Macro data:
According to the statistics of Chinese Min min bank, at the end of December 2021, the balance of broad money (M2) was 238.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and 1.1 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 64.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and 5.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In December, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 123.4 billion yuan less than that of the same period last year. In December, the increase in the scale of social financing was 2.37 trillion yuan, 720.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Lange Reviews:
With the continuous emergence of the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and superimposing the impact of some international commodity prices such as crude oil continuing to decline, the PPI increase in December continued to fall (see Figure 1 for details), the ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 8.1% year-on-year in 2021, the purchase price of industrial producers rose by 11.0% year-on-year, and the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year. It can be seen that although the PPI high point has passed, but the overall operation is still maintained at a higher position, the PPI to the CPI transmission at a high level is still weak, the PPI-CPI scissors difference continues to narrow, but it is still at a relatively high level, which has played a certain role in alleviating the high cost pressure of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and the overall manufacturing industry has shown signs of gradual recovery.
Judging from the main financial data in December 2021, the growth rate of credit and social finance continued to show a stable upward trend, and the amount of new RMB loans in December decreased slightly month-on-month and decreased slightly year-on-year; the increase in the scale of social financing decreased slightly from the previous month and increased significantly year-on-year (see Figure 2 for details); from the perspective of the whole year of 2021, the amount of new RMB loans increased year-on-year; the increase in the scale of social financing decreased significantly year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of narrow currency (M1) continued to show a bottom-up trend, while broad money ( M2) year-on-year growth rate also rebounded synchronously (see Figure 3 for details), indicating that the central bank's prudent monetary policy maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, but at the same time, the credit structure is not ideal, which also reflects the reality that the financing demand of the real economy still needs to be improved.
Judging from the regular meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the central bank's 2022 work conference, China's monetary policy is gradually strengthening, and in 2022, China's monetary policy is still dominated by "stability", but it will be more inclined to the six words of "forward-looking, accurate and autonomous", while taking into account the balance of total stability and structural adjustment, and further increasing support for the real economy. Since December last year, a number of "14th Five-Year Plan" special plans have been approved, and the amount of special bonds in 2022 has also been issued in advance, coupled with the special bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year, which will form a superposition effect in the first quarter of this year, which is conducive to promoting the start of major domestic projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and also helping infrastructure investment to play a role in supporting the economy. At the same time, with the gradual alleviation of high costs, it will effectively improve the operating conditions of manufacturing enterprises and boost the demand for replenishment of related raw materials. (Lange Steel Research Center Ge Xin)