21st Century Business Herald reporter Han Xun reported from Shanghai
Polyfluorinated poly(002407. SZ) is a stock that makes investors "love and hate", and its performance has soared last year, but the stock price has hit a new 6-month low.
On the evening of January 19, polyfluoride (002407. SZ) released the 2021 performance forecast, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.23 billion yuan - 1.33 billion yuan, an increase of 2429.70% - 2635.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the mother of 2020 polyfluoride was only 0.49 billion yuan.
The main reason for such a large increase in performance is that "the market demand for new material products based on lithium hexafluorophosphate is strong, the new production capacity of the company's related products is gradually released, the capacity utilization rate reaches a high level, and the profitability is greatly improved." ”
However, PFE shares fell as low as $38.60 on Jan. 19, a new low since July 9, 2021.
The price of the product has risen nearly 8 times
According to the data, "lithium hexafluorophosphate" is one of the four key materials (positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm, electrolyte) of lithium batteries, and is the main raw material of lithium battery electrolyte. Electrolytes containing lithium hexafluorophosphate are the best performing of the electrolyte types required for lithium batteries and are therefore the first choice of most downstream lithium battery manufacturers.
Since July 2020, sales of new energy vehicles have soared, resulting in a significant increase in demand for lithium batteries, which has reversed the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
The data shows that in early July 2020, the average market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 69,500 yuan / ton. By the beginning of January 2021, the average market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 112,500 yuan / ton, and by December 31, the average market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 565,000 yuan / ton.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the latest data on January 19, 2022 shows that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to 590,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.42% from 565,000 / ton at the end of December 2021, and an increase of 748.25% from 69,500 yuan / ton in early July 2020, which can be called the "king of materials".
Polyfluoride began to develop lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2006, and when it was listed in 2010, it had completed the completion and operation of the pilot production line, and completed the construction of a 200-ton lithium hexafluorophosphate project in 2011. By 2014, POLYFLU has become a leading enterprise in China of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
It is benefiting from the market quotation of lithium hexafluorophosphate that has soared, and polyfluoride has seen explosive growth in last year's performance.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit attributable to polyfluoride was 737 million yuan. The disclosed 2021 performance forecast shows that the net profit attributable to the parent of polyfluoride is 1.23 billion yuan - 1.33 billion yuan, which means that the company's single-quarter net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter of last year was about 600 million yuan.
The stock price has hit a new low in the past 6 months
Lithium hexafluorophosphate has a solid and liquid state, and the lithium hexafluorophosphate products produced by polyfluoride are crystalline solids.
In a survey by the reception agency on December 7, 2021, POLYFLUORIDE said, "Compared with liquid products, solid lithium hexafluorophosphate is more pure and of more stable quality, and it is well sealed when it is packed with inert gas to facilitate safe transportation over long distances." Based on the above characteristics, the application scenarios of solid lithium hexafluorophosphate are more extensive, which can meet the needs of all mainstream electrolyte companies and also meet the customized needs of most lithium battery customers for electrolyte materials. ”
According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate at the end of 2021 is about 20,000 tons / year, and the annual shipment is expected to be about 13,000-14,000 tons.
According to the expansion plan of polyfluoride, it is planned to increase the production capacity by 40,000 tons by the end of 2022, and the annual production and sales volume is planned to reach 30,000-35,000 tons. After 2023, new production capacity will be released according to market demand.
Everbright Securities expects that the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021-2023 will be 1.5, 45 and 60,000 tons/year, and the actual sales volume will be 12, 30,000 and 40,000 tons, respectively.
Although the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising since last year, the stock price of polyfluoride began to fall in late October last year.
At the beginning of January 2021, polyfluoride started from 20.03 yuan and rose all the way to 66.20 yuan on October 27, and the stock price rose by 230.50%. But since October 27, 2021, PFO's stock price has fallen all the way.
On January 19, 2022, the polyfluoride has fallen to 38.95 yuan, the intraday low has fallen to 38.60 yuan, compared with 66.20 yuan has fallen by 41.69%, almost "waist cut".
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the last time the polyfluoride stock price appeared at a price of 38.60 yuan was on July 9, 2021, that is to say, this price has hit a new low for more than 6 months.
Everbright Securities believes that there are three catalysts for the rise in polyfluoride's stock price, "First, the company plans to officially land the production capacity of new energy materials and release the performance; second, the production capacity of electronic chemicals is further planned; third, the new energy and semiconductor industries are favorable policies." ”
At present, these three "catalysts" do not have the conditions, so the decline in the stock price of polyfluoride is also reasonable.
Some market views believe that from the demand side, according to industry statistics, the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021 is 72,600 tons, and it is expected that the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will reach 365,600 tons by 2025. From the supply side, the global effective production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021 is about 68,600 tons, and the contradiction between supply and demand may continue for a long time.
While agreeing with the market view, Everbright Securities also believes that the mismatch between supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate will continue in the short term, but there is a long-term problem of overproduction. In the short term, the performance of the polyfluoride lithium hexafluorophosphate plate has increased significantly; in the long run, the degree of mismatch between supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate has improved, the price has returned to rationality, the differentiation of manufacturers' profits will focus more on the cost side, and polyfluoride is expected to obtain excess benefits with strong technical strength and the advantages of the integrated layout of fluorine chemical industry.
Therefore, Everbright Securities gave POLYFLU MORE about 33 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 74.25 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
According to the closing price of 38.95 yuan on January 19, there is still 90% room for growth from the target price of Everbright Securities, but whether this target price can be fulfilled.
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