Vigilance: +65 cases locally! Zhang Wenhong's latest judgment came

Source: National Health Commission official website, CCTV news client

From 0 to 24:00 on January 15, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 119 new confirmed cases. Among them, there were 54 imported cases (24 cases in Shanghai, 14 cases in Guangdong, 6 cases in Sichuan, 3 cases in Yunnan, 2 cases in Liaoning, 2 cases in Guangxi, 1 case in Beijing, 1 case in Tianjin, and 1 case in Fujian), including 6 cases of conversion from asymptomatic infected persons to confirmed cases (2 cases in Liaoning, 2 cases in Sichuan, 1 case in Guangdong, and 1 case in Yunnan); 65 cases in local cases (33 cases in Tianjin, including 32 cases in Jinnan District and 1 case in Xiqing District; 29 cases in Henan, including 15 cases in Anyang City, 7 cases in Xuchang City, 7 cases in Zhengzhou City, and 1 case in Beijing, in Haidian District 1 case in Guangdong, zhuhai city, 1 case in Shaanxi city, in Xi'an city), including 6 cases converted from asymptomatic infected people to confirmed cases (all in Tianjin). There were no new deaths. There were 9 new suspected cases, all of which were imported from abroad (all in Shanghai).

On the same day, 109 new cured and discharged cases were cured, 2390 close contacts were released from medical observation, and the number of severe cases increased by 2 cases compared with the previous day.

There are 1264 confirmed cases (no severe cases) imported from overseas, and 14 suspected cases. The cumulative number of confirmed cases is 12,064, the cumulative number of cured and discharged cases is 10,800, and there are no deaths.

As of 24:00 on January 15, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there are 3,461 confirmed cases (including 13 severe cases), 96,767 cured and discharged cases, 4,636 cumulative deaths, 104864 confirmed cases and 14 suspected cases. A total of 1478462 close contacts have been traced, and 53,299 close contacts are still under medical observation.

31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 52 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 47 cases imported from abroad and 5 cases from the mainland (3 cases in Shanghai, including 2 cases in Putuo District and 1 case in Baoshan District; 1 case in Zhejiang, in Hangzhou City; 1 case in Guangdong, in Zhongshan City); 12 cases were converted to confirmed cases on the same day (6 cases imported from abroad); 30 cases were released from medical observation on the same day (29 cases imported from abroad); and 753 cases of asymptomatic infected people who were still under medical observation (701 cases imported from abroad).

A total of 30,705 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Among them, there were 12,857 cases in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (12,366 cases discharged from hospital, 213 deaths), 79 cases in Macao Special Administrative Region (77 cases discharged from hospital), and 17,769 cases in Taiwan Region (13,742 cases discharged from hospital, 851 deaths).

Zhang Wenhong's latest research!

On the evening of January 15, CCTV News "Theory of Relativity" connected With Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Disease Medicine and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University. He made an up-to-date study of the current epidemic situation.

About vaccine effectiveness and the fourth dose

The spread of Omikeron has led to a global spike in cases, reigniting public discussion about the vaccine's role. Zhang Wenhong said that studies on including variants have shown that the new crown vaccine has a significant effect in reducing severe illness and mortality, especially the third dose of vaccine can increase antibody levels by dozens of times, "once there is a local case, we can minimize the patient's severe illness to the lowest level we can."

As for the fourth stitch, he thought it was too early to say. At present, China and the international community are mainly given three injections, and only a few countries such as Israel have recommended a fourth injection for people who are elderly and at high risk of underlying diseases. "In the future in China, I personally think that people with low immunity and advanced age may also be able to get a fourth injection. But now there is no need to be so anxious, and there will be more international experience for us to use. ”

Omikron for the next six months

The import risk has always been very high

Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has been sporadic at many points, and according to the published circulation situation, some of them have come from relatively independent overseas imports. "In the next six months, the import risk should still be very high." Zhang Wenhong said that to further improve the quality of prevention and control, if we can run to the front of the virus through epidemic prevention, we can win the victory of each dynamic zero clearance, "I am deeply confident in this, there will be relatively big challenges in the future, we must be prepared."

In Zhang Wenhong's view, the severe illness of Omi Kerong is declining, but its toxicity can still not be ignored. At present, the international community's determination to prevent and control Omicron has been greatly reduced, and Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently said that in theory, everyone in the United States may be infected with Omicron. In this regard, Zhang Wenhong said: "The latest calculated case fatality rate in the United States is 0.24%, so many vaccines, the natural infection rate is so high, and there is a 0.24% case fatality rate, which is 2.4 times higher than the 0.1% of the normal seasonal flu." This means that you can't ignore it, and if you really don't do anything, it will have very serious consequences. ”

Still believe this could be

The last winter of the COVID-19 pandemic

"I still have a lot of confidence that the COVID-19 pandemic will end at the end of this year." Zhang Wenhong said that in principle, after the next year, whether it is the level of herd immunity, or the immune barrier established through vaccines, or the listing of new crown treatment drugs, it means that "this may be the last 'cold winter'".

Whether it's Delta or Opmiqueron, it's just that the virus has mutated. Zhang Wenhong has said that if the new crown regroups with other coronaviruses, the situation may be worse. In the connection, Zhang Wenhong further explained: "So far, this is still a very low probability event. I believe that the experience we have accumulated in the process of dealing with COVID-19, no matter what kind of mutation the virus will occur in the future, we humans will still be able to cope with it. ”

When asked about his New Year's resolutions, Zhang Wenhong replied: "I hope that next spring festival, every family can be reunited, and every pair of long-distance lovers can hug together." ”