In 2021, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been spent in uneven wind and waves, and at the end of the year, everyone can't help but want to breathe a sigh of relief, and current political analysts will inevitably review last year's politics, economy, military and diplomacy, and make predictions about the development of the situation in the coming year. I am not exempt from this.
In 2020, senior US military officials judged that the mainland will "armed reunification" with Taiwan in the next 6 years, and many people in overseas political and military academic circles believe that 2022 or 2023 is a high-risk period for the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait, and the Taiwan military analyzes that the next 2-3 years will be the lowest cost of the mainland's "armed reunification" time.
2022 is coming, how the situation in the Taiwan Strait will evolve in the new year, different people will have different interpretations, and the vast number of netizens are even more concerned about the development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait and look forward to the early reunification of the motherland.
To borrow a cliché, the situation in the Taiwan Strait in 2022 will be an extraordinary year. Although this sentence is universal in any year. In the new year, the waves in the Taiwan Strait may not be terrible, but the waves will still be inevitable.
Who depends on the variables of the development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Chinese mainland, Taiwan or the United States? Fundamentally speaking, it seems to be Taiwan, but in fact, it is more american.
Recently, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang said in an exclusive interview with the US media that if Neither China nor the United States wants to go to war, it is necessary to jointly oppose and contain "Taiwan independence" and give peace an opportunity to let peace win. Ambassador Qin did not use esoteric and obscure language this time, and his vernacular was straightforward. The December 26 article in the Taiwan Strait Zhongshi News pointed out that Ambassador Qin's words expressed three meanings: First, the mainland cherishes peace and does not want to fight; second, "Taiwan independence" will force the mainland to fight a war, and the United States will definitely be involved, so "Taiwan independence" will be a disaster for Both China and the United States; third, if China and the United States can "jointly manage Taiwan independence," the peaceful status quo in the Taiwan Strait can be maintained, which is good for both sides.
Ambassador Qin Gang spoke very bluntly and in a very good way about the problems that may exist in the future situation in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan independence separatist forces rely to a large extent on the United States in their deeds.
If we say that The Taiwan independence elements are a slave image in front of the United States, perhaps the words are a little rough, but the words are not rough. If we look at the photos of Chen Shui-bian shaking hands with Clinton that year, and if we look at the scene of Tsai Ing-wen, who was Taiwan's so-called "president" when US senators arrived in Taiwan in 2021, we know that it is not too much to call The Taiwan independence elements slaves in front of the United States.
The Taiwan independence separatist forces are making a lot of noise and unhappiness, and the "Taiwan independence" movement is big or small, and it can be said that it is closely related to the United States. If Sino-US relations ease up and the United States fears the end of war, Taiwan independence separatist activities will inevitably converge; if the United States supports the Taiwan independence forces, the taiwan separatist forces' behavior will inevitably run wild. It can be said that without the support of the United States, The Taiwan independence splittists can only use the so-called "independence" as a tool for political manipulation to obtain personal and small group interests, and dare not have any substantive "Taiwan independence" moves. When the United States feels that the means of containing China have exhausted and have little effect, and when the United States takes up Taiwan as a "pawn" to contain China, the Taiwan independence separatists seem to be like playing chicken blood, creating incidents on the cross-strait issue and serving the us masters.
Taiwan, the "pawn" of the United States, is more like a kite in the hands of the United States, flying or closing it all according to the wishes and needs of the United States. There is no doubt that Taiwan is the core interest of China's national interests, and the United States knows this very well, although there is no shortage of arrogant people in the United States clamoring to stop China's rise at the cost of war with China, but more politicians and academic elites in the United States understand the consequences of going to war with China, and the United States cannot afford to go to war with Chinese mainland. It is precisely in this way that the US Government has so far manipulated the Taiwan Strait issue against China, but has always maintained "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan issue.
In 2022, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will not ease, and continued tension will continue to be the theme of this year. The strategy of the United States to manipulate Taiwan to contain China will not change; the trick of both igniting and controlling taiwan and the shareholders will continue to be staged, and the trick of the Taiwan independence separatists to "rely on the United States and seek independence" will not end. At the same time, the Chinese mainland's control over the situation in the Taiwan Strait will also be more firm, borrowing from the Bible's Matthew Gospel that "the rich are richer, the poor are poorer," and the mainland will be "softer and harder" toward Taiwan. That is to say, the united front strategy will be more widely implemented, the suppression of die-hard Taiwan independence elements will be more severe, and more goodwill will be released to those who generally advocate or support Taiwan independence. In addition, Chinese the sword of Damocles, which is aimed at the Taiwan independence separatist forces, will be hung high, and the possibility of taking "decisive measures" against the adventurous acts of the Taiwan independence separatist forces is still very high. In short, I believe that the reunification of the motherland is on the way!