried out through egg utilization, empty column rate, and breeding profitability. Judging by the current vacancy rate, this year's chicken seedling market demand has a large room for growth, and the probability of chicken seedling prices rising is larger, or it will have some pressure on the future egg profitability from the cost side.
Zhuo Chuang Information: Li Xia