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This once-bankrupt coal stock is about to spring and is expected to soar by nearly 30%!

author:Finance

America's well-known coal companies have come out of bankruptcy protection this month. With President Trump's big infrastructure on the horizon and his EPA director coming from an oil background, many Wall Street analysts are bullish on the coal stock.

Agency FBR & Co raised its price target for Peabody Energy (BTU) from $33 to $34, which is nearly 30 percent higher than the stock's share price of about $26.4 per share.

Analysts believe that South 32 (SOUHY), which previously will acquire Metropolitan coal, will favor the valuation of BTU (the merger is worth $200 million) because the merger has not been approved by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), as the current price of met coal has risen, Assuming a price of $300/mt in the second quarter, the mine could produce $130 million in EBITDA in 2017.

On 17 July, BTU announced that it would reinstate property rights in the assets related to metropolitan coal and Port Kembla Coal Terminal as a result of South32's termination of its acquisition contract due to regulatory approval. The mine shipped 2 million tonnes of coal in 2016 and had a proven reserve of 26 million tonnes as at 31 December 2016.

On the 13th of this month, fund Susquehanna Advisors Group disclosed that it already held 5.5% of the BTU. In addition, the fund PointState Capital disclosed that it already held 9.1% of the BTU.

On the 11th of this month, BTU filed a filing for shareholder sell-off of shares and bonds, and it is expected that 19,439,388 shares will be from Class A convertible bonds, 31,699,563 ordinary shares, 38,390,662 shares from Class A convertible bonds, and 3,504,899 shares from Warrant execution. Affected by these debt-for-equity swaps, the company may eventually have a total share capital of 137.3 million. The news caused BTU shares to fall.

When SOUHY did not abandon its acquisition of Metropolitan coal, investment bank Stifel gave BTU a target price of $29, and analysts believe that BTU came out of bankruptcy on April 3, 2017, and is currently a small alchemical coal producer with an outlook capacity of 10-11 million tons in 2017, less than the 15.7 million tons in 2015. With an EBITDA of $1.04 billion expected in fiscal 2017, its EBITDA for 2018 will be $868 million as coal prices fall in the future, while strong cash flow from 2017 will allow the company to repay half of its $950 million loan, and BTU is expected to pay a dividend of $0.5 per share in 2018.

On the trading day, institutional Seaport Global Securities also raised BTU's target price to $31, rating it as Buy, which caused BTU to surge nearly 3% pre-market.

BTU currently has a market capitalization of $2.43 billion, an Forward P/E ratio of 6.36 for the next 12 months, annual revenue (TTM) of $4.73 billion, gross profit of $607 million, and the company's total cash of $870 million and total debt of $8.1 billion.

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