According to The Sports Weekly all-media reporter Kong Dexin reported
How likely are the digital people to fish Harden?
Anchor of this issue: Nets Fan Radio Director Kong Dexin
On January 25, Beijing time, The Athletic's Shams Charanje and Sam Amik jointly released materials, and the 76ers are likely not to sell Ben Simmons before the trade deadline, but to wait until this summer to try to get James Harden.
Multiple teams interested in Simmons believe the 76ers have set their sights on a bigger target for the summer: James Harden. Multiple sources, including those with direct knowledge of the 76ers' ideas and other team sources, say the 76ers would prefer to pursue Harden or other superstars this summer by signing first and then switching rather than sending Simmons away by a deadline. Ta's article reads.
In fact, this is not the first time Harden's name has been associated with the Philadelphia 76ers. Former New York Times reporter Mark Stan, ESPN's Venhorst and Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompeo have spoken in different tones about the 76ers' intention for Harden, and their reports have only made the rumors look more visible.
So how far are the 76ers from Harden? Do these rumors really mean that the Nets need to be cautious about this?
76ers for Harden practical analysis
Let's start by imagining a philadelphia ideal world in which Harden doesn't want to play for Brooklyn anymore and wants to bring his talent to Philadelphia, so he decides to jump out of the player option and name the 76ers. In such a situation, what do the 76ers need to do to get Harden?
The first way, of course, is to sign first and then change. But here are three numbers that need to be highlighted:
$14,650,000. That's about the starting salary for Harden to sign the top salary, and it's also the contract we can imagine Harden will seek. That would obviously be more than 35 percent of the salary cap, but since Harden's salary this season is $44.3 million, his starting salary for his new contract could be 105 percent of the previous year's contract, so Harden can take that much money.
$29,740.000. That's about the total amount of the current 76ers' in-team contract next season, and Simmons certainly isn't counted. The money covered the contracts of 8 players, namely Embiid, Tobias Harris, Curry Jr., Kolkmaz, Sable, Niang, Maxi and Springer. Excludes non-guaranteed contract players such as Danny Green, Milton, Isaiah Joe, Paul Reid or Charles Bussi.
$315.2 million. This is about next season's local tycoon line, and the local tycoon line every year is about 6-7 million on the luxury tax line. When a team gets a player who is signed first and then traded, they need to keep the team's total salary below the local tycoon line for the next full year. The luxury tax line for the new season is expected to be 145 million, so the local luxury line is about 152 million.
After clarifying these three numbers, we can do math problems. If the 76ers get Harden through a trade-off, they need to build a roster within a total salary of $152 million. In addition to Simmons, the team also has a salary of 97.4 million, plus Harden's maximum salary of 144 million. Suppose Philadelphia doesn't trade the remaining 8 players with contracts, but only trades Simmons and other non-guaranteed contract players and the Nets (like Milton, 2 million). The 76ers are only about 8 million left from the local tycoon line, and the team has at least 6 people to sign to fill the roster. The basic salary of the veteran next season is about 1.8 million, and the basic salary of 6 is 11 million. That means the 76ers can't complete the job with a full base salary, and they need to sign some cheap drafts.
In this mode, it was almost impossible for the 76ers to use the middle-class exception. Assuming the 76ers can't find a team to take over Harris' contract, it will be difficult for them to make a deal. Curry Jr., Sable and Maxi all have great value contracts, which means that even if they are traded, it will be difficult to exchange for players who are more powerful or equal at the same salary. At that time, harden, Harris, Embiid's total salary will occupy 75% of the team's space, although The value contracts of Maxi, Sable and Curry make it not completely impossible to form a lineup, but it will still be difficult.
The constraints of the local tycoon line will only exist for a year, but given that Harden has already had a downward trend this season, can the 76ers believe that waiting another year will have a better outcome? Of course, the 76ers may be able to exchange Harris for some cheaper players, or Harden may be willing to reduce his salary to help the team. But under the constraints of the local tycoon line, it is not so easy for them to build a championship team around Harden and Embiid.
The second way is for the 76ers to directly clear the space to sign Harden, who is free to play. By the way, the 76ers' way to avoid hard hats is to trade Harden immediately, but this scene is unlikely. So Philadelphia is left with only another way to clear out space in the summer. The salary cap is expected to be $119 million next season, and the 76ers have more than 130 million registered contracts next season, and they need to dump about 60 million salaries. It's almost impossible to do that, but they also have extreme ways to operate.
The Thunder can now clear more than $34 million of space, and they can eat straight into Tobias Harris' contract, giving up to 76ers some expired contracts. The deal naturally requires the 76ers to increase their draft pick chips to impress the Thunder, but the 76ers already owe the Thunder a first-round pick right now. The talks opened on at least 76 people coming up with the 2022 first round, plus some other future chips. For example, the 76ers can remove the protection of the 2025 first round that owes the Thunder, and then they can move the first round of 2027 or 28. Wanting the Thunder to eat Harris' 2-year, 75 million contract does require some leverage to impress the other side.
If the 76ers can clear Harris, the next step is to send Ben Simmons away. They still need to negotiate with a team with space to get back the draft pick. That sounds easier than done, and there are only three teams with plenty of room this summer: Spurs, Pistons and Magic. The first two have been exposed as having an interest in Simmons.
All this is unheard of in history, and at the moment when Simmons is reluctant to return to the team, the 76ers are unlikely to lose the draft pick and send Harris away right now, and it is not difficult to simply exchange Simmons for draft picks. Taking a step back, the Thunder have little reason to take over Harris, which would put them at risk of overstepping taxes next season, when Kemba Walker's dead money is still on the books and Alexander's top salary is in effect.
Adam AND Ant, a chinese labor agreement blogger, designed a tripartite deal between the Pelicans, Kings and the 76ers that would allow the 76ers to clear simmons and Harris at the same time, giving them four first-round picks and plenty of space. But the possibility of the deal coming to fruition is still limited, and there is already news that the Kings are reluctant to move Fox and Haliburton, and the team wants to build a team with them as the core.
But in theory alone, the 76ers clear space also existed, and it would allow them to be exempt from the hard hat and could be left behind by Danny Green or other reinforcement operations.
76 people are willing to wait for ≠ have confidence
The practical part is already cumbersome, but that's already in an extremely ideal situation. Now let's go back to reality, can the 76ers really get Harden's favor?
Many people see the rumors and have this kind of thinking: since so many reporters have broken the news, the 76 people also dare to spend a year with Simmons, indicating that they are very confident in trading Harden!
This derivation is not reliable. According to Charanje's report, the 76ers have two main chips to attract Harden: the first is that they have the ability to compete for the championship, Embiid plays the MVP level performance, harden at this stage puts the championship first, he has never partnered with the inside line of this level; the second is that the 76ers management and Harden have old friends, Philadelphia has tried to change back to Harden from the Rockets, and they still feel that they have a chance.
But these two chips are not so attractive. In fact, the reason the 76ers are willing to wait may be that they don't want to sell Simmons cheaply. Ta's article mentions that "the 76ers prefer to pursue Harden or other superstars this summer by signing first and then changing", and this other superstar includes Lillard, Beal, Jaylen Brown and so on. These names may not be as tempting as Harden, but they are also more than the power that Simmons can get back before the Philadelphia deadline, so the 76ers wait is not just aimed at Harden. On the other hand, the article pointed out that the 76ers did not rush to improve their combat effectiveness. Maxi's growth and Embiid's MVP level have given the team a battle, and they have no reason to rush to send Simmons away in order to improve their short-term combat strength.
Embiid has mentioned in an interview before that he is satisfied with the current situation of the team, they have enough competitiveness, which also gives the management the confidence to wait for the most ideal offer.
The 76ers are confident ≠ can change
Taking a step back, even if the 76ers think they have confidence in getting Harden, it doesn't mean that the probability of this happening is very high.
First, Harden himself has to come up with an attitude that must be 76ers, and for now we don't see any signs of that. The Well-organized Nets still have the greatest hope of winning the title, while the New York market is fertile enough that Harden chose to come here. Irving's problems are indeed tricky, but joining the 76ers means re-running, and no one can guarantee that Harden and Embiid will have the desired chemistry.
Second, the Nets have no obligation to adult beauty. The 76ers are more likely to get Harden's way or sign first and then change, and this requires the Nets to cooperate. Usually, teams that are willing to sign first and then change players are because they don't want to let them go in vain, but Harden's situation is different. As mentioned earlier, there are only a few teams with space this summer, will the Pistons, Magic or Spurs be willing to give Harden a maximum salary? Will Harden himself go to these teams? This scene is obviously not going to happen, so Harden's options are also limited. Signing a contract with the Nets allows him to get a big contract and the prospect of a championship at the same time, and it is the Nets who have the initiative to sign and exchange. Will they send Harden to a competitor in the same division?