Some time ago, "The Lancet" published a research report on Pylori, which suddenly made people pay unprecedented attention to Pylori, and some people were scared to no longer dare to eat with people without chopsticks and spoons, A shares also took the opportunity to speculate on a wave, the concept of Helicobacter pylori also turned out, and also produced short-term demon stocks such as Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical and Hanyu Pharmaceutical.
At the same time, because of the lack of new crown detection boxes abroad, Jiuan Medical, which does test boxes in China, has soared more than 10 times in just 2 months, so the concept of new crown test boxes has become a new hot concept in A shares.
Recently, some listed companies have claimed that they have developed new crown drugs, A shares obviously did not miss this opportunity, and listed companies related to new crown drugs have "established" a new concept called "new crown drugs" concept, and in a short period of time, short-term demon stocks such as essence pharmaceuticals and Yaben Chemical have emerged.
There is a saying called "the concept of A shares is more than listed companies", which is obviously a bit exaggerated, at present, there are more than 4500 A-share listed companies, and there are about 400 sectors in various industries, concepts, and styles, so the concept is certainly not as many as listed companies, but it also shows that the concept of A-share speculation is really endless.
Of course, in the process of the market's crazy hype of Pylori and new crown detection and new crown drugs, there are also some listed companies that set multiple concepts in one, such as Haichen Pharmaceutical (300584.sz), which is a generic drug, which is both pylori and the concept of new crown special drugs, and the stock price of the two popular concepts has not risen less, the past two months have risen nearly 2 times, but after the release of the performance against the sky, the stock price has shown 20% flash crash stop!
The performance doubled 4 times, but the stock price collapsed
The two concepts of Pylori and new crown drugs were started at the end of October last year, when the stock price of Jiuan Medical was only 5.8 yuan, Jingjing Pharmaceutical was only 5.15 yuan, Hanyu Pharmaceutical was only 4.65 yuan, and now Jiuan Medical's stock price is up to 88.88 yuan, Jingjing Pharmaceutical is up to 22.45 yuan, and Hanyu Pharmaceutical is up to 22.10 yuan, with an increase of 14.32 times, 3.35 times and 3.75 times, respectively.
Haichen Pharmaceutical, which has two popular concepts of pylori and new crown drugs, had a stock price of 14.93 yuan at the end of October last year, and the highest is 40.63 yuan now, with a maximum increase of 172%, nearly 2 times. But after the stock price hit a high of 40.63 yuan, the "meat grinder" mode has been opened in recent days.
Monday's strong 20% limit highest close at 40.63 yuan, Tuesday directly low open more than 7% and then fell more than 17%, Wednesday slightly lower open less than 2% after the up and down shock a bit of stop falling meaning, Thursday high open more than 11% after the strong 20% stop, today's low open more than 5% after the rapid flash crash to 20% down stop board.
this...... This kind of play, who plays who loses ah!
(Screenshot of haichen pharmaceutical stock price trend)
However, today's sudden flash crash, perhaps you can find a grand reason, because the company predicted a big increase in performance in 2021, so the stock price fell... But it doesn't seem quite right either.
After hours on January 19, that is, after Wednesday' hours, Haichen Pharmaceutical released the company's 2021 performance forecast, which is expected to be a net profit attributable to the mother of 288 million to 298 million, an increase of 422.09% to 441.30% year-on-year, and it is expected to deduct non-net profit of 26.5213 million to 37.1298 million, down 30%-50% year-on-year.
(Screenshot of Haichen Pharmaceutical's performance forecast)
How to understand this performance forecast, look at the company's stock price, it seems that yesterday the explanation is the net profit attributable to the mother, because the net profit attributable to the mother has risen more than 4 times, so the company's stock price has risen by 20%, and today it seems to be explained that the deduction of non-net profit, because the deduction of non-net profit fell by 30%-50%, so the stock price fell by 20%.
Therefore, this situation is not clear, in the end these days, the stock price of Haichen Pharmaceutical is reflecting the performance or harvesting leeks?
However, as far as the matter is concerned, the performance of Haichen Pharmaceutical is really not the same, because the deduction of non-main business is a sharp decline, and the net profit attributable to the mother has risen sharply mainly because of the non-recurring income generated by the change in the fair value of the financial assets held by the company in the reporting period, which is more than 260 million!
A model of heavy sales and light research and development
The performance suddenly soared by more than 4 times, but most of them were supported by the fair value change income of financial assets that had not yet arrived, and then looked at the main business is not as good as a year.
Haichen Pharmaceutical is a company mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of chemical preparations, APIs and intermediates, covering diuretics, cardiovascular, anti-infection, digestive system, immunomodulation, hypoglycemic, orthopedic and other therapeutic fields, the main products are torasemide for injection, tigecycline for injection, brandilolol hydrochloride for injection, cefvacilone sodium for injection, ceftiam for injection, rivaroxaban tablets, entecavir tablets, etc.
Simply put, Haichen Pharmaceutical is a company that does generic drugs. However, in recent years, with the in-depth promotion of medical insurance control fees and drug collection, the scope of medical insurance reimbursement for major products has been limited, and the profit margin of national procurement with volume procurement and provincial linkage bidding and procurement has declined, resulting in a decline in the company's product sales and sales revenue.
In 2020, Haichen Pharmaceutical's revenue was 706 million, down 23.61% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the mother was 55.2301 million, down 43.21% year-on-year, and the non-net profit was 53.0425 million, down 44.29% year-on-year; although the revenue data in 2021 is not yet known, the deduction of non-net profit has fallen by 30%-50% on the basis of 2020, which is more than 70% lower than the 95.2129 million in 2019!
(Source: Flush website)
Medical insurance control costs, drug collection and procurement has indeed had a great impact on the generic drug industry, but the foundation of generic drug companies like Haichen Pharmaceutical is not very solid, high sales expenditure, low research and development expenditure, originally doing is a small profit and high sales business, and then the profit margin is lower.
Of course, the small profit and high sales "profit" mentioned here refers to net profit rather than gross profit.
Looking at the gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of Haichen Pharmaceutical in recent years has been above 75%, which is higher than that of liquor. However, looking at the net interest rate, it is basically all the way down, in 2017 there was a net interest rate of 14.42%, and only 7.72% in 2020, according to the company's performance estimates, the net interest rate in 2021 is estimated to be below 5%!
Why is that? Because the sales expense ratio of Haichen Pharmaceutical is too high, it is far higher than the average level of the pharmaceutical industry. In general, the average sales rate of the domestic pharmaceutical industry is about 30%-50%, but in the past three years, the sales expense rate of Haichen Pharmaceutical is much higher than 50%, which is 61.52%, 57.46% and 58.81% respectively, which is significantly higher than the industry average.
However, in terms of R&D expenditure level, Haichen Pharmaceutical is far below the industry average. As we all know, the R& D expenditure of domestic pharmaceutical companies is lower than that of foreign countries, especially generic drug companies, which are not much research and development, but there is an average expenditure ratio of nearly 10%. However, the proportion of R&D expenditure of Haichen Pharmaceutical in the past three years was 6.48%, 7.24% and 4.1% respectively, which was significantly lower than the industry average.
For pharmaceutical companies, heavy sales and light research and development are common phenomena in China, but too much dependence on sales may lead to low core competitiveness of the company, resulting in a continuous decline in performance!
The major shareholder is highly pledged, and the executive has insider trading
Haichen Pharmaceutical's main business profit has been declining for 3 consecutive years, in fact, before the company's stock price rose, Haichen Pharmaceutical's stock price has fallen for more than 3 consecutive years, the largest decline of more than 70%, even if the recent surge of nearly 2 times from the historical high is still a long way to go.
Performance declined, stock prices fell, the company's major shareholders are not in a hurry to reduce their holdings, but they have pledged their shares in the company.
As of the end of the third quarter of last year, among the top ten shareholders of the company, the pledge ratio of the actual controller Cao Yuping reached 39.75%, the pledge ratio of the fourth largest shareholder Liu Xiaoquan was 79.92%, and the pledge ratio of the sixth largest shareholder was 68.90%.
(Screenshot of the top 10 shareholders of Haichen Pharmaceutical)
It is worth noting that the second largest shareholder, Jiang Xiaoqun, is married to the actual controller Cao Yuping, the eighth largest shareholder, Cao Wei, is the sister of the actual controller Cao Yuping, and the members of the Cao family hold a total of 52.43% of the company's shares. In addition, it can be seen that the top ten shareholders of the company are basically natural persons, the third largest shareholder, Liu Xiaoquan, is the director of the company, and the fourth largest shareholder, Yao Xiaomin, is the director and deputy general manager of the company.
Speaking of directors, on August 26, 2020, the Hunan Securities Regulatory Bureau issued an administrative penalty decision, in 2017, when the company acquired 90% of the equity of the Italian oncology drug research and development institution NMS Group, during the sensitive period of insider information, the spouse of the chairman of the company's supervisory board had made more than 49,000 profits from trading the company's shares.
(Screenshot of Administrative Penalty Decision)
As a result, Xu Jianfeng's insider exchange was confiscated for 49238 yuan and fined 147714 yuan!
From the perspective of stock prices, the insider trading of the chairman of the supervisory board was the wave of the company's stock price rising from about 20 yuan to 56 yuan, but it was after that wave of the market that the company's stock price fell all the way.
In general, it can be roughly concluded that Haichen Pharmaceutical is not a good company, set the concept of rubbing, performance decline, heavy marketing light research and development, insider trading, high pledge and other "scumbag" characteristics in one, although the company's market value is less than 4 billion, but the price-earnings ratio has exceeded 100 times, for generic drug companies This valuation is obviously a bit high!