The smell of gunpowder on the Russian-Ukrainian border is getting stronger and stronger, what is the ukrainian economy?
Recently, the Central Bank of Ukraine released its 2021 economic report, and in the past year, Ukraine's GDP has only grown by 3%, which is lower than previous expectations.
There are many factors affecting economic recovery, such as rising energy prices, imbalances in the supply chain, etc., but after a deeper understanding, it will be found that these reasons are actually unable to avoid Russia.
Turning to energy first, Ukraine's CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose about 10 percent last year, twice the central bank's expected target. Ukrainian political experts said that if the price of natural gas in Ukraine remains at the level of 1,000 US dollars / thousand cubic meters by this summer, it will put great pressure on economic growth.
Since Ukraine's complete inversion to the West in 2015, it has stopped buying gas from Russia in favor of Europe. The point is that most of the natural gas in Europe is also bought with Russia, a big circle, and Ukraine has found a middleman to make the difference.
In order to surrender to the West, in 2019, Ukraine categorically rejected the offer of $175/thousand cubic meters given by Russia, and it is still a fixed price that does not move with the market, and it is determined to draw a line with Russia.
Who would have thought that since the second half of last year, the price of natural gas in Europe has been diving, soaring by nearly 600% in the same period, and Ukraine has also suffered a lot of losses. In the words of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanudek, "the Ukrainian people were forced to buy gas with an extra $5 billion from their wallets."
In addition to natural gas, Ukraine is affected by imbalances in global supply chains and faces a shortage of thermal coal. Ukrainian energy companies revealed that the current coal inventory of thermal power plants is less than half of that of previous years, the gap is as high as 1 million tons, and in a few months, Ukraine will face the risk of widespread power outages or sharp rises in electricity prices.
In this regard, the current Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmegar said that we will try our best to reduce Ukraine's national debt to about half of GDP and maintain macro-financial stability.
Now it seems that this goal is highly likely to be achieved. As the Ukrainian border crisis intensified, Western countries sold weapons and equipment to Ukraine and provided loans. The European Union urgently extended an additional €1.2 billion to Ukraine, and Canada contributed $120 million.
Not to mention the United States, in just one week, has shipped 3 batches of arms to Ukraine, according to US media reports, Biden has signed the fourth batch of aid documents, it is difficult to catch Zelenskiy's stupid money, of course, it must be hard to be energetic.
In addition to these, trade with Russia is not as good as before, and it is also an important reason for the obstruction of Ukraine's economic recovery. Customs data show that in the first half of 2021, Ukraine's share of total foreign trade with Russia fell from 1.7% in the same period of 2020 to 1.5%.
Don't underestimate the 0.2% gap, you know, Russia's position in Ukraine's foreign trade economy is second only to China and Germany. Stretching the timeline, since 2014, the trade relationship between Russia and Ukraine has deteriorated, with Ukraine losing a total of $50 billion, or 2% of GDP, and the trade volume between the two sides has fallen by more than 80%.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian currency hryvnia has continued to depreciate, and as of January 25, the hryvnia has depreciated by about 4% against the US dollar. However, the winter has not yet passed, and the Ukrainian people still have to pay for expensive gas, even though the money in their hands is becoming less and less valuable.
Let's say that before this battle is fought, Ukraine already owes a bunch of debts, and there is no way to live for the people. A few days ago, angry small and medium-sized business owners nearly stormed the Ukrainian parliament building because of a mandatory tax bill.
The oligarchs' taxes do not rise, and the squeezing of small traders is not at all soft. "The poor ghost's money is divided into three or seven accounts, and the original amount of money of the four major families is returned", Master Tang sincerely did not deceive me.