Per reporter: Zhang Rui Per editor: Chen Xing
On January 20, the State Council New Office held a press conference on the operation of the agricultural and rural economy in 2021.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that Zeng Yande, chief agronomist and director of the Department of Development Planning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced that in 2021, the mainland's grain and agricultural production will achieve a bumper harvest again, and the foundation for ensuring national food security will be consolidated and improved. Grain production reached a record high. Grain production was 1,365.7 billion catties, an increase of 26.7 billion catties on a high base.
At the same time, pig production has fully recovered. By the end of 2021, the national breeding sow stock will be 43.29 million, and the production capacity will return to a reasonable level. The annual pork output was 52.96 million tons, an increase of 28.8% over the previous year, basically reaching the level of historical normal years.
The total supply of meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables is sufficient
The Spring Festival is coming, the Winter Olympic Games and the Winter Paralympic Games are about to be held, how about the stable production and supply of vegetables and other "vegetable basket" products?
In this regard, Tang Ke, director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the "vegetable basket" products are closely related to the lives of the people and are important commodities for people's livelihood. "Judging from all aspects of the situation, during this year's Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games and the Winter Paralympic Games, the total supply of meat, eggs, milk, fruits, vegetables and fish is sufficient, which can fully meet the consumption needs of urban and rural residents."
Tang Ke introduced that in 2021, the mainland pig production recovery target task was completed half a year ahead of schedule, pork production increased significantly, basically returned to the level of historical normal years, beef and mutton, poultry meat, milk production hit a record high, fishery production is stable, aquatic products production is sufficient, livestock and poultry aquatic products supply are fully guaranteed.
At the same time, citrus and other fruits are listed in large quantities, apples, pears and other fruits are abundant, the fruit market is sufficient, there are many varieties, and the price is relatively stable.
In addition, the current national vegetable field area of about 80 million mu, an increase of more than 2 million mu year-on-year, is expected to supply a total of 170 million tons of vegetables in the next 3 months, an increase of 3.5 million tons year-on-year, plus winter storage vegetables, can be used for about 3 kg of vegetables per person per day. "However, due to the rise in gasoline and diesel prices and seasonal factors, it is expected that vegetable prices will be relatively firm." Tang Ke said.
He said that in the later period, some areas may experience staged adverse weather, and the pressure on agricultural products to maintain supply and stabilize prices is greater than in previous years. In the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will continue to work with relevant departments and localities to actively adopt targeted measures and focus on four aspects of work.
Specifically, the first is stable production. The zoning classification should do a good job in the production of winter and spring vegetables in key areas such as the "Southern Vegetables and Northern Transportation" base, the large and medium-sized cities in the north, and the large and medium-sized cities, continue to do a good job in livestock and poultry aquaculture, and continuously improve the market supply capacity of "vegetable basket" products.
The second is unimpeded circulation. Work with relevant departments to strictly implement the "green channel" policy for the transportation of fresh and live agricultural products, actively coordinate the construction of "point-to-point" docking relationships between production areas and sales areas, and ensure that "vegetable basket" products can be produced, transported and supplied.
The third is to do a good job in emergency response. Pay close attention to major festivals, major activities, and special periods such as extreme weather such as rain, snow, and ice, strengthen production scheduling and market dynamic monitoring and early warning, and guide and urge all localities, especially large and medium-sized cities, to formulate emergency supply plans.
The fourth is to ensure safety. Strengthen quality and safety supervision, increase the intensity of sampling inspections, and effectively ensure the "safety on the tip of the tongue" of the people. In accordance with the unified deployment of the Winter Olympic Organizing Committee, strengthen the quality and safety control of the base of direct supply of agricultural products for the Winter Olympics, cooperate with relevant departments to do a good job in the prevention and control of foodborne stimulants, and complete various tasks with quality and quantity.
The future supply of pigs continues to be relatively loose
Pork prices have been a source of concern. Since last year, the price of pork has fallen, and many people are worried about whether there will be a situation of "pigs hurting farmers".
In this regard, Tang Ke said that the high price of live pigs in 2021 gradually fell, from 35.8 yuan per kilogram in January to 17.59 yuan in December, and the pig price in December was still higher than the average production cost of 15.5 yuan per kilogram of about 2 yuan.
From the perspective of pig breeding income, in addition to the loss from June to October, the remaining 7 months are more profitable, according to the weighted average calculation of the amount of discharge, each pig in the whole year still has a profit of 564 yuan, higher than the profit level of about 200 yuan in normal years. "For the whole industry, pig breeding in 2021 is still a bumper harvest year." Tang Ke said.
Xia Chenfeng, an analyst in the pig industry of rural credit interconnection, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that 2021 is in the downward stage of the pig cycle, pig prices continue to decline, and there are 5 months of losses during the year, but overall, the industry is at a profitable level.
"In the first half of the year, although pig prices continued to decline, the domestic pig supply and the stock of fertile sows continued to increase." She said that in June 2021, the breeding sow inventory reached a high point, and the data showed that it reached 45.64 million heads, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year and an increase of 2.1% over the end of 2017, which means that the domestic pig supply in the coming year is very sufficient.
The reporter noted that data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in January 2022, pork prices continued to decline, and began to pick up in mid-January.
Lean white strip pork ex-factory price total index running chart
Image source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
For the recent trend of pig prices, Xia Chenfeng analyzed to reporters, this is because the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data show that in November and December 2021, the number of large pigs in the national scale pig farm in May increased by 25.9% and 27.5% year-on-year, respectively, according to the fattening time of about 2 months, corresponding to the large amount of pigs listed before and after the Spring Festival.
"And due to the impact of the epidemic, the flow of people in various places is limited, which also has a certain negative impact on pork consumption demand, and the consumption stock situation in various places before the Spring Festival is not as good as in previous years, so pork prices fell into a weak state in January." Xia Chenfeng said.
Xia Chenfeng said that as of the end of the third quarter of 2021, the number of pigs in the mainland exceeded 430 million heads, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year, and the number of fertile sows at the end of November 2021 was 42.96 million, exceeding the normal holding of 4.8%. This ensures that the supply will continue to be relatively loose in the future, and the price of live pigs and pork has not yet come out of the downward cycle.
"During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games and the Winter Paralympic Games, if the consumer demand for pork can be boosted, then pork prices may still rise for a short time, but in the case of sufficient pork supply, the time and amplitude of the rise are limited, and it is difficult to change the overall weakness." She said.
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