For at least a month, we won't see the "little marshal" playing.
Durant is expected to be sidelined for 4 to 6 weeks due to a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee. From the estimated recovery time, Durant belongs to the second-degree sprain, and the average rehabilitation cycle of such knee injuries is generally about 40 days.
The 2022 All-Star Weekend will take place from February 19 to February 21, Beijing time, followed by a small holiday, with the Nets' first game after the All-Star on February 25 and the first away game being Feb. 27 (playing bucks). According to the recovery schedule, the date of Durant's comeback should be after the All-Star.
The Nets have 17 games to play before All-Star Weekend, 12 of them on the road, including a four-game streak and a five-game streak. Since Irving has not yet been vaccinated, he can only participate in away games allowed by the epidemic prevention conditions, and the away game before the All-Star league was originally a good opportunity for the big three to join forces to brush up on the record, but now it seems that the Samsung consecutive pearl will wait until the end of February at the earliest.
February 10 local time is the closing date for this season's trade, will Durant's injury time push the Nets to operate and fill the loopholes caused by Adu's absence?
The Nets may make some trading attempts, but it may not be directly related to Durant's absence, because it is basically impossible to fill the impact of Adu's level of star injury with mid-season reinforcements, and if the Nets operate, they still focus on the needs of the championship.
The precondition for the deal is chips, and the Nets' draft picks have been heavily overdrawn, and they are currently certain to have a first-round pick in 2028. The Nets also have two trade exceptions worth 11.5 million and 6.3 million, respectively, that can be used to exchange players, but will bring high luxury taxes, such as the Nets, if they use the 6.3 million trade exceptions, their total luxury tax will increase from the current 110 million to 142 million.
Instead of trading, it is better to wait until the Playoffs Qualification Deadline on March 1, when some bought-out players will enter the market, and the value may be higher.
Since Harden joined, the Nets have played a total of 113 games in the regular season plus playoffs, of which only 16 are the big three, with a proportion of only 14%.
If only the regular season is counted, the Nets played 101 games after the formation of the big three, and only 10 games were played by three stars together, with a proportion of only 10%.
However, in the 91 regular season games that failed to make the Big Three together, only two games were played by the three, which is the benefit of the abundant resources of the stars, even if they are reduced for various reasons, they can maintain dual or single cores in most games, and they will not be leaderless.
During Durant's injury, the Nets had to rely more on Harden and Irving. In 19 games of the Net season, Durant was absent, hardened and Irving teamed up to lead the team, winning 16 of the 19 games, and the 84% win rate was quite outstanding. Considering that the Nets had more away games before All-Star Weekend, although these away games Irving could not play all of them, such as the away game against the Knicks on February 17, because the game was played in New York, Irving could not play, but most of the away games, Irving can still participate.
Harden and Irving's combination is an important motivation for the Nets to survive Adu's absence, especially considering the difficulty of the former All-Star away games, including the Warriors, Suns, Jazz, Nuggets, and Heat, all of which are hard battles. The Nets have been strong enough this season, and they have abused a bull by relying on the big three, and now Adu is injured again.
The Nets need auxiliary players such as Mills to step up and share the pressure on Oha, but the focus is still on the play of the two stars, especially Irving. At his best, Irving is the king of indiscriminate singles, but he has a process of adaptation after his comeback, especially this season because of the change in the scale of blowing penalties has brought about an increase in defensive confrontation, Irving has to take the time to find the feeling, he has only played in the 3 games he has played, the true shooting rate is only 52.8%, much lower than last season's 61%.
Irving can only play away at present, and in the game he cannot play according to the epidemic prevention regulations, the Nets will enter Harden single-core mode. The Nets' record in 11 games in which the Big Three have only had Harden alone, is 7-4, or 64 percent, consistent with their winning percentage this season.
The Nets are currently 0.5 wins behind the Bulls in second place in the East and just 0.5 wins ahead of the third-place Heat. The top six in the East are in a melee state, with only 2.5 win differences between the Bulls and the sixth-place Cavaliers, and the ranking can be described as changing rapidly.
During Durant's absence, the Nets' record floor was to hold the top six in the East and not fall into the playoff area (the playoffs were seventh to tenth in the division).
As for the ceiling, of course, it is still the first place in the East. Although Irving's special circumstances give the Nets an "away advantage", in the case of fans on the field, home and away are still very different.
To be honest, if it is really in the playoffs, to play a key battle with the Bucks and other championship rivals at home (Tianwangshan or grab seven), will the Nets prefer to withstand the pressure of public opinion and pay a fine to Irving to let him play?
Moreover, the regular season is only halfway through, and Irving and the Nets still have time to think about how to solve the "part-time" problem. What if, Irving agrees to a vaccine?
The Nets don't have to be in a hurry, and so is Durant. The injury is bound to have an impact on Adu's personal honors, and in the first and second rounds of the 2022 All-Star Vote, KD is the King of the Eastern Conference. Now that Durant is likely to miss the All-Star, it is difficult to say whether he can retain the position of Eastern Conference king.
Durant's biggest loss compared to the Eastern Conference champion may be the battle to exit the MVP this season. Even if the recovery time is calculated on a four-month basis, Durant will miss 13 games, and he has missed six games before this injury. According to ESPN, since Bill Wharton in 1977-78, no player has won the MVP with more than 11 absences in a single season.
Durant currently leads the scoring list with an average of 29.3 points per game, will this injury make him lose his scoring title due to insufficient number of games? One theory is that the selection of the season's data kings has a basic standard of 70 games, which is a misunderstanding, in fact, the NBA official standards are points, rebounds, assists, steals and block kings, and the attendance rate must reach 70%, that is, 82 regular season games to play at least 58 games.
Durant has played 36 games this season, and if he returns after the All-Star, the Nets have 23 more regular season games, and if full attendance, a total of 59 games in the season, meeting the criteria for running for the top scorer. Considering that the Nets need to seize the time to rehearse the rotation lineup that will be used for the playoffs in the final stages of the regular season, Durant will try to play as many games as possible if the body allows, but the full attendance may not be necessary.
Does this mean that if Durant does not play 58 games this season, the scoring champion will definitely lose?
Not necessarily, because according to the league's season data king selection criteria, there is a special case, that is, a player has played less than 58 games, but his data is calculated according to the average of 58 games, and he is still the first in the league.
For example, the 2005-06 steal king was Gerald Wallace, who played 55 games that season, less than the minimum standard of 58 games, but Wallace had a total of 138 steals in the season, an average of 2.4 according to 58 games, still the league's first, so Wallace was the steal king that season.
That is to say, even if Durant has played less than 58 games, as long as his score is still leading the league according to the average of 58 games, the scoring king can still be included.
For Durant, the regular season scoring champion is purely the icing on the cake, and MVP is an important honor, but it cannot be forced now.
Durant's best final chapter of the season is a replica of his first year with the Warriors. Durant also suffered a secondary sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his knee during the 2016-17 regular season, missing 19 consecutive games, and returned to the throne to help the Warriors win the championship with a 16-1 record in the playoffs.
In the 2017 Finals, Durant averaged 35.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks per game, leading the team to defeat the Cavaliers led by James, Irving and Love, and Durant was crowned the MVP of the Finals for the first time in his NBA career.
If a similar script could be repeated this season, Durant would be nothing if he lost his regular season MVP and scoring champion.