In 2021, the global climate has been shaken for another year, and there are too many complex climate patterns. Of course, from the perspective of global warming, the occurrence of extreme climate phenomena is not unexpected, scientists have already explained.
Therefore, this also shows the conclusion that global warming continues to develop, and extreme climate phenomena are only likely to increase, not decrease. In 2021, there are also many complex climate phenomena on the mainland, and the average temperature has also reached a new high.
However, there is also a lot of rainfall, of which the rain in the north is actually more, reaching the "second strongest in history", it can be imagined that the rain in the north is a lot more. Overall, looking at the data, that is, the national average precipitation is 671.3 mm, 6.8% more than usual, and the precipitation in the northern region is 697.9 mm, which is 40.6% more than the usual year, which is the second most historical.
The two most typical waves of rainfall are Beijing rain and Henan rain. But it's all northern, so let's see it together. Of course, here we can first explain that the typical rain change in the north is related to subtropical high pressure, typhoon and other factors, which can be regarded as an "atmospheric abnormal reaction". Therefore, it leads to the continuous occurrence of extreme rainwater, and the overall rain is stronger.
Among them, from July 11 to 13, 2021, heavy rain and heavy rain occurred in a wide range of areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, southeastern Shanxi, and northern Henan, and the daily rainfall of seven national meteorological observation stations in Henan and Hebei exceeded the July extreme. Later, from July 17 to 22, there were extreme heavy rainfall in many of the above areas, and Chinese meteorological researchers used a classic phrase to explain that the rainfall in some areas could not be more suitable than "the rare extreme heavy rainstorm in history". Therefore, it is enough to show that there is indeed a lot of rain in the north.
Of course, after seeing the intensity of this rainfall, many people think of the problem of China's rainfall moving north in the context of global warming.
Indeed, in 2015, Chinese scientists published an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences saying that in the context of global warming, it would cause the East Asian summer wind and rain belt to move north, thus bringing abundant precipitation to northern China and reversing the local drought situation since the 1970s. So, from this report, it proves once again that the northward shift of rainfall is the trend.
But could that really be the case? The trend is not necessarily accurate, even if the northern rainfall in 2021 reached the second strongest in history, but in history, it may not be the most.
According to the study, the "Holocene climate suitable period" of about 9,000 to 5,000 years ago, when the global temperature was warmer than today, the average annual temperature in the north of the mainland was 2-3 °C higher than now, and the average annual precipitation was 100-200 mm higher than now. Therefore, judging from global warming, the rainfall shifting north and the increase in rainfall may only be a trend, but it is not an absolute statement.
Atmospheric changes are complex, and it is possible that a certain phenomenon may lead to the transformation of rainwater belts. So, in a short period of time, we see that the rainfall in the north has indeed increased, but it is not certain that the future will be the same pattern, for example, global warming has changed, is it changed?
At least humanity is already making countermeasures to change global warming, so it is indeed possible to change further. And in the short term, the new round of rainwater belt on the mainland will change again, why?
Volcanoes in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga have undergone "violent eruptions" that could bring about a global climate response, which could be the largest in 30 years.
Experts from the China Meteorological Administration also explained the topic of "volcanic eruptions will change the global climate". According to experts, volcanic eruptions generally have a lasting impact on the global and East Asian climates for the next 1 to 2 years, with a cooling effect of about 0.3 °C.
The point is that for the mainland, volcanic eruptions can weaken the intensity of east Asian summer winds the following year, which in turn leads to the southward summer rain band of the continent, and experts recommend that the continued effects of volcanic eruptions be taken into account in flood precipitation forecasters.
Of course, there are two main problems here, will it lead to global cooling? The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 also reduced the global surface temperature by about 0.5 degrees the following year, but this eruption ejected 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, and the sulfur dioxide entering the stratosphere reduced the sunlight on the earth by 10%, so there was a cooling pattern. This time the Tonga volcano erupted.
According to the Sentinel 5 satellite probe, the Tonga volcano eruption released about 400,000 tons of sulfur dioxide. Far less than the intensity of volcanic eruptions in the Philippines, it is unknown whether it will cause the Earth to cool down. Even if chinese experts say it, it is only a possibility.
In a year or two, we can determine whether the Tonga volcano has caused the cooling, but regional cooling is still possible. That's the first question.
The second question is, what does it mean that the mainland summer rain band is far south? This problem may be more serious, which means that the main area of rainfall may appear in a "southerly" position (southerly), so in 2022 (this year) the rainfall in the south will also increase and soar? In fact, this is not necessarily true.
How much rainfall is not only a problem of rain belts, there are many factors, even if there are rain belts that experts say "southerly", if there are several rain belts, it is not necessarily more rainfall in the entire south. Moreover, the summer rain belt is not developed 24 hours a day. Therefore, whether the rainfall in the south will increase or not, and it is also unknown whether the rain will increase sharply.
Judging this conclusion comprehensively, the summer rain belt may be southerly, and there is indeed a possibility of increasing the rainfall in the south, but there is also room for change. At best, let's look at the future trend of the summer rain belt, and we don't have to look at anything else.
In the context of global warming, there are so many extreme climate phenomena, it is not surprising that any abnormal climate change fluctuations are generally the case.