(Translator's note: The author of this article is the American NBA journalist Kevin Pelton, and the content of this article does not represent the views of the translator.) The data in the text is as of February 9, Beijing time. ）
Why would Sacramento trade their best young players?
In the early hours of yesterday morning, The Famous Woj exposed a shocking news on social media, the Kings put second-year guards Halburton, Hield and other chips to the Pacers, and got two-time All-Star Player Sabonis Jr.
Sabonis will be undisputedly the best player on this team immediately after joining the Kings, and the team has not had a single player named to the All-Star team since sending Cousins to the Pelicans in 2017. Getting a player who can really be called a star may seem really important to the Kings.
However, the price is enormous, Withrre Halliburton, the 2020 Draft Pick No. 12. He finished third in last season's Rookie Poll and has made great strides again this season. Halliburton, 21, will have an infinitely bright future in Indiana.
The Kings' frontcourt lineup is already very bloated, and when Sabonis joins, how will Kindry deploy? After taking Halliburton, how exactly will the Pacers' rebuilding plan proceed? What is the value of the other players in the deal? Can Hield and Justin Holliday develop more in the new team? Let's start analyzing and giving a rating.
The Kings got: Sabonis Jr., Justin Holliday, Lamb and a 2023 second-round pick
Trade Rating: D+
Before I begin to evaluate the deal, I would like to quote one of the five trading irons mentioned by Michael Lewis in his book Penalty for Gold:
"If one day you say we have to do something, then you're in big trouble. Because you're probably going to make a pretty bad deal, you're always not going to get too hurt by the players who aren't signed. But you'll never be able to recoup costs from players who signed at the wrong price. ”
Having failed to make the playoffs in 15 years, equaling the NBA's longest absence from the playoffs in history, the Kings seem to feel they must act before this deadline, and after several unsuccessful market explorations, they lost Halliburton. The Kings keep making mistakes, and the reason they missed the playoffs for so long was because they made a lot of short-sighted decisions and trades to accomplish that goal. The kings, like all human beings, did not learn from the history of defeat, and once again they fell into the same stinking river.
First of all, it should be clear that the Kings did get a really good player , Sabonis, who has performed even better this season than he did twice before when he was an All-Star, so he was again easily named to the 2022 Cleveland All-Star roster. Sabonis has previously signed a super cost-effective contract extension with the Pacers, where his base salary is $18.5 million this season and next, and his salary for the 23-24 season in the final year of the contract is $19.4 million, and the bonus terms are not counted.
The 25-year-old Sabonis has just reached his peak and, at least for the rest of his contract, is sure to be able to play no less than his current level. But even though Sabonis was so good that he seemed to be hardly faulty, the Kings made a bad deal because they paid Harry Burton, who was four years younger than Sabonis and had only $10 million in rookie contracts for the next two years because of the low picks.
In addition to the issue of development potential, that is, combat strength and wage burden. The King will also face a chemical dilemma, and the Pacers have been struggling for years with how to get Sabonis and Turner to work better together. Eventually they found a way out, and that was to send one of them away. Admittedly, Indiana played their best game in years when Sabonis and Turner played at the same time, but both seemed to be mutually restrained for most of the time, unable to maximize their respective abilities and talents. The Pacers got rid of their troubles and now it's the Turn of the Kings, who have just completed a contract extension with starting center Holmes, who would theoretically be more incompatible with Sabonis than Turner. He couldn't provide Turner's defensive ability and had little perimeter projection on the offensive end. For the foreseeable future, Sabonis will be exhausted by chasing down opponents' outside players.
The problem is not only the combination of the inner line, but also Barnes will be greatly affected. Based on my analysis of the NBA's advanced stats, the Kings' on-court performance will improve significantly this season when Barnes plays as a big forward, with a net win difference of -4.6 points per 100 rounds, which you might think is just that. But when Barnes plays small forward — which gives him the chance to start at the same time as Sabonis and Holmes — the Kings' goal difference per 100 possessions drops to a terrible -12.8 points. Part of the reason for this discrepancy is the apparent change in opponents' three-point shooting percentages, but not all, the data will never lie, and in the current rhythm of the league, Barnes is more suitable for the No. 4 position.
Unless the Kings can make another decisive deal before the deadline, even if they get Sabonis, it will be difficult to compete with the Pelicans, who just won CJ McCollum, for the final playoff playoff spot.
After harvesting Sabonis, the Kings may change the thinking of building a team around the backcourt before changing in the future, with the inner players as the core, of course, they can also count on Fox and Mitchell to continue to improve. If there's one satisfying part of the deal, it's that the Kings shot him at the highest point of value at Halburton, rather than losing money to get Fox out, Fox has been quite bad this season, and now the trade he Kings may lose even worse, and may even not be able to get back any return worthy of the news.
Let me try to sort out the Kings' train of thought, who probably thought that Fox's slump this season was partly due to incompatibility with Halburton, after all, foxes only began his own "cliff" decline after handing over possession to the sophomore. But Fox's three-point shooting percentage of just 25 percent this season is hardly to blame on anyone else, and poor outside ability makes him virtually non-threatening when playing without the ball. In addition, according to high-level statistics, when Haliburton leaves Fox alone this season, his scoring efficiency will actually continue to decrease. Obviously, it's not just the compatibility issue with Halburton that prevents Fox from continuing to play well.
As for Mitchell, the Kings can indeed be excited about his potential on the defensive end, and for a team at the bottom of the 20-21 defensive season, a player like Mitchell is a real bonus. But on the offensive end, Mitchell didn't bring his college feel to the NBA, shooting 32 percent from three-point range and just 47 percent from two-point range this season, proving he's one of the least efficient scorers in the league right now.
In the short term, if the Kings want to get results right away, it's best to let Justin Holliday play as a starting point guard and then make Mitchell a fresh player on the bench. But if you look a little further and continue to let Mitchell find feelings on the court, betting on whether he can regain his college scoring touch may ultimately determine whether the Kings are losing money or making money. If Mitchell continues his current sluggish offensive performance, the anger of Sacramento fans may be difficult to control.
The last thing to consider is whether the Kings' current strategy will really work, because usually a team with a winning percentage of less than 50% will generally choose to send away the veterans in order to exchange some future assets to start rebuilding with the young people in the squad. But the Kings have been rebuilding for almost 20 years, and the overall weakness in the West this year has given them hope of making it into the playoffs. It's no secret that Barnes was well received in the market, and the Kings could have sent him off in exchange for some draft picks and then built a team around Fox and Halburton, but the pain of not being on the playoff stage for too long led them to choose another path at the last minute.
Optimists will compare the Kings' current moves to last year's Bulls, who received Vucevic just before last season's trade deadline, a deal that didn't work out in the short term (the Bulls failed to make the playoffs), but Chicago has won back-to-back Lonzo Ball, Caruso and DeRozan in the summer and has jumped to the Top east this season. The success of the Bulls may bring some ideas and confidence in the future operation of the king.
Unfortunately, historical experience has taught me that any optimistic expectations of Sacramento will most likely fail.
Pacers get: Halliburton, Hilde and Tristan Thompson
Trade Rating: A
We can continue from Vucevic, the Pacers did not get the similar harvest of last year's Magic in the Sabonis trade, the Magic after sending out the weapon to get the young player Carter Jr., and with the draft pick to get Wagner Jr., in addition to a future draft pick to continue to replenish new blood. But the Pacers have captured at least one of the youngest good players in years that I can remember.
Halliburton has risen to the next level every year for the past four years, in his first year at Iowa State, and although he only got a pitiful 9% usage due to the presence of veterans around him and Horton Tucker, he still seized limited opportunities and put himself on the lottery player list of various media draft predictions. In his sophomore year, when his teammates who had previously held the ball left, Halliburton immediately ushered in an explosive year and became the top three players in the multi-media simulation draft. But at the time, more people would think that Halliburton was suitable for playing a no-ball role in the NBA.
By the rookie season, Halliburton had proven on the court how wrong the team he had previously missed and some critics who thought he could only play without the ball had been wrong, he had shown excellent two-legged ability, his possession organization and split balls were amazing when blocking and dismantling offense, and he had improved his shooting speed and efficiency, shooting 41% from three-point range that season. This season, Halliburton became the King's true playmaker, averaging 7.4 assists per game. After Gentry took over the team's coaching whip and officially handed him the ball, Halliburton's average assists per game rose to 8.5 during this period, ranking sixth in the league, and all five players in front of him were selected as All-Stars.
NBA scouts have a set of inherent evaluation criteria for players, and perhaps at some point, Halliburton will indeed touch the upper limit of his talent, his thin body makes it difficult for him to block the league's most impactful defenders on the defensive end, and his left hand possession and shooting ability are also slightly insufficient, and he is often controlled by defenders.
Despite these shortcomings or weaknesses, it is important to remind you once again that Halliburton is only 21 years old, and in the position of defender, players usually do not reach the peak until the age of 28 or 9. And Halliburton's progress is there for all to see, we've seen him keep improving his weaknesses, and it won't surprise me too much if he's selected as an All-Star in the not-too-distant future.
The Pacers seem to prefer young players who already have a clear vision of the future over draft picks, and it's certainly painful to pay Sabonis, but getting Halliburton would definitely satisfy everyone at Indiana. The Pacers will be competitive next season, and assuming Turner makes a complete recovery from a left-foot injury, coupled with the return of TJ Warren, the Pacers will return to the ranks of Eastern Conference contenders in the coming year. Of course, the premise is that this summer they need to solve the problem of Warren's contract extension first, and he will become a full free agent.
Another issue for the Pacers now is to properly handle the existing players, and after getting Harry Burton, the Pacers' backcourt combination has been quite matched, Brogdon and Halliburton both have the skills of a two-way defender and can defend most of the outside positions on the court. But in addition to these two players, Duarte and Hield also need to be arranged.
Hield could be traded again, unlikely to happen before the season's deadline, the Pacers should give him a half-season observation period, and if Hield does fit in with the team, I believe the Pacers are willing to keep him and provide an insurance for Warren's health. Hield's salary this season is $22.5 million, but his future contracts are all decreasing year by year, and over time he will become a more cost-effective player. Hield is a good fit for today's league, and he's always been known for his ultra-high frequency of three-point shots with some efficiency, but his 37 percent three-point shooting percentage this season is a bit down from his career's 40 percent.
Since Halliburton + Hield's total salary in the 22-23 season is basically the same as Thatbonis + Holliday, Indiana should still have about $19 million in salary space this summer, a resource that is enough to give the Pacers a fairly advantageous position in the summer market. They are likely to be able to complete the rebuild immediately and return to the top of the East next season.
Original: Kevin Pelton
Compilation: Best Fifteenth Man