Overseas lithium mine projects have encountered "changes". On January 18, Rio Tinto and Allkem both announced that their lithium mine projects were postponed. Industry insiders said that the tight supply of lithium in 2022 or throughout the year, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise by about 80% in the first half of the year.
Supply is limited
Rio Tinto said it expects sales of the company's Jadar lithium-borate project in Serbia to be delayed from 2026 to 2027 due to the delay in the approval of the development license. Allkem said that due to the impact of the epidemic and the delay in project approval, the first production time of the first phase of the SaldeVida project is expected to be postponed to the second half of 2023.
"The main increase in lithium salt production in 2022 is likely to come from lithium extraction in salt lakes. Even in the case of optimism, lithium supply and demand will remain tightly balanced in 2022. The relevant person in charge of Tibet Everest said in an interview with the China Securities News reporter.
Industry insiders believe that the gap in the supply of lithium resources in 2022 is large, and the gap may be narrowed in 2023. Everbright Securities pointed out that the output of new lithium resources in 2022 is small, and the gap between supply and demand of global lithium resources is about 34,000 tons of LCE. In 2023, a large number of new ore and salt lake projects will be put into operation worldwide, and the gap between supply and demand will be narrowed.
Perturbations are constantly emerging. Guotai Junan said that in the short and medium term, the Chilean election will not have an impact on the supply of lithium to the planned capacity. However, in the long run, untapped resource projects may be postponed, which will limit the release of global lithium resource supply in the long term.
Demand is strong
According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on January 19, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 334,000 yuan / ton, and the average price of lithium hydroxide was 288,500 yuan / ton.
"In fact, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the market is 360,000 yuan - 375,000 yuan / ton." Wang Hong, sales director of Nantong Yuehua New Material Technology Co., Ltd., told China Securities News reporter.
Lithium salt prices rose sharply, while demand from the new energy sector remained strong. According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, the cumulative sales of power batteries in mainland China reached 186.0GWh, an increase of 182.3% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of ternary batteries were 79.6GWh, an increase of 128.9% year-on-year; the sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries were 106.0GWh, an increase of 245.0% year-on-year.
According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. The China Automobile Association expects that in 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 5 million units, an increase of 42% year-on-year.
The person in charge of the above-mentioned Tibet Everest told the China Securities News reporter that it is expected that the demand for lithium batteries will grow rapidly from 2021 to 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34.4%, while the average annual compound growth rate of lithium resource supply from 2020 to 2023 will be 29.6%, and the next three years will be in a state of insufficient lithium supply.
Notably, Allkem expects lithium carbonate prices to rise by about 80% in the first half of 2022.
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