On January 3, the leaders of the five legal nuclear powers of China, Russia, the United States, Britain, and France issued the Joint Statement on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding an Arms Race. This is the first time that the world's five nuclear powers (and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council) have formally expressed their position on this top priority concerning the destiny and future of the world. The joint statement is of great and positive significance in preventing the United States from triggering major power conflicts and nuclear wars and bringing a little "strategic stability" to the current world tensions. The world is highly concerned. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and President shahid of the 76th session of the Un General Assembly have expressed their appreciation and welcome for this.
The 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), scheduled for January 4, was again postponed indefinitely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The day before, the above-mentioned joint statement was ushered in, which is really valuable.
The joint statement reflects China's consistent position, and China has also played a leading and promoting role in this regard. In the face of the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the intensification of nuclear weapons research and development, and the increase of military pressure on Russia, the Russian side is also happy to see this common commitment. The question is why did US President Joe Biden also "cheerfully" sign the statement? Of course, it is impossible to "become a Buddha on the ground." Biden, a veteran Democratic politician who has been in Capitol Hill for half a century, naturally has his own deliberations.
January 20 is the first anniversary of Biden's administration, may wish to take Biden's signing of the joint statement on nuclear war as a clue, from the table and inside to analyze what kind of policy Biden pursues?
(1) Neither strange nor bound.
As early as 1988, when President Reagan, a Republican, visited the Soviet Union, he promised not to start a nuclear war. Albright, a Democrat who has been secretary of state since 1997, also bluntly said that destructive nuclear weapons are not practical weapons in war, but "nuclear deterrence" political tools. The reluctance of the United States to commit itself so far not to be the first to use nuclear weapons is precisely to strengthen its nuclear deterrent role. But now that the five nuclear powers have the "second nuclear strike capability" of "ensuring mutual destruction" (MAD), it is more obvious that nuclear war is "unwinnable and unbought", and the United States has to admit this unavoidable fact.
Moreover, the United States has never taken the United Nations and international agreements seriously. For example, when it was available, it fought the Korean War in the name of the "United Nations Army", and conversely, it cobbled together the "Allied Forces" to fight the Iraq War despite the strong opposition of the United Nations Security Council. So far, the United States has refused to join the UNITED Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, but has used this as an excuse to stir up trouble in the South China Sea and even run amok "freely" in the Taiwan Strait. For the United States, it does not care to trample on international law, not to mention that the joint statement is not binding under international law.
(2) Hedging public opinion and appeasing allies.
In recent years, the United States has continuously exaggerated the possibility of so-called "limited nuclear war" and vigorously developed low-yield, short-range, miniaturized, tactical-grade nuclear weapons. Biden continues to enjoy taking office, with defense costs rising to $768.2 billion in fiscal 2022. On September 15 last year, Biden abruptly announced the establishment of the "Security" Alliance (AUKUS) between the United States, Britain and Australia, and helped the Australian side build eight nuclear submarines. The move has raised concerns about nuclear proliferation and the risk of nuclear war. Biden's signing of the anti-nuclear war statement at this time may be able to hedge public opinion and appease allies.
(3) There are many failures and urgent need to score points.
In the past year, the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States has spiraled out of control, with more than 65 million confirmed cases and more than 850,000 deaths. More than one million cases were confirmed on the day the statement was signed. Spurring the economy and printing money, inflation reached a 40-year high (7%) in December last year. Supply chains are broken, daily supplies are in short supply, public resentment is boiling, and supermarkets and even containers are looted en masse. The two parties are at odds, society is torn apart, and shootings are proliferating. During the farce of the World Democracy Summit last December, protesters carried coffins to the United Nations headquarters in New York to satirize the bankruptcy of American democracy. Biden's approval rating fell the most in any U.S. president. Democrats could lose control of Congress in this year's midterm elections. The anxious Biden urgently needs to score points, sign this joint statement with positive energy, and more or less can pay himself gold.
(4) Inherit the predecessor and upgrade to 2.0.
The previous Trump messed up the United States and disrupted the world. Biden's narrow victory in the election was mainly due to the fact that his predecessor was a "rotten apple". People had hoped that Biden would cut with his predecessor to stabilize his position, at least to bring strategic, phased temporary relief and relaxation to the United States and the world. Unfortunately, Biden was kidnapped by two parties of Cold War mentality politicians, consortiums and military industry interest groups plus extreme populist ideologies to pursue the "2.0" version of Trumpism. The common feature is to unscrupulously maintain the hegemonic position of the United States in the world, which has begun to decline relatively, and the difference is to put on the hypocritical "vest" of the Democratic Party and then fight again. In the name of "democracy, freedom, and human rights," we practice hegemony and hegemony. In the name of "multilateralism", we should practice extreme national egoism. In the name of the "Like-minded Democratic Alliance", it is true that gangs and factions avoid fighting alone. In the name of the "rule-based international order, which is "king-made," it is necessary to smear and suppress "major strategic competitors."
(5) "Extreme pressure" to resurrect Dulles.
Dulles was Permanent Representative to the United Nations from 1946 to 49, Adviser to the Secretary of State from 1950 to 1952, and Secretary of State from 1953 to 59. He not only has the bad track of "inspecting" North Korea's 38th Line to "take pictures", but also the notoriety of "Brinkmanship". At the 1953 Congressional nomination hearing, Dulles claimed to "liberate" the "enslaved" people of the socialist country. Describing his "war brinkmanship" in 1956, he said: "It is a necessary art to be able to reach the brink of war without getting involved in it." ...... If you want to escape the war or dare not approach the edge, then you have failed. ...... When we go to the brink and face the war, we can act tough. In the same year, after the 20th Congress of the CPSU, he declared that "socialism is a threat to the free world" and that it must and may "disintegrate from within." Today, it is found that the ghost of Dulles is still hidden in Biden's "vest". It is just that the times are different and the democratic and republican parties are different, and the so-called "maximum pressure" implemented by Biden is actually a variant of Dulles's "war brinkmanship".
(6) Build a "safety guardrail" and let go of the "Taiwan card".
Over the past year, biden's team has kept its mouth shut about the "China threat" and has adopted a so-called "tough policy" of "comprehensive, precise, whole-government" and "extreme pressure" against China "starting from the position of strength". Biden continued to dump the grim COVID-19 pandemic in China and ordered intelligence to do a "traceability investigation" of the presumption of guilt. The vast number of US companies and consumers strongly oppose Trump's trade war with China that harms others and harms themselves, but the Biden administration has so far been unwilling to give up. It even fabricated century-old lies such as "forced labor" and "genocide" in Xinjiang to set off a demon of sanctions. Not content with the failure of the CIA to plan the Hong Kong riots, it continued to openly support "Hong Kong independence." In desperation, the Canadian side released Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, but stepped up efforts to suppress and sanction Chinese high-tech enterprises and individuals. On the surface, the U.S.-China relationship (or "fierce competition") is defined by the three elements of "cooperation, competition, and confrontation"), but in essence, it is unscrupulous and all-round confrontation.
At that time, Dulles regarded Taiwan as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" of the United States, and Biden regarded the "Taiwan card" as a tool to hinder and delay China's peaceful rise, national rejuvenation and reunification. The "Taiwan Relations Act" and the so-called "Six Guarantees" override UN General Assembly Resolution GA2758 and the three Sino-US joint communiques. Secretary of State Blinken pretended to be a "slip of the tongue" in calling Taiwan a "nation" and openly supported Taiwan's participation in the United Nations system. Biden even used "slips of the tongue" to say that he wanted to defend Taiwan.
In their first video meeting with President Xi Jinping on November 16 last year, Biden vowed to "not seek to change the Chinese system, not to oppose China through strengthening alliances, and to have no intention of clashing with China" and "do not support 'Taiwan independence' and hope that peace and stability will remain in the Taiwan Strait region." "The voice is still there, but the Us side is still the same."
On December 6 last year, the United States announced "diplomatic resistance" to the Beijing Winter Olympics. On December 27, Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2022, which contains a number of anti-China provisions to curb China. On January 4 this year, Lithuanian President Nauseda said that it was a mistake to allow the establishment of a "Taiwan representative office", and the United States still publicly supported the cube's decision. On January 11, the United States announced that Carl . The Vinson Carrier Battle Group and the Essex Amphibious Assault Ship Battle Group, (plus marines and a large number of F35 fighters) are to be jointly exercised in the South China Sea. It seems that after the Establishment of the so-called US-China "Guard Rail," especially after the signing of the Joint Declaration on Nuclear War, the United States may be even more free to make trouble at the doorstep of China in the South China Sea and even use Taiwan as cannon fodder.
(7) Using Ukraine as a bet to force Russia to comply.
From January 10 to 13, the United States, NATO and the OSCE held three rounds of "security dialogue" with Russia in the three places. The focus issue is that Russia has proposed not allowing Ukraine to join NATO and not allowing the deployment of offensive weapons in the periphery. Draft safeguards treaties and agreements were submitted to that end. The United States and NATO are dismissive, but instead play the Russian side deliberately "invading" Ukraine, forcing the Russian side to immediately withdraw the border army, while the United States has sent a large number of military supplies to Ukraine, in essence, it is also intending to use Ukraine as cannon fodder to force Russia to comply. Both sides have spoken harshly, the dialogue has reached a dead end, and tensions are still developing.
(viii) The "house of cards" is unreliable.
Biden's "confidence" comes from misjudging that his flashy 6-story "house of cards" is very reliable: the Three Augustus Countries, the Quadripartite Security Mechanism, the Five Eyes Alliance, the Group of Seven, the 30-nation NATO and the so-called "World Democracy Summit". In fact, looking back at the "occupation of Capitol Hill" on January 6 last year, the "Saigon-style escape" in Kabul on August 15, and the "stabbing in the back" of allies France on September 15 for the construction of a nuclear submarine for Australia, the world, including US allies and partners, has come to a conclusion: "The United States cannot be trusted." That being the case, the "House of Cards" is also "unreliable" for the United States. Biden simply put on the "emperor's new clothes" in Hans Christian Andersen's fairy tales and reveled in himself.
Former senior American official and well-known scholar at Harvard University, Joseph M. Nye wrote several articles in November last year stressing that the United States has not "declined." Judging from his identity, it may be insincere to deny the historical trend that "the United States' world hegemonic status has begun to decline" by saying that the United States is still the "world boss." However, it is precisely in view of the fact that the United States is still the "world boss" that the "house of cards" will voluntarily or involuntarily and to varying degrees submit to the "boss", in fact, it is the same bed and different dreams, each with its own plans.
Germany, France, and other European countries are well aware that the United States is deliberately trying to worsen European-Russian relations, both to suppress Russia and control Europe. The Eu-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (and even the EU-China Investment Agreement) has been temporarily blocked, but it is impossible to permanently "self-harm" at the stake of major European interests. Japan and Australia have been ahead of the US charge to contain China and are still happy to see the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) enter into force this year. ASEAN countries have resisted the pressure of the United States to force "choose sides" and maintain win-win cooperation with China. India, which has border disputes with China, also weighed the situation, and on January 12, the 14th round of talks between China and India at the level of military chiefs issued a positive joint communiqué. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also decided not to participate in the U.S.-instigated farce of boycotting the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Since the beginning of this year, France and Germany will serve as the presidencies of the European Union and the Group of Seven respectively, which will further emphasize the urgency of European strategic, diplomatic and defense autonomy. On January 3, Mérancot, the leader of The French "Indomitable France Party," openly advocated "withdrawing from NATO" and not following the United States in engaging in "military adventurism."
The United States has helped Japan strengthen its combat strength, and in response to China's "comprehensive deterrence" and "joint combat plan," former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has even shouted that "if Taiwan has something, Japan has a problem." It is worth noting that Japan has taken the opportunity of the United States to loosen its grip on anti-China needs to speed up the revision of the Constitution to get rid of the shackles of a defeated country that "exclusively guards its defense." In the end, the United States is "letting the tiger return to the mountain." On December 7 last year, the United States commemorated the 80th anniversary of Pearl Harbor, when 31 Japanese senators and 68 members of the House of Representatives collectively paid homage to the Yasukuni Shrine, which has a Plaque for War II war criminals. The seemingly docile Japan, mindful of the two atomic bombs and the Plaza Accord, which led to a 30-year stagnation in Japan's economy, is full of vengeance.
(9) Back-to-back strategic cooperation between China and Russia.
Both China and Russia are deeply harmed by US hegemonism, and at present, in the face of the Biden administration's "extreme pressure" (war brinkmanship), there is no way to retreat, and only to resolutely counter it in order to safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests. Under the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era," China and Russia will be fearless in strengthening strategic coordination back-to-back. The United States is fanning the flames and provoking riots and color revolutions. But Belarus has instead accelerated its "integration" with Russia. In early January, unrest in Kazakhstan also quickly subsided with the help of CCE. China and Russia will never allow war and chaos in Central Asia and will contribute to safeguarding the achievements of World War II and safeguarding world peace, stability, cooperation and development.
(10) Historical positioning, choose for yourself.
Due to the hegemonic Cold War mentality and ideological arrogance and prejudice, Biden misjudged both his opponents and himself, and was deeply trapped in a strategic dilemma and lost ground. It is difficult to achieve the so-called "Realistic Strategy of Restraint" envisioned by some American scholars, and it is also tempted by the so-called "war brinkmanship". History proves that the "edge" can be crossed by the irrational, and people must be vigilant against the risk of war!
When President Xi Jinping met with Biden for the first time on November 16 last year, he solemnly pointed out: "History is fair, and what a politician does, whether it is merit or not, history must be recorded." It seems that Mr. Biden is difficult to "live forever", but do not be a "sinner of eternity" after World War II!