Image source @ Visual China
Wen 丨 Xiaoqian
For domestic mobile phone brands, 2021 is not a very calm year.
This year, the smartphone market pattern has changed again, Huawei's market share has been further compressed, "Xiaomi OV" has launched high-end machines to try to divide the market spit out by Huawei, the glory after independence is pressing step by step, some "former kings" such as Coolpad also took advantage of the situation to announce their return, and a storm seems to be brewing.
Throughout 2021, the overall shipment volume of global smart phones is 1.32 billion units, domestic mobile phone brands are still competitive, according to the latest report released by data research institute Canalys, the top five brands in global sales in 2021 are Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and domestic brands occupy half of the country.
In the Chinese market, OPPO and vivo ranked first and second with a market share of 21.7% and 19.3% respectively, followed by Apple, Xiaomi, and Glory.
Under the tense market situation, in 2022, the smart phone industry will show a different development context from 2021, and the increase in scientific research investment, diversified layout, and price increase are its development keywords.
Increase investment in scientific research, imaging is still the main direction of self-developed chips
Looking back at 2021, scientific research strength is the first label that mobile phone manufacturers scramble to put on themselves.
On March 30, at the two-day-long Xiaomi Spring Conference, the surging C1 chip was passionately unveiled. This is Xiaomi's first professional imaging chip, although the performance of this chip is relatively average in the eyes of professionals or enthusiasts, but it can be regarded as the beginning of a stage.
Since Xiaomi, immediately after, Vivo launched its self-developed chip V1, oppo launched its self-developed chip Mariana MariSilicon X, both of which are image-level chips.
The opportunity to promote domestic mobile phone manufacturers to embark on the road of chip self-development may be to feel the pressure from the external market, and at the same time, the rising cost caused by the shortage of chips during the epidemic has also brought contradictions between pricing and market sales for mobile phone manufacturers.
But why do these manufacturers invariably launch image-level ISP chips?
First of all, from the perspective of consumers, image effects are one of the most concerned mobile phone features.
ZDC's research data on the characteristics of consumer mobile phones in 2021 shows that the public's attention to the image functions of mobile phones accounted for 29.51%, ranking first. In the past, the improvement of image performance mainly relied on hardware stacking, that is, increasing the number of cameras. However, we can find that since last year, the number of mobile phone cameras of various brands has not changed much, according to the data compiled by X Technology Lab, the average number of rear cameras of the best-selling models and flagship models in 2021 is 2.94 and 3.36 respectively, which is almost no difference compared with the previous year.
Image source: Zhongguancun Online
Mobile phone manufacturers realized that hardware stacking can no longer bring too much improvement to the image function, so image processing chips and camera algorithms have become a new research and development direction.
Secondly, compared with SOC chips, the research and development difficulty of ISP chips is lower and the time is shorter, which can not only highlight the scientific research determination of enterprises, but also put into the market in a short period of time in exchange for returns.
Chips are quite important to smartphones, and their status is equivalent to the brain and heart of mobile phones. High-performance chips can bring higher fluency to mobile phones, domestic mobile phone brands want to have higher competitiveness in the market, mastering the core technology of chip research and development is the best choice.
However, self-developed chips are a long-term process, especially the most important SOC system chips used in smart phones, not only the research and development process is long, but also need a lot of financial support, it can be said that chip research and development is a "costly and laborious" long-term project.
At present, there are mature SOC chip manufacturing companies in the market, such as MediaTek, Qualcomm, TSMC, etc., which have accumulated rich R& D experience, which is not easy to beat by "halfway out" mobile phone manufacturers. Therefore, in 2022, the direction of mobile phone manufacturers' self-developed chips is most likely still in terms of imaging.
Recently, some foreign netizens posted a screenshot of the code suspected of xiaomi mix 5 pro, and it is inferred from the information in the screenshot that the xiaomi mix 5 is likely to be equipped with a surging C2 chip, which also confirms this view from the side.
Folding screens continue to be hot, and mobile phone manufacturers diversify their layout market segments
Find a random person on the street and ask him: What do you think will be the biggest change in smartphones in 2021? Nine times out of ten will answer the folding screen.
Indeed, entering 2021, folding screen mobile phones seem to have reached the critical point of the outbreak, major brands have launched their own folding screen mobile phones, and the price has dropped again and again, and there is a great tendency to knock the folding screen mobile phone from a "luxury machine" to a "high-end machine".
Even at the end of the year, the popularity of the folding screen is still undiminished. In the short month from December to January, OPPO and Honor have launched two folding screen mobile phones, which have triggered heated discussions in the market.
So, will folding screen mobile phones become the mainstream of the smartphone market in 2022? In order to solve this question, the author interviewed Xiao Zou, a veteran digital enthusiast.
Xiao Zou believes that there is no doubt that the folding screen will become a hot track for manufacturers to compete for in 2022. This is because in the current market, the folding screen is still an innovative scientific and technological product, which can show the brand's technical "hard power", and is likely to show the following two development trends:
1. More manufacturers have entered the folding screen track, and the market has further expanded
At present, the mainstream mobile phone brands in the market, such as Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, Honor, etc., have successively launched folding screen mobile phones, and the market has completed the initial cultivation of consumers. iResearch predicts that in 2021, China's folding screen mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 1.69 million units, a growth rate of 44.4%.
At the same time, manufacturers' attention to the folding screen market has also promoted the rapid maturity of hinge technology. According to the statistics of Ai Media Consulting, the number of patent applications related to folding screen hinges in China in 2020 was 160, an increase of 28 over 2019 and an increase of 95 over 2018.
The successive maturity of the market and technology has brought more fierce competition, and more brands have entered the track, and the market has been enriched.
2, the price of folding screen mobile phones further declined
When it comes to the stage where mobile phone manufacturers have launched folding screen mobile phones, it also means that the entry threshold of folding screens has been reduced, and the scientific and technological content is relatively not so high.
In this context, in order to compete for the right to speak in the market, mobile phone manufacturers are likely to reduce prices or even launch "affordable" mobile phones.
But Xiao Zou also believes that folding screens will not become the mainstream of the mobile phone market in 2022. Not only because there are still more problems in folding screen mobile phones, such as low production capacity of flexible OLED screens, although many domestic screen manufacturers are accelerating the construction of related production lines, but domestic flexible OLED screens still have problems such as insufficient screen hardness and no high refresh rate. Also because in his view, the folding screen is more in line with the expectations of mobile phone manufacturers to enrich the market segment.
Xiao Zou said that before the emergence of breakthrough innovative technology, folding screen mobile phones, shouting for many years under the screen camera technology, is just a strategic policy of diversified and comprehensive layout of manufacturers, the purpose is to radiate every market segment and maximize benefits.
Therefore, in 2022, instead of paying attention to the development trend of folding screen mobile phones, it is better to pay attention to which market segments have been derived with the development of emerging technologies, and the latter is the key to determining the development of smart phones in the true sense at present.
The average price of smart phones has risen, and the attention of all parties to high-end models has increased
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of smartphones has been in a slow and firm process of growth.
According to data from foreign data agency Counterpoint Research, the average sales price of smartphones in the world has risen by 10% in the second quarter of 2020, which was mainly affected by the epidemic at that time, but the gradual popularity of high-end models and the increase in shipments of 5G equipment have also affected the average selling price to a certain extent.
By 2021, the impact of the epidemic has not been completely eliminated, and the shortage of chips has further increased the cost of mobile phone manufacturing. At the same time, as several major mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have set their sights on the cake of the high-end mobile phone market, a large number of high-end models have poured into the market, which has also caused the average market price to rise to a certain extent.
However, the impact of domestic brands on the high-end market is an inevitable trend. On the one hand, after years of operation in the low-end market, "Xiaomi OV" and so on have completed the brand recognition construction in the relevant market, consumers have a certain loyalty to it, and the value increase brought by continuing to dig deep into the market is not large, in other words, mobile phone manufacturers inevitably encountered a growth bottleneck.
On the other hand, after Huawei's development was blocked, the high-end market left a large blank space, providing an opportunity for other domestic brands to impact the high-end.
For consumers, the impact of the increase in the number of high-end models, in addition to the choice of more, is the increase in the price of mobile phones.
According to the ZDC Data Research Center, in 2021, consumers' attention to models of 3,000-4,000 yuan, 4,000-5,000 and more than 5,000 yuan has increased significantly. In particular, the price segment of 3000-4000 yuan accounted for 19.85%, an increase of 41.68% year-on-year.
The statistical results of X Science and Technology Laboratory on the data of domestic online hot models in 2021 also show that models with more than 3700 yuan account for 33% of the hot models.
Moreover, with the maturity of 5G technology, 5G devices have also become the first choice for major mobile phone brands to push new ones. According to the data, in 2021, there are more than 380 new models listed in China, including 188 5G mobile phones, and mainstream mobile phone brands on the market have launched 5G mobile phones. Compared with 4G mobile phones, the price of 5G mobile phones is obviously higher.
Under the combined effect of high-end + 5G, it is not surprising that the price of mobile phones has risen. The author believes that the trend of high-end and 5G of smart phones will not only not slow down in 2022, but will also accelerate, and in the keywords of the smart phone market in 2022, "price increase" is likely to be a word that will be frequently mentioned.
The final outlook for the smartphone market in 2022
In the mobile phone market, the end of 2021 has just been drawn, and the competition for 2022 has begun.
In January alone, four flagship models were officially announced, namely the realme GT2 series, iQOO 9, Honor Magic V, and OnePlus 10 Pro, all equipped with Qualcomm's top chips. The intention of mobile phone manufacturers to grab the "opening red" of 2022 has been very obvious.
Even so, this year's international smartphone market pattern is generally difficult to see new changes compared with 2021. After Huawei folds, the remaining mobile phone manufacturers are not enough to compete with Samsung, Apple and other companies, whether from the perspective of technical strength or from the basis of the masses.
To be sure, the high-end market is still the focus of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers this year, folding screen, under-screen camera technology will be further mature, there is hope to bring us some small surprises in the second half of the year.
At the same time, due to the shift in the development center of gravity of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, the low-end market will "recover" again, and more other mobile phone brands will emerge, mainly old brands that have been revitalized after withdrawing from the market. Most of these brands hold the purpose of relying on the low-end market to re-open their reputation and "get back" the market share they once had, and will not enter the high-end market for a while and a half.
Increasing R&D investment in the chip field is bound to be a long-term problem in the future, which determines whether domestic mobile phone manufacturers other than Huawei can gain a firm foothold in the high-end market. But unfortunately, due to the high technical cost and time cost of chip research and development, it is difficult for us to see these manufacturers show breakthrough results in the short term, and we may look forward to their research and development in other fields, such as air charging, etc., and there is a possibility of a large detonation of the market.
In 2022, facing the strength of Samsung, Apple and other strength warriors, what surprises can domestic brands bring to us? Let's wait and see.
Resources:
[1] X Technology Lab: Spit blood to sort out 91 hot-selling model data, predicting the new trend of mobile phones in 2022
[2] Zhongguancun Online: 2021 end mobile phone ZDC report: OV Glory Xiaomi share accounted for more than half, Apple led the high-end market