<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="1" > futures market</h1>
The main force of Shanghai copper fell 620 at 68780 yuan / ton, down 620 in recent months at 68780 yuan / ton, and the period copper closed at the recent support level, dominated by wide range shocks.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="90" > spot market</h1>
Domestic spot copper trading range of 69120-69360 yuan / ton, down 615 yuan / ton from the previous quotation, the holder of the premium b180-b420 yuan / ton shipment, the rise of the premium fell 75 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Period copper wants to rise first, the afternoon decline narrowed to 0.66%; the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was closed in the last period, the outer market suddenly changed, once fell below the 9000 support, but after the opening of the morning rebounded strongly, the overall center of gravity moved down; the spot market premium fell slightly, the willingness to receive goods increased, and the transaction was more active than before the holiday.
In terms of specific water lifting, Pingshui copper premium in South China is 335 yuan / ton of first-line shipments; Pingshui copper premium in Shanghai is 300 yuan / ton on the first line and up and down; other regions are quoted to follow the futures, and there are fewer transactions in Shandong, mainly long orders.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="91" > copper market observation</h1>
In the days after the holiday, the trend of copper in the period has fluctuated greatly, and in response to the sentence, "people at home want to take a holiday, and people abroad will really play." The main force of copper in the middle of the session in recent months has not been separated, the social inventory of the spot copper market is low, the spot transaction is slightly better than before the holiday, and the pre-National Day stocking atmosphere has improved slightly. The main reason for the market change is that the overseas risk aversion is heating up, and most of the non-ferrous people are running empty, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support of 68,000 yuan / ton and the content of this Fed meeting.
(The mini program has been added here, please go to today's headline client to view)
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="92" > today's copper scrap market overview and tomorrow's forecast</h1>
The main force of Shanghai copper fell 620 at 68780 yuan / ton, and fell 620 in recent months at 68780 yuan / ton, closing down 0.89% in recent months. After the end of the holiday, the outer disk rebounded strongly, driving the inner disk to stand at 68500 yuan / ton short-term support; the scrap copper spot quotation was chaotic, and the manufacturer's point price transaction, but because the current rebound market did not end, the holders waited and watched, the fine waste price difference was not opened, and the recycled copper market was poorly traded.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="93" > [Copper Market Closing Comment] Overseas risk aversion hit Shanghai copper intraday Shanghai copper bottom rebound</h1>
Shanghai copper for the month/main force (2110) contract closed: 68780 fell 620, the position decreased by 3832 lots;
Shanghai copper (2111) contract closed: 68620 fell 630, the position increased by 3422 lots;
Shanghai copper (2112) contract closed: 68530 down 640, the position increased by 2467 lots;
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="94" > macro message:</h1>
According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in September is 100%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 0.25%-0.50% range is 0%; the probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="95" > industry news:</h1>
According to a monthly report released by the International Copper Research Organization (ICSG), there was a supply gap of 90,000 tons in the global refined copper market in June 2021, compared with a surplus of 4,000 tons in May (higher than the previous estimate of excess 2,000 tons). In the first six months of this year, the global refined copper market was short of 2,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 67,000 tons in the same period last year.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="96" > closing roundup:</h1>
This Shanghai copper low opened a strong rebound, converging most of the decline in the festival, and the shanghai copper main 2110 contract closed to 68780 (-620, -0.89%) by the end of the day. The turmoil in the overseas market during the Mid-Autumn Festival has led to a recent new low in copper prices, and at present, Most of the declines in Shanghai copper have converged and returned to the previous shock range of 68,500-70,000. On the news side, the Evergrande incident spread, and the domestic real estate industry earthquake affected the market's concern about copper terminal demand. Superimposed near the Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and the momentum of Shanghai copper has weakened after entering the shock range. At night, the Fed news is about to land, pay attention to the fluctuation of copper prices, and the fundamentals are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillating market of Shanghai copper, or stabilize the market. Pay attention to the situation in the range of 68,500-70,000. In operation, the cargo merchant can ship appropriately, the downstream stock is the main wait-and-see, and the customer who has taken the goods in the morning is waiting for the news to land.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="99" > today's non-ferrous metal market analysis</h1>
Non-ferrous metals in this Shanghai period have risen and fallen, and the variety differentiation is more obvious. Among them, the Shanghai tin main contract closed up 6.6%, refreshing the high point again; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed up more than 2%, the first increase; the Shanghai lead main contract closed down 3%. During the Asian trading session, LME metals rose more, tin prices rose more than 3%, and copper and aluminum rose more than 2%. In addition to the tin price continued to rise sharply, lead prices fell sharply, the rest of the varieties mostly corrected the trend of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Different supply and demand prospects, corresponding to different metal trends.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="97" > spot market</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="98" > futures market</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="100" > tomorrow's non-ferrous metals market trend forecast</h1>
copper
aluminium
Driven by the continuous rise of the outer disk nonferrous, Shanghai aluminum after the low opening of the high again, the intraday station above 23,000, as of the close, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23080, up 465, up 2.06%; recently, Jiangsu, Anhui and Guangdong and other places have received mandatory power ration notices, dongguan part of the ordinary enterprises require power outages for four days, high-energy-consuming enterprises blackout for a week; under the continuous power rationing requirements, the production and manufacturing of various enterprises received a certain degree of impact, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are more seriously restricted. Under the further intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, the subsequent aluminum price is still expected to rise, and the main focus is on the 2.3-2.35 million range shock, which can be bought on demand in operation, and the spot aluminum is expected to rise tomorrow.
lead
Lun lead fell back for 7 consecutive days, the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, Shanghai lead also made up for the decline sharply, continued to fall after falling below 14,500, once fell to the low since late October 2020, as of the close, the main 2110 contract fell 440 at the end of the day, down 3%, closed at 14220, the short-term weak pattern did not change, Or in the range of 1.41-1.46 million shocks, spot lead continues to remain sluggish, the pressure on primary lead supply is larger, lead inventories continue to be at a high level, consumption is still not as expected, the peak season is not strong, and the trend of low lead prices in the later period does not change.
zinc
Today's Shanghai zinc narrow range shock, stop falling and turn red. As of the close, Shanghai zinc closed at 22790, up 30, or 0.13%. Affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shaanxi and other regions have curtailed power and reduced production, the downstream operation is poor, and the peak consumption season may continue to be postponed. And the smelting end is stored in advance in winter, making the supply of zinc ingots tight. However, the NDRC has proposed that it will continue to dump reserves, or will alleviate the tight supply situation. It is expected that the short-term oscillation of Shanghai zinc is strong.
tin
This Shanghai tin main force broke through 270,000, up 6.6%, continue to refresh the record high, low inventory support, short-term tin prices are still strong running, the lower support correction to near 252,000, it is expected that the spot tin ingots on Thursday will continue to be significantly raised, the disk surface is pulled up, the upstream smelter quotation is cautious, some of the suspension of quotations, the market transaction just needs to be most.
nickel
Due to the weakening of the Mid-Autumn Festival, shanghai nickel opened low today, and then gradually rose, closing at 144030, 540 higher than last Friday's closing price, 660 lower than last Friday's settlement price, and the intraday trading range between 140930-145420. Jinchuan Group lowered the factory price by 500, spot nickel prices were lowered, Jinchuan premiums increased slightly, Russian nickel premiums did not change much, nickel bean premiums maintained between 600-700 yuan / ton, spot market activity was better than before the holiday, merchants said that shipments were acceptable, some people took orders at a low level in an appropriate amount, and the market believed that the short-term nickel price fell space is limited. Macro: Markets await the Fed's monetary policy statement at 2:00 a.m. and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. The recent Evergrande debt crisis has attracted market attention, and the International Monetary Fund has expressed confidence that the Chinese government has a way to stop the situation from deteriorating.
In August, domestic nickel ore, ferronickel, refined nickel and stainless steel imports increased significantly compared with July, improving domestic supply relations and shorting nickel prices. But at the same time, the market also sees that under the background of high nickel prices, the Chinese market is still high in the purchase of nickel, which is good for nickel prices. The latest global data report predicts that global nickel production will grow by 6.8% this year. The Russian side said it was finalizing the final tax law adjustment for metal ore, which will be implemented up to next year. Indonesia's nickel ban or tax plan, although questioned and many opposition voices, still make the hollow side feel uneasy. Today's nickel inventory decreased by 906 to 165882 tons, shanghai nickel futures warehouse receipts fell by 597 to 5689 tons, and nickel stocks in the bonded area were further reduced. Overall, we believe that the supply and demand level is biased towards the current nickel price. From the perspective of the LME disk, on Tuesday, Lun nickel fell below 185,000 after a strong recovery, this Lun nickel once again broke through 192,000 US dollars, although the current price fell back below 19,200, but the overall technical signal is still strong. At two o'clock in the morning tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will issue a monetary policy statement, and at 2:30, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech, and the meeting and the content of the speech will have a huge impact on nickel prices.