Cotton City Daily
Zheng cotton futures
On January 28, Zheng Mian fell significantly, cf2205 contract opened at 21760 yuan / ton, followed by a sharp reduction in positions all the way down, the end of the session fell 240 points to close at 21495 yuan /
ton. Cotton enterprises in the mainland and Xinjiang have taken holidays, cotton processing activities have stopped, spot prices have remained firm, the progress of new cotton sales has been significantly slower than in the same period, downstream textile enterprises have also stopped production and holidays, and the market purchase and sales are cold. Overall, today is the last trading day before the holiday, both bulls and bears to avoid risks, have chosen to reduce their positions and leave, it is difficult to have a trend market in the short term, and continue to maintain shocks.
New York futures prices
On January 28, the ICE March contract fell 70 points at 121.63 cents; the May contract fell 119.36 cents, down 56 points; and the volume was 21631 lots, a decrease of 2852 lots. Although the SIGNING PERFORMANCE OF US COTTON LAST WEEK WAS EXCELLENT AND SHIPMENTS REMAINED STABLE, the positives of the export weekly report have been digested in the market, and the DOLLAR rose sharply to a new high in the current round of the market on the same day, suppressing the sentiment of the cotton market, and ICE futures closed down. With the Fed raising interest rates approaching, a strong dollar will dampen the rise in cotton prices in the short term. Judging from the past situation, the probability of large fluctuations in the outer market during the Chinese Spring Festival is not small.
Cotton price tracking
On January 28, the average price of imported cotton arriving at Hong Kong (M index) was 138.64 cents / lb, up 1.4 cents / lb from the 26th, the import cost of 1% tariff (excluding port miscellaneous fees) was 21439 yuan / ton, the import cost of the discounted quasi-tax (excluding port miscellaneous fees) was 21532 yuan / ton; the average price of domestic 3128 cotton (B index) was 22101 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the 26th. Xinjiang cotton Shandong to the factory price of 3128B grade 22630 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan / ton from the 26th; the national cotton basis index CNCottonJ (CF2205) 1809 yuan / ton, up 7 yuan / ton from the 27th.
Cotton City News
Xinjiang
Since late January, the quotation of 3137 grade long-staple cotton in the Xinjiang Supervision Library has been stable at 47500-48000 yuan / ton, a slight increase compared with December. Although the indicators such as the color and length of Xinjiang long-staple cotton in 2021/22 are not ideal, the high-quality long-staple cotton is very expensive and the sentiment of reluctance to sell is not affected by the recent low inquiries and low transaction volume.
Judging from the survey, farmers in Aksuawati, Kucha and Keping are more willing to expand the planting area of long-staple cotton in 2022. Some large and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises and cotton processing enterprises plan to support large cotton growers and cooperatives to expand the planting of long-staple cotton and reduce the area of fine-lint cotton. At present, the price difference between long-staple cotton lint cotton and fine-lint cotton has reached 24,000-25,000 yuan / ton, and the income from the acquisition and processing of cotton enterprises is higher, and the average delivery price of long-staple cottonseed cotton in Aksu region in 2021/22 has reached 13-13.5 yuan / kg, and the income from cotton planting is higher than that of fine wool cotton.
In the past two years, the yield gap between xinjiang long-staple cotton and fine-lint cotton has been narrowing, and the yield of some farmers has reached 350-380 kg/mu, and it is not uncommon to break through 400 kg/mu. The 2020/2021 long-staple cotton machine harvesting was successful in the Aksu region, and the growth of long-staple cotton planting area entered the fast lane. Keping a large cotton grower said that the cost of long-staple cotton and fine-lint cotton plantation is not much different, with the increase in the yield of long-staple cotton and the realization of the whole process of mechanization, will greatly improve the enthusiasm of farmers to plant, and then enhance the mainland cotton textile, clothing export competitiveness.
Outer yarn
According to customs statistics, cotton yarn exports grew rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a rapid year-on-year increase of 15.95%, showing a trend of grabbing international market share. First, since 2021/22, the price of cotton and cotton yarn in India and Pakistan has risen sharply, and the price of foreign disk quotations and Chinese cotton yarn prices has become more and more large, not only Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and other countries of spinning enterprises have gradually purchased Chinese yarn, and some weaving mills in India have also increased their external mining efforts; second, compared with Central Asian Uzbekistan yarn, Turkmenistan yarn and some Southeast Asian cotton yarn, Chinese yarn is not only of good quality, but also has high stability, strong consistency and guaranteed supply capacity, which is conducive to spinning enterprises to take long orders.
International Cotton
According to Indian media reports, the current domestic cotton supply and demand in India is tight, the market remains bullish, and cotton farmers hold cotton to sell, so cotton prices may be close to historical highs in the coming months.
A flower yarn trader in the country said that the current daily listing volume of new cotton in India is about 150,000 bales, compared with 200,000 bales in the same period of previous years, and it is obvious that cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, waiting for a better price.
According to the Gujarat Cotton Trade Association, cotton processing at ginneries in western India decreased year-on-year in November and December 2021 due to lower than expected new cotton listings. However, textile mills are well stocked and do not panic purchase.
According to the data of the US Agricultural Counselor, the cumulative number of new cotton on the market in India this year reached 13.48 million bales, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. ICRA, an Indian industry research institute, said that Indian spinning mills have purchased a large number of low-cost cotton raw materials from the previous year, so the business operation has benefited a lot this fiscal year.
The US Agricultural Counselor report also believes that the demand for Indian cotton yarn and high-quality cotton textiles will remain strong, the price of Indian cotton will remain at a high level, and the price will not fall significantly. Rising domestic cotton demand and tight cotton fundamentals will support cotton prices.