24 provinces announced the GDP of the first three quarters, and the key shortcomings of the western economy under the epidemic situation appeared

As of October 24, 24 provinces across the country have released economic data for the first three quarters of this year. Overall, the economic growth rate of the eastern region is leading, and the growth rate of the western region is relatively backward. Judging from the average growth rate of the two years, the situation in which the west leads is also changing. The normalization of the epidemic has exposed the key shortcomings of the economic growth of the western region.

The situation in the West has changed

Among the 24 provinces that have released economic data, 9 provinces are higher than or equal to the national GDP growth rate of 9.8%, namely Hubei, Hainan, Beijing, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Chongqing and Shanghai, with growth rates of 18.7%, 12.80%, 10.70%, 10.50%, 10.20%, 10.20%, 10.20%, 9.90% and 9.80% respectively.

Of the top nine provinces in terms of growth, only one is from the western region – Chongqing, ranked eighth. Moreover, zhejiang and Shandong and other economic provinces have not yet released the first three quarters of the data, and the growth rate of Zhejiang in the first half of the year ranked among the top three in the country, second only to Hubei and Hainan.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the economic growth rate in the western region has generally been lower than the national growth level. In the first quarter of this year, The national GDP grew by 18.3 percent and Sichuan by 15.8 percent, a difference of 2.5 percentage points; in the first half of this year, there was a difference of 0.6 percentage points between the two; in the first three quarters, there was still a gap of 0.5 percentage points.

Zeng Zhaoning, vice president of the Shaanxi Economics Society and professor at Xi'an Shiyou University, told First Finance and Economics that last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the impact on the western region was relatively small, while the eastern region was relatively large, so it formed a relatively high base in the western region, which affected the growth rate of the western region this year.

However, judging from the average growth rate of the two years in the first three quarters, the western region also showed signs of overall decline. Although 7 provinces in the western region in the first three quarters were higher than the two-year average growth rate of 5.2% in the country, the advantages compared with the eastern region were reduced, and the position of Guizhou Province, which had previously maintained a leading growth rate in the country, also fell by more than one, and Hainan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces became the fastest running provinces.

Among these 24 provinces, the average gdp growth rate of the first three quarters of this year in the first three years of this year was 6.8% and 6.3% respectively, ranking in the top two in the country, and Chongqing and Guizhou in the west increased by 6.2% and 5.9% respectively, ranking fifth and sixth in the country.

In addition, as the leader of the northwest, Shaanxi's economic growth rate in the first three quarters ranked second from the bottom among the 24 provinces that have been announced, only higher than Qinghai. In the first three quarters, Shaanxi Province achieved a GDP of 2,119.318 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year at comparable prices, an average growth rate of 4.1% in two years, and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the average growth rate of the two years in the first half of the year.

Zeng Zhaoning said that from the perspective of investment and consumption, Shaanxi's indicators have fallen more severely. In the first three quarters of this year, shaanxi province's fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year-on-year, an average growth rate of 0.3% in two years, while in the first half of the year, these two indicators were 10% and 4.9%, respectively. In addition, the province achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 741.578 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% year-on-year, and an average growth of 0.8% in two years.

The problem of negative investment growth also appears in Guizhou. In the first three quarters, fixed asset investment in Guizhou Province fell by 9.4% over the same period last year. Among them, investment in the primary industry increased by 21.8% over the same period last year, investment in the secondary industry increased by 9.3%, and investment in the tertiary industry fell by 15.6%.

Huang Yong, vice president of the Guizhou Academy of Social Sciences, told First Finance and Economics that under special circumstances, the epidemic situation in some provinces has been repeated, which has a greater impact on its economic growth data. In addition to these factors, the western region still relies on investment pull. The "troika" in the eastern region is relatively balanced and developed, which is different from the growth momentum of the western region.

Huang Yong said that the eastern region is a place of population inflow, whether it is an emerging group or a young population is inflow, and the income level is higher than that in the west, so consumption will maintain a steady growth momentum. Under the epidemic, the growth of foreign demand has stimulated the growth of exports. And these two aspects have also contributed to the steady growth of investment.

Structural transformation and upgrading are urgently needed

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic growth rate of the western region began to be higher than that of the eastern region, and under the impact of the epidemic last year, the economic growth of the western region was also faster than that of the eastern region, but since this year, the western region has begun to slow down, in addition to the reasons for the base, the bottleneck problem of the western region itself has also been exposed.

Yi Xiaoguang, president of the Chongqing Institute of Comprehensive Economics, also told First Finance and Economics that in recent years, the high growth in the western region has mainly come from undertaking industrial transfers at home and abroad, more is the scale growth, and the ability of scientific and technological innovation is not strong. Now affected by the epidemic, the production and living space has been compressed, and it is difficult to sustain large-scale investment promotion.

Huang Yong believes that after the epidemic, the performance of economic growth in the eastern and western regions fundamentally lies in the gap between the industrial structure and industrial level, as well as the difference in growth mode.

He believes that the biggest gap between the east and west is in the manufacturing industry. After the epidemic, the growth rate of the eastern region is higher, which is reflected in the manufacturing strength of the eastern region, which is closely related to its industrial layout and industrial chain, especially the final consumer goods, under the impact of the epidemic in the world, the orders in the eastern region have increased, while the industries in the central and western regions are mostly based on raw materials, deep processing is not enough, and the industrial chain is also short.

Judging from the data from the first three quarters, the manufacturing industry, especially the advanced manufacturing industry, has played a key supporting role in the growth of the eastern region.

For example, Beijing's industrial production has grown well, and high-end industries have played a leading role. In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size in Beijing increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and the average growth rate in two years was 17.7%. Among the key industries, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 3.3 times year-on-year, an average growth of 1 times in two years; the manufacturing industry of computers, communications and other electronic equipment increased by 21.1% year-on-year, and the average growth rate of 18.9% in two years.

Industry has driven Beijing's GDP growth, which grew by 10.7% in the first three quarters. Compared with the same period in 2019, the average growth rate in the two years was 5.3%, 0.5 percentage points higher than in the first half of the year.

Jiangsu, which is leading in growth, also shows that industrial production is growing rapidly, and advanced manufacturing is strongly supported. In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size in Jiangsu Province increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and the average growth rate of 9.5% in two years. The added value of 36 of the 40 industrial sectors increased year-on-year, with an increase of 90%.

Not only that, Zeng Zhaoning also said that in the tertiary industry, it also shows the structural difference between the east and the west. The service industry in the eastern coastal area is dominated by modern service industries such as finance and logistics, while the service industry in the western region is mainly traditional service industries such as catering, accommodation and tourism, and these industries have been greatly affected by the epidemic.

Zeng Zhaoning said that now we must build a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other, and the western region with the inward-looking economy as the mainstay should have favorable conditions for the macro situation. However, there is a big gap between the western region and the eastern region in terms of capital, technology, and talent, and it is still in the energy and resource base and primary products, and fundamentally the degree of marketization is not high.

Yi Xiaoguang said that on the whole, the economy of the western region is still performing well and has maintained a recovery trend. What the western region needs to solve now is that while fighting the epidemic repeatedly, it is necessary to continue to promote supply-side structural reform. In the future, it is more necessary to grow connotatively, accelerate the promotion of scientific and technological innovation, and make greater efforts to open up to the outside world.

"Even without the epidemic, industrial transformation and upgrading in the western region is imminent." Huang Yong said.