Today is January 3rd, still on the New Year's Day holiday, first of all, I wish you all a happy new year.
What are we going to talk about today? I still want to talk about international events. At present, the most important international event is that the world pattern is undergoing profound changes. At the end of the year, at least five major events have occurred in the world: First, the epidemic in the United States and europe are getting more and more serious. Second, the world's largest free trade zone RCEP was officially launched. The third is the call between the heads of state of the United States and Russia to discuss Ukraine and other issues, and then US President Biden called Ukrainian President Zelensky. Fourth, the Chinese and Japanese defense ministers have a video call, and the Chinese and Japanese aircraft carriers are in the same frame in the Pacific. Fifth, Chinese and Indian border guards exchanged candies to celebrate the New Year.
Looking at the trend of the world pattern, we mainly look at the extent to which US hegemony has declined. Because the current world pattern is a unipolar pattern of one-super hegemony established by the United States after the Cold War, the degree of decline of US hegemony determines the direction of the world pattern. In 2022, the United States faces a total rout in both directions.
The first direction of the U.S. rout was Ukraine. After the December 30 phone call between the heads of state of the United States and Russia, according to media reports, the situation of the call was not optimistic. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that there is no turning back for Russia. Immediately after the call, President Biden called Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Supposedly, President Biden should have called the Leaders of France and Germany in the European Union, or the leaders of the United Kingdom, but why the puppet president of Ukraine? This shows that on the Ukraine issue, the United States is becoming increasingly isolated. The reason is very simple, no country in the United Kingdom and the European Union is stupid enough to fight a nuclear war between Ukraine and Russia. So when Russia showed off its nuclear weapons, Britain and the European Union were dumbfounded. Therefore, the result of the struggle between the United States and Russia in the direction of Ukraine is that it is increasingly isolated, neither winning the war in Ukraine, but also losing the support of so-called allies such as the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The essence of the Ukrainian problem is that the United States and Russia compete for Europe. Russia wants to cooperate with Europe in friendly cooperation and economic and trade exchanges, after all, Europe is a big customer of Russia's oil and gas resources, so it opened Nord Stream-1 and No. 2. For the United States, Europe is a colony and sphere of influence of the United States, and the United States still wants to dominate Europe. As far as Europe is concerned, the EU wants independence and wants to get rid of the United States and become independent, which is a major strategic trend, but it is also afraid of the military power of the United States and Russia, especially nuclear deterrence. Therefore, Europe's attitude toward the strategic conflict between the United States and Russia is most likely a policy of appeasement, to put it bluntly, that is, to insert its head into the sand pile as an ostrich. Russia's confidence in fighting against the United States lies in China, Sino-Russian relations are friendly, and Russia has enough confidence and determination in the struggle in Ukraine. Therefore, the Chinese and Russian heads of state exchange congratulatory messages in the New Year, the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers greeted each other, and the Winter Olympics are coming, when the Chinese and Russian heads of state personally meet, making US President Biden feel deeply lonely and uneasy. In 2022, Ukraine has a high probability of having two options for the United States: compromise or collapse.
The second direction of the US rout is the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is part of China, which is the consensus of the international community. However, the United States' vain attempt to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force and prevent China's reunification by force is very serious in nature, and is equivalent to nakedly launching a war of aggression against China. Therefore, when the United States and Japan wanted to make military plans on the Taiwan Strait issue, the Japanese defense minister took the initiative to make video calls with the Chinese defense minister. Japan is well aware that the consequences of another aggression against China are very serious. Although Japan is a so-called great power, it is only an island country in a land of bullets, and at the same time it is an enemy of China, Russia, North Korea, and South Korea, and it is controlled by the Heavy Colonization of the United States, and it wants to invade China again.
On the issue of China's liberation of Taiwan and the realization of the reunification of the motherland, Japan's position and attitude are very important. Because Japan is the front-line position where the US military is stationed, daring to participate in the war is equivalent to aggression. Why has Japan been defeated for decades, but Japan still has to submit to the United States? One of the most important reasons is the nuclear weapons of the United States, and the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, which meant that the atomic bombs could be actually fought. The reason why Japan fears the United States and Russia is that the nuclear weapons of the United States and Russia will destroy Japan. Otherwise, on the issue of the South Kuril Islands, why wouldn't Japan dare to sneak up on Russia? Mainly fear of Russian nuclear weapons. As long as Japan has the anti-Russian war impulse, Russia will send strategic bombers to circle Japan a few times, and the minds of Japanese politicians will be calm, because Russia's hydrogen bombs are much more destructive than the original atomic bombs of the United States, and only a few of them may completely wipe out Japan. Therefore, to a certain extent, on the issue of the Eastern Front against Japan, China, Russia, the DPRK and the ROK are unanimous, and they can build a united front and coordinate the unified stand and the red line, which is the fundamental reason why Japan has to take the peaceful line, not the so-called "Peace Constitution" formulated by the United States.
The United States did not dare to risk war with Russia in Ukraine because the European Union and Britain did not dare to enter the war. The British are still condemning Blair, because Blair participated in the War of Afghanistan and the War of Iraq initiated by the United States, which made Britain invest huge but gain very little, equivalent to a loss, so British public opinion wants to liquidate Blair.
The United States does not dare to intervene by force when China liberates Taiwan, and the nature of the United States' armed intervention is to launch a war of aggression against China, because Taiwan is a part of China. Japan did not dare to participate in the war, and the result of Japan's participation in the war was the possibility of national annihilation. Some argue that the launch of the RCEP means that China will not use force to liberate Taiwan. I think on the contrary, the launch of RCEP, China's liberation of Taiwan more confidence and self-confidence, the difficulty will be greatly reduced, the reason is very simple, after Taiwan's return to the motherland, can use RCEP to develop better, otherwise it will be excluded from the Asian development system, this is a fool can figure out the battle. Moreover, for China, the RCEP is just an upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and its signing just shows that Asian countries need China more.
2022 is destined to be the year of the complete collapse of the US global hegemony. 2022 is destined to be the year when the old pattern of the world is broken and the new pattern of the world begins. We are full of strategic expectations for this.
Read more original articles by Long Kaifeng:
1. Long Kaifeng: The United States disintegrated like the Soviet Union? How to disintegrate? How likely it is
2. The defeat of the war in Afghanistan is a turning point in the world pattern, and the United States must accept four strategic lessons
3. Why is the U.S. unipolar global strategy doomed to failure? What's wrong?
4. Under the tripolar pattern of China, the United States and Russia, it has become very easy for China to liberate Taiwan and realize the reunification of the motherland
5. Biden announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the US global strategy contracted, and the time was ripe to liberate Taiwan
6. Improving Sino-US relations, Biden has less and less time, will Biden become Nixon's second?
7. The symbol of the establishment of the three-pole world: NATO has stopped its eastward expansion and China has liberated Taiwan