Last year's theme hotline must be new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, doubling stocks abound. Among them, the market value of the Ningde era of the battery link has exceeded the trillion mark, and taking over the baton Moutai has become the new belief of shareholders.
According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the annual installed capacity of CATL in 2021 is 80.51GWh, accounting for 52.1% of the domestic market, far ahead of the second PLACE BYD. Therefore, the market has been expected to rise second-tier battery manufacturers to dilute the market share of the Ningde era, but from the stock price point of view, market expectations have been beaten in the face, Ningwang's stock price increase in the past year is still leading the sector, the annual increase of 68.12%.
In hindsight, the reason is also very simple, on the one hand, the overall demand of the industry is still in a state of rapid growth; on the other hand, in the absence of subversive technology, the manufacturing industry is destined to be strong Hengqiang, and the scale advantage of Ning Wang is enough to blow up any opponent.
Source: Snowball
Since the beginning of the market, the track stocks have suddenly fallen sharply, and the battery link is not spared. In addition to Ning Wang, second-tier manufacturers such as Ewell Lithium Energy fell by more than 10%.
With the sharp decline, the market began to spread the version of the ghost story, due to the sharp increase in the price of middle and upstream materials, most of the 2nd and 3rd line manufacturers in the 4th quarter of the profit situation will be very ugly, losses will be a high probability.
If this is the case, then this will be contrary to the general perception of the market, the original battery manufacturers in 2021 did not make any money at all. This is also not curious, 2, 3-line battery manufacturers still have a chance? Under what circumstances will profits and bursts be shown?
First, raw materials with soaring prices
Considering that the main source of pressure for battery manufacturers is the decline in gross profit margin, that is, the increase in direct material costs.
The direct materials that account for the majority of the battery cost are: positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm, electrolyte.
As you can see, this year's price can only be described as an explosion.
Lithium iron phosphate, a cathode material, has basically doubled at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year, and the trend has not stopped.
The price of mid-range artificial graphite also rose from 37,500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 51,500 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 37%.
Wet diaphragms have also increased by a certain extent due to limited production capacity.
The most exaggerated is that this year's production capacity is extremely short of electrolyte materials, from 112,500 yuan / ton to 590,000 yuan / ton, an amplitude of 4.25 times. It is no wonder that electrolyte company Shi Dashenghua has been able to rise violently this year.
And from the feedback of these main material data, the upward trend has not stopped. In particular, lithium iron phosphate has basically caused the market to worry about its excessive price, which will affect the purchase decisions of downstream customers, especially in the future 100,000-200,000 markets, and the cost performance of tram brand manufacturers will be greatly reduced.
On the other hand, we look at the impact of high prices, that is, the gross profit margin changes of major battery manufacturers.
The following figure clearly shows that the strong stock price of the Ningde era is not unreasonable, the competitiveness of the enterprise is very strong, and the gross profit margin has been maintained in the basically stable range. Several other manufacturers showed a decline in the industry's gross profit in the third quarter.
And the lithium iron phosphate at the end of June is only 52,500 yuan / ton, at the end of September reached 75,000 yuan / ton, in the face of the current price of 130,000 yuan / ton, 2/3 line battery manufacturers in the absence of very strong bargaining power, it seems that the market is worried about the fourth quarter loss is reasonable, Fu Neng Technology is a living example, can only lose money to make a lot of money, accompanied by a sharp decline in stock prices.
Second, the cold winter has arrived
Comparing the minutes, performance analysis and conference call content of each family, it is clearly pieced together that 2- and 3-line battery manufacturers are actually experiencing a cold winter.
Ewell Lithium Energy
"Now lithium iron phosphate batteries are a state of low profit, because it is indeed affected by the upstream price is still relatively large, and in the third and fourth quarters of last year (2021), the possible impact is the largest, and the customers are mainly buses, and the conduction of buses is also more difficult, so it is a situation of small profits for the time being."
That is to say, in the first 3 quarters, in the case of a slight loss of Ewell power batteries, there will be more losses in the 4th quarter, and the power ternary battery will also fall to a certain extent due to the price of lithium carbonate under the net interest rate of 10%. Overall is pessimistic expectations.
Sunwoda
"The company observes that upstream raw materials will have upward pressure before Q1 next year (2022), and the company tends to believe that most of the material prices are already at a high point, and the upside is limited.
In terms of downstream conditions, the market demand is strong, and the production willingness of midstream battery manufacturers is suppressed, so in this market situation, it is feasible to transmit price pressure to the downstream part, and the company is also negotiating with downstream customers, and the future pressure will be alleviated.
The third quarter revenue of power batteries was about 1 billion yuan, and the loss was 250 million-260 million yuan. Power batteries in the third quarter there is gross margin pressure, the gross profit margin in the first half of the year 6%, the third quarter 1.3%, mainly due to the impact of rising raw material prices. ”
In the case of a gross profit of 1.3% in the third quarter, basically the manufacturers are very weak for the upstream and downstream bargaining power, and the transmission of price pressure is doubtful. Some securities companies have expected that the company's power battery business revenue in the fourth quarter will reach 1.4 billion yuan, with a loss of about 280 million yuan; the power battery business will lose 950 million yuan for the whole year.
At the same time, the downstream price increase will have a certain lag, and the pressure of gross profit loss in the first half of 22 years is still there.
Fu Neng Technology, Guoxuan Hi-Tech
Compared with the installed capacity of 2021, the net profit margin of Fu Neng Technology Q3 is -21%, and the installed power battery volume is between Ewell and Sunwoda, and it is expected that the overall loss will be made throughout the year.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a net profit of 67 million yuan in Q3, but the non-profit is -173 million yuan, and this year is still the stage of capacity expansion, and it will be very difficult for the power battery business to be profitable.
Overall, in addition to the stable gross profit and net profit margin control of the Ningde era, 2- and 3-line battery manufacturers have basically no way to achieve profitability in the power business in this wave of price increases in the middle and upstream materials. And, with the trend of price increases not stopping, it is not necessarily better to expect 2022 than in 21 years.
On the other hand, the penetration rate of trams in first-tier cities has basically reached about 40%, and the core factor for the future improvement of tram penetration is the sinking market of 100,000-200,000 yuan, and in the face of such a high price of batteries, will consumers still choose trams?
Therefore, it will be very difficult for the price to pass to the market, and the acceleration of the overall penetration rate may slow down.
Based on the situation that 2 and 3-line power battery manufacturers have a high probability of loss in 2021, the market gives more of a long-term capacity scale valuation, superimposed on the PS expectation discount of Ningde, and we still expect to be profitable in the future.
So, under what circumstances will manufacturers make a profit?
Third, profit factors
First of all, it must be to the leader, we all know that Ningde can continue to develop the scale of forward expansion, can not be separated from the development of its joint venture model, that is, the interests of both sides are bundled together, sitting in the same boat, sharing risks, car companies pay money, Ningde out of battery production capacity.
Under the joint venture model, car companies can lock in the shortage of battery production lines for the first time, and Ningde has enhanced its ability to negotiate prices upstream after expanding its scale, and at the same time locked in the orders of car companies to achieve a win-win situation.
At present, Guoxuan has been taken over by volkswagen, BYD has its own production capacity, Mercedes-BenzDalem has also been purchasing batteries from Fu Neng Technology, and Sunwoda has also jointly built production capacity with Wuling and Geely. Everyone realizes that relying on their own capabilities, especially the cash flow, will be difficult to develop independently, binding car companies, and the common development of orders will be the mainstream.
On the other hand, it is the binding and cost reduction expectations for middle and upstream material manufacturers.
In the material cost composition of power lithium batteries, in general, the proportion of precision structural parts in the material cost is between 10-15%, the largest is the cathode material accounting for about 40%, followed by the electrolyte of about 15%, the negative electrode material accounting for about 10%, and the diaphragm accounting for about 10%.
In the cathode material, the wildest price increase is the price of lithium ore, with the expiration of the past long-term association, this year will most likely usher in a monthly contract, last July Pilbara's auction on the BMX electronic platform, will also guide the price of lithium ore to a certain extent.
The good news is that with the development of lithium extraction technology in salt lakes and the expansion of production by major mining companies, it is expected that the possibility of supply release in the second half of this year is very high, and lithium ore is very similar to oil, which has always been said to be insufficient, but it has always been.
Then there is the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, we have seen the expansion of major midstream manufacturers, as well as the layout of other chemical companies, superimposed policies to stabilize growth, and do not allow the occurrence of power curtailment and production limitation events, it is expected that in the second half of the year there will also be a stable or downward trend in prices.
Anode materials, the current mainstream or graphite, now there is artificial graphite technology has actually become more and more mature, the future of continuous rise in the momentum is actually not strong, relative to the cost, this is very good control.
Diaphragm, due to the technical difficulty and scale of the investment is too large, the current pattern is still the most beneficial to the leading enterprises, which is also the reason why Enjie shares have not fallen. And recently, the battery factories have signed a warranty agreement with the diaphragm leader, and it is rare for the battery factory to pay an advance payment to the diaphragm company to predetermine the production capacity, the reason behind it is worried about the shortage of diaphragms, which continues to confirm the shortage of diaphragms in 2022.
Electrolyte, the first half of 21 years is indeed a tight production capacity, resulting in a particularly crazy price increase. However, now that market expectations have weakened, the possibility of cyclical violent rise is very small, and some manufacturers are already actively expanding production, which is also a relatively unsettling link.
Source: Oriental Wealth
IV. Conclusion
In general, the first movers Ningde and BYD have a very similar situation, the production capacity is not worried about selling at all, and the binding car company, output battery, has a strong upstream and downstream bargaining power.
2, 3-line battery manufacturers, due to a slow step, coupled with a sharp increase in the price of materials, equivalent to a front and back attack, and in the past did not have a joint venture with car companies to bind, resulting in the risk can only be borne by themselves, in 2021 is basically the whole army. But looking back, places with huge profits often attract enterprise layout, which is also the dilemma of manufacturing, and market competition is very fierce. In the second half of 2022, the surge in raw material production capacity is expected to make 2/3-line battery manufacturers achieve positive profitability.
In the short term, in the current state of high valuation, the stock price may not fully reflect the profit pressure in the first half of 22 years, and investors need to be cautious.