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Although everyone is saying that the property market has declined, and there has been a significant decline in the market, the final data proves that the property market in 2021 will still maintain an upward trend. According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the transaction area of commercial housing in the country will reach 179433 million square meters in 2021, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year; the sales of commercial housing will reach 18,193 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%! Whether in terms of sales area or sales, the property market rose last year, and the national average house price also rose by 2.8% year-on-year. This makes many people feel incomprehensible, why are developers and speculators in the price reduction promotion, and finally the property market has risen? This also makes everyone worried about the property market in 2022, so what about the mainland property market club in 2022? The author believes that there are three major trends that are likely to occur:
The first trend is that property sales have fallen. Although the property sales data in 2021 has risen, the author believes that this is likely to be the peak moment of the property market, and then the property sales data will flourish and decline! Because the statistics bureau data show that in 2021, the new population of the mainland will only be 10.62 million, and the birth rate will further decrease. More importantly, last year's net increase in the country's population was only 480,000 people, according to the population trend in recent years, which means that from this year onwards, the mainland may have negative population growth. Once the population has a negative growth, then the demand for housing in the entire real estate market will be reduced, in this case, whether it is developers or speculators who want to sell the house will become more difficult. So from this point of view, the property sales in 2022 are likely to decrease, and the prediction of the Academy of Social Sciences is that it will fall by between 3% and 5%.
The second trend is the divergence of house prices. Although there is a clear downward trend in the population, the trend of urbanization will not change, and the population will still gather in large cities in the future. Some experts even said that in the next 19 large cities, 74% of the country's population will be gathered! In the current context of the increasing influence of this population on the trend of house prices, this represents the future trend of house prices to a certain extent. So in this case, those cities with population inflows, house prices will continue to rise, and those cities where people flow out, house prices will fall. In fact, this trend has already appeared in 2021, for example, last year, the house price in the northeast region fell very significantly, especially the price of new houses in Harbin, which fell for 5 consecutive months in the second half of the year.
The third trend is the increasing number of incentive policies to buy houses. Since the second half of last year, there have been more and more encouraging housing purchase policies in the market, and in January this year, 7 cities across the country have introduced encouraging housing purchase policies! Therefore, in the author's opinion, there are more and more encouraging housing purchase policies in the market in 2022. This is also easy to understand, because under the expectation of population decline, most buyers maintain a wait-and-see attitude, so in order to attract buyers to buy houses, some cities will definitely introduce some encouraging policies, otherwise the local economic development will be affected. After all, for many cities, real estate is already a pillar industry supporting economic development, and real estate must not be allowed to fall sharply.
Of course, in addition to the above trends, there will definitely be other changes in the property market in 2022, such as the living environment of developers will deteriorate. But no matter what changes in the property market, buyers must make a decision on whether to buy a house according to their economic strength and demand.