At the "Normandy model" quartet talks, it was agreed that the ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine should continue to be observed. Photo/CCTV screenshot
According to Xinhua News Agency on January 27, Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France held a "Normandy model" four-party talks in Paris on Wednesday local time, and after eight hours of deliberations, Russia and Ukraine agreed that all parties should continue to abide by the ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine. A new round of talks will take place in Berlin in two weeks.
"Normandy Model" negotiations: temporarily tearing down the war fuse
Ahead of more than eight hours of negotiations in Paris, France, amid the clouds of war on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the quadripartite held talks in Paris, France, and before the talks, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said the meeting was a "strong signal of readiness for a peaceful settlement." In the past month or so, around the Ukrainian crisis, the parties have taken turns to negotiate, almost exhausted all diplomatic means, and the previously unpromising "Normandy model" has unexpectedly made progress, cooling the escalating war situation.
Of course, the "Normandy model" negotiations only want to maintain the previous agreement on a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, and do not involve the current structural dilemma, that is, whether Ukraine will join NATO. In any case, the outcome of the Normandy negotiations offered a glimmer of hope for peace.
The "Normandy model" is an attempt by European powers such as France and Germany to ease the situation and resolve the contradictions between Europe and Russia after the Crimean crisis. The Minsk agreement, reached in 2015, led to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Although it was only a ceasefire agreement, it has now become one of the few "cuts" to crack the Ukrainian crisis.
After the many rounds of talks between the United States and Russia, Russia and NATO, Russia and the OSCE, especially after the talks between the US and Russian foreign ministers in Geneva, the Ukrainian crisis has still not made progress, and the window for diplomatic settlement seems to be slowly closing. The "Normandy model" negotiations cannot be said to be a last resort, but the outside world's view is also that "dead horses should be live horses". The United States and NATO have not managed To get Russia, can France and Germany? Poland believes that there are only three models for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, that is, the United States and Russia, Russia - NATO, Russia - the OSCE, and does not include the Normandy model.
The outcome of the "Normandy model" negotiations could, at least temporarily, tear down the fuse for war in eastern Ukraine. An important reason why the parties can reach a minimum consensus is that if this negotiation fails again, the window for peace negotiations may be closed. Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany have repeatedly stressed the need for war, and the "Normandy model" negotiations were the last straw for the Quartet's quest for peace. Therefore, it is not that Germany and Germany are more appealing than the United States, but by timing.
The multi-level game between the Western system and Russia
Since the crisis in Ukraine broke out again in November last year, the situation has deteriorated sharply, and the danger of war is imminent. The dignity of the great powers and the survival of the small states are tied together, and all sides seem to be driven to the corner, with no way back.
Historically, many wars have been forced under pressure from all sides to have "no choice." The Crimean War of the 1850s seemed neither reasonable nor possible to posterity, but britain and France fought a fierce war against Russia, a christian power, for the Ottoman Empire.
History may not be repeated, but the rhythm of history sometimes repeats itself. Around the Ukrainian crisis, the Western system and Russia have carried out a multi-level game, the core contradiction is the Western international system to expand to the east, while Russia reorganized the "former Soviet space", Ukraine is precisely at the key point of the struggle between the two major forces, unable to move.
From Russia's point of view, the West is pressing forward step by step, and Russia has no way to retreat. Since Peter I, Russia has not been as desperate and helpless in Europe as it is today. If Ukraine had turned to the West, Russia would have almost returned to the days of the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
Since the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, Russia's efforts to reshape the "space of the former Soviet Union" have not stopped, and the Crimean crisis, the Belarusian crisis, and the recent attack of the CSTA in Kazakhstan are all part of Russia's military efforts and attempts to reshape the surrounding security environment by military means. According to this inertia, Ukraine has been sandwiched by the Russian army in three ways, which has really caused a deterrent to Ukraine and the West.
From the perspective of the Western system, it can be roughly divided into two factions, one faction is the main war, and the other is the main peace. NATO Secretary-General, Britain, the United States are hardliners, even the main war faction, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has been making commitments on the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO, and the United Kingdom and the United States have recently provided military equipment to Ukraine and strengthened the military deployment of NATO allies in Eastern Europe. The United States recently responded in writing to Russia's request for security assurances, but the specifics were not disclosed.
Germany and France, especially Germany, refused to provide Military Equipment to Ukraine, but instead provided a field hospital. One of Germany's major concerns is the problem of gas pipelines, once the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the gas pipeline through Ukraine is blocked, including Germany, the EU countries will face energy shortages. To reassure Germany, the United States is looking for sources of natural gas for the European Union from the Middle East.
The "Normandy model" negotiations provide a ladder for all parties to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis, but they may not be able to get the big powers off the donkey. Both the United States and Russia have staked the dignity and credibility of great powers, and if both sides can redraw The European context and build a new framework of security guarantees, it could be the first time in European history that a security framework has not been reached through war.
The recent series of actions taken by the United States, such as announcing the withdrawal of diplomatic personnel, sending weapons to Ukraine, and threatening to sanction President Putin himself, have neither released the sincerity of strategic negotiations nor prepared for large-scale intervention in war, and have played an inglorious role in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
The "Normandy model" negotiations provide only an opportunity to ease and restart negotiations, sometimes fleetingly.
Beijing News special writer | Sun Xingjie (Professor, Deputy Director, Institute of International Relations, Jilin University)
Edit | Chi Daohua
Proofreading | Li Lijun