There are several main reasons for the decline in these two days:
One is that the high sector and the Shanghai Composite Index have already shown signs of lack of strength and need for adjustment;
The second is the superimposed holiday fund hedging factor;
The third is the continuous wind blowing on the periphery, suppressing the rise of resource stocks.
That's why it has formed a continuous decline of these two days.
After the opening of the market this afternoon, because the J line of the 120-minute KDJ has bottomed out and slowed down, indicating that the selling pressure has decreased, there are many sectors that have signs of funds entering the market to slightly bottom out, and this wave of rebound is expected to continue until after the holiday.
However, for the resource sector with greater selling pressure, it is still difficult to stabilize quickly after the Mid-Autumn Festival.
For the sake of risk aversion, funds flow into the pharmaceutical, liquor and other sectors in the short term, which still have a certain room for attack and are not easy to peak quickly.
But whether the mid-line inflection point can continue to strengthen here is not yet known.
If you want to continue to strengthen, you must continue to decline in the second echelon, so that there may be a change of funds.
In general, the overall risk of the market is not large, and the risk is mainly concentrated in the high-level sector, so the sector that has been fully adjusted is actually safer.
Well, today we will say less, during the festival we will continue to sort out the content of the relevant news surface for everyone to analyze.
I wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival and a happy family.
【Plate Classification】
"Sectors of Focus in the Medium and Long Term" (Good Sustainability of Large Cycles) –
Small metals, resource stocks, chemical resources, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics,
Infrastructure, machinery, new energy (double carbon)
"Short-term and medium-term focus sectors" (good cycle continuity between daily and monthly lines) –
"Short-term pull up is not in place (daily line)":
Pork, white wine
"Short-term mid-term risk: (Weekly line is difficult to stabilize)":
"Short-term risk: (daily line is difficult to stabilize)":
All sectors that rebounded and contracted
"Short-term may be adjusted into place"
"Intraday adjustment may be in place"
Chemical, Cement, Electric Power, CRO
【Core Plate Analysis】
【The following is only a personal opinion, for reference only】
Bank:
Mid-tier stocks and funds: recusal;
Short-term: Short-term may rebound, but it is difficult to sustain;
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insurance:
Short-term: The short-term line should rebound, but it is difficult to continue to pull up;
Brokerage:
Medium-term stocks and funds: you can consider entering the market in batches at a low price;
Short-term: There should be room for rebound in the short-term line, but it is difficult to continue to pull up;
Small metals (cobalt, tungsten, lithium, etc.):
Medium-term stocks and funds: the medium-term line continues to oscillate upwards with a high probability, looking for short-term bottom opportunities;
Short-term: funds leave the market, the daily decline is not in place, and there should be adjustments after the holiday;
copper:
Midline: low-lying layout;
aluminium:
Short-term: funds leave the market, the daily decline is not in place, there should be an adjustment after the holiday; (but stronger than copper)
coal:
Short-term: the rebound is weak, there should be a decline;
steel:
Phosphorus Chemical:
Short-term: the adjustment is not strong, and there should be shock finishing behind, but it is safer;
Fluorine chemical industry:
Short-term: ibid.;
cement:
Medium-term stocks and funds: the probability of mid-line oscillation upward is large;
Short-term: there is still a demand for shock bottoming in the intraday cycle, but it is not easy to fall sharply;
Industrial mother machine:
Industrial Machinery/ General Machinery / Special Machinery:
Short-term: the daily decline is not in place, there should be adjustments after the holiday, but the overall safety, the downside space is not large;
Chip/Semiconductor (Big Tech Representative):
Medium-term stocks and funds: Recently, institutions have begun to gradually increase their positions, which can be paid attention to;
Short-term: rebound as expected, the strength is acceptable, there should be room for rebound;
Military:
Medium-term stocks and funds: the middle-line pull-up is not in place, and the short-term dip enters the market;
Short-term: the daily decline is not in place, and there should be an adjustment after the holiday;
New Energy Vehicles/Vehicles:
New energy vehicles: the daily decline is not in place, and there should be adjustments after the holiday;
Vehicle: the daily decline is not in place, and there should be adjustments after the holiday;
photovoltaic:
Carbon Trading, Electricity:
Mid-tier stocks and funds: can be followed;
Short:
Carbon trading: there should be adjustments after the holiday, but the overall safety, there is little room for decline;
Electricity: short-term risk is not large, you can find opportunities to adjust the layout;
medicine:
CRO: There is a pullback during the day, but the amount will be pulled up;
Medical beauty: has rebounded, observe the amount of energy, only the amount can be sustained;
Vaccine: has rebounded, observation of the amount of energy, only the amount of release can be sustained;
Liquor/Sake:
Medium-term stocks and funds: near the bottom of the middle line, can be sucked low in batches;
Short-term: has rebounded, is not in place at present, observe the amount of energy, only the amount can be sustained;
beer:
Medium-tier stocks and funds: active position reduction;
Short-term: follow liquor;
pork:
Short-term: pulled up as scheduled, not in place at present, but not strong, can not chase high;
Water:
Medium line: trend plate, worthy of continuous attention, and find a small cycle bottom to enter the market;
Short-term: the bottom of the 30-minute contraction should rebound, but it is not easy to continue to pull up, and there should be adjustments;
shipping:
Short-term: there is still a need for adjustment in 60 minutes, and 120DEA will not go back;
Digital Currency:
Midline: Held;
Small Cap (Micro Cap):
Midline: Wait and see;
Short-term: 60 minutes down the volume, but also need to shock to build the bottom;
Media, online games, online education, papermaking:
Midline: no operational value;
Short-term: funds smash the market to leave the market, short-term risk;