With seven championship rings and three MVPs, Tom Brady has been the focus of the league for 22 seasons in his career. His relentless, seemingly never-ending success is now part of the NFL. After breaking the NFL's countless passing records, he now has the potential to set a new record.
However, despite brady's impressive career, critics will always find ways to find Brady's black spots and slots. "Tucker rules", "spy gate", "deflation gate", "falcon screw-up", Brady's achievements did not convince everyone, and even more envy and hatred.
Friends who have watched the game know that it is common for quarterbacks to be knocked to the ground by rushing passes after passing shots, but the referee will judge whether to award a "collision quarterback foul" according to the rules, thereby protecting the rights and interests of quarterbacks.
This week, Brady and Larry Fitzgerald video featured a podcast hosted by Jim Gray, who talked about getting more "charge-on quarterback fouls" than other quarterbacks.
"I don't know if anyone has counted this foul, I don't know if I've gotten the most fouls in the last decade, but I guess I'm getting less than people think."
According to the PFF, the top three quarterbacks who have scored more than three fouls since 2010 are Matt Lane, Magic Huffertz Patrick and Matthew Stafford, while Brady is only in tenth.
The statistics confirm Brady's own guess that he didn't get as much favor as he expected, even if the numerical comprehensive computational efficiency would be hit.
So, on the face of it, Brady is right — the experienced quarterback didn't get more favors from the referee.
However, a bigger question remains unanswered: When Brady gets a hit, does he get more charge-on quarterback fouls than other quarterbacks?
The definition of the rules for charging a quarterback is long and boring, but it comes down to a passer who only hits a quarterback after a quarterback strikes. The specific rules include: the passer can only use one step to contain the dynamics of the impact, can not hit the passer's head or neck, the passer can not hit his arm after shooting, can not hit the part below the knee, can not overturn the passer, and can not use the full weight of the body to press on the passer.
By definition, we can reasonably conclude that it seems that when a quarterback gets out quickly, it's easier for a passer to hold back the momentum of his body and cause a foul. The following diagram shows this:
Home field advantage is also an important factor when considering fouls or penalties in sports matches. As we all know, in NBA games, the home team tends to get more whistles than the away team.
That also seems to apply to clashing quarterbacks, where it seems easier for referees to throw yellow flags at the visiting team amid the noise of home fans to give the home team more room to maneuver.
In addition, it seems that such fouls will also be reduced when there is a clear passing situation in the third and fourth gears. This may be because the rushing passer is more aware that some quarterbacks will wait for them to foul, so the rushing pass will move more cautiously.
Now that we know some of the other objective factors that collide with a quarterback foul, we can incorporate these factors into the model data and extract an estimate to determine the probability of a foul.
In the chart above, the team logo and range bar give the range of probabilities that each team's quarterbacks will get a foul on the charge quarterback. The ability of high-IQ talent from Harvard to magically make fouls is significantly ahead of other quarterbacks in the league, and as for Brady at the bottom of the picture, the probability of him getting a foul against a quarterback is very low.
However, there are still many fans and former players who complain that referees have two rules for other quarterbacks and for Brady, and our model diagram really does not answer such doubts.
However, if the Brady Rules are real, defenders will also deliberately avoid causing such fouls themselves.
Well, these are all baseless reckless speculations, but statistically speaking, Brady is not being treated favorably. Haters always hate。