"Summer is getting hotter and hotter, winter is rarely snowing" is the intuitive feeling of many people, and climate change seems to have been pressed "fast forward button" in recent years.
Recently, Spanish climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera released the latest research progress pointing out that more than 400 weather stations around the world broke the record for the highest temperature in history in 2021. What are the reasons for the record-breaking temperatures in many parts of the world, and what are the impacts? In this regard, China Science News interviewed Liu Yanju, chief expert of the monitoring direction of the Climate Change Monitoring and Estimation Office of the National Climate Center.
Extreme weather and climate events are frequent
Herrera said the heat record in 2021 is constantly being refreshed. Canada, the United States, Turkey, Italy and other 10 countries or regions broke or equaled the local highest temperature record, 107 countries or regions broke the monthly high temperature record. According to the China Meteorological Administration, in 2021, the average annual temperature on the mainland is 1.0 °C higher than usual, the highest since 1951.
"In 2021, 62 countries on the mainland will have daily maximum temperatures exceeding historical extremes." Liu Yanju revealed. In her view, if greenhouse gas emission reduction measures are not taken in the future, record-breaking extreme heat will occur more frequently, and the fever rate and mortality rate related to human health caused by extreme heat will increase, which may affect the survival and development of human beings.
"Since the atmosphere can accommodate more water vapor after a warming climate, the risk of extreme precipitation is also greatly increased when precipitation conditions are favorable." Liu Yanju said.
In 2021, the "7.20" exceptionally heavy rainstorm in Henan, mainland China, is a concrete manifestation of the frequent occurrence of extreme heavy precipitation events. There are also many typical cases around the world, such as the extreme heavy precipitation in the central and western Parts of Europe in early to mid-July 2021, and the maximum daily rainfall of 88.4 mm at the Bonn-Cologne weather station in Germany, breaking the station's historical record.
"As temperatures continue to rise, the trend warming of the climate has had an important impact on the entire natural and social systems." Liu Yanju said that in addition to the direct meteorological disasters caused by the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events, it also has a direct or indirect impact on the three major industries, energy resources, natural ecosystems, human health and major projects. These effects are both positive and negative, but are predominantly negative.
Global climate change will intensify
The First Working Group report of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2021: Natural Science Foundations, points out that human activities are the main cause of global warming since industrialization, and that the continued emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the future will lead to further warming, which in turn will lead to a rapid increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events around the world.
"Climate warming will exacerbate the instability of the climate system, change the large-scale atmospheric circulation situation through changes in sea-air interaction and land-air interaction, and then affect the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in different regions." Liu Yanju said.
The future is not optimistic. The IPCC report argues that global surface temperatures will continue to rise at least until the mid-21st century, taking into account all greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In the coming decades, global climate change will intensify, the intensity and frequency of extreme hot weather will increase in most regions, and the impact of human activities may increase the probability of complex extreme weather events.
Addressing the challenges posed by the intensification of climate change requires the joint efforts of all humankind. "Adaptation to climate change should aim at reducing vulnerability and improving development conditions, enhancing capacities to better adapt to climate change, and taking necessary adaptation actions tailored to local conditions to reduce the losses and impacts of climate change on life, property and health." Liu Yanju said.
For example, at higher temperature rise levels, health-related extreme heat thresholds are broken more frequently, meaning that human health and basic life will be increasingly challenged. This requires relevant departments to do a good job of forecasting and early warning, reminding the public to reduce exposure and enhance self-protection measures.
"It's more important to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions." As a responsible major country, China will increase its nationally determined contribution, adopt more effective policies and measures to reduce emissions, strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Liu Yanju said. (Reporter Zhang Qingdan)
Source: China Science Daily