Factors affecting steel prices
China Railway won the bid for 85.7 billion yuan in major projects
China Railway announced that recently, the company won the bid for a number of major projects, with a total bid price of about 86.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 8.82% of the company's operating income in 2020 under China accounting standards. The project consists of 4 railway projects and 31 municipal and other projects. The specific projects are shown in the figure:
Analyst view: China Railway won the bid for major projects, will increase steel procurement in the next period of time, medium and long-term continue to be good steel prices.
In the first 11 months of this year, China completed an investment of 3.28 trillion yuan in transportation fixed assets
China's Ministry of Transport disclosed at the National Transportation Work Conference on the 23rd that from January to November this year, it completed the investment in transportation fixed assets of 3.28 trillion yuan, of which 640.1 billion yuan was railways, 2.53 trillion yuan were highways and waterways, and 105 billion yuan was civil aviation. It is expected that more than 9,000 kilometers of expressways will be newly renovated (expanded) throughout the year, about 1,000 kilometers of high-grade waterways will be added and improved, 9 newly certified civil transport airports will be issued, and the operating mileage of urban rail transit will exceed 1,000 kilometers. The construction of major projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and supporting highways, the Yinjiang-Jihuai Shipping Project, and the Second Phase project of the Lianyungang 300,000-ton Waterway has been promoted in an orderly manner, the Beijing-Harbin high-speed railway and the Beijing-Singapore Expressway have been fully connected, and the first electrified railway in Tibet has been opened for operation.
Analyst view: Infrastructure projects as one of the key points of national development, increasing their investment quota will drive the procurement of raw materials, steel price demand continues to grow, medium and long-term good steel prices.
China Steel Association: In mid-December, key steel enterprises produced 1.8905 million tons of crude steel per day, down 2.26% month-on-month
In mid-December, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.8905 million tons, down 2.26% from the previous month; Steel inventories were 13.570 million tons, an increase of 227,500 tons over the previous month, an increase of 1.71%.
Heavy snow is falling, and the coldest day is coming
According to China Weather Network, from December 24 to 26, the cold wave will affect most of the central and eastern regions, and some parts of the eastern Parts of Huanghuai and Jiangnan will cool down by 12 to 14 °C, and the local area will be above 14 °C. The highest temperature in North China and Huanghuai will generally fall below the freezing point tomorrow, and the minimum temperature in the south will drop to 0 °C and below for the first time. At the same time, the scope of rain and snow is large, and there may be heavy snowfall in Hunan, Guizhou and other places on weekends, and Hebei will welcome a wide range of rain and snow weather.
Analyst view: In the face of a new round of cooling, the scope of rain and snow is gradually expanding, abnormal weather will have an impact on the construction and manufacturing and transportation industry, short-term demand has been reduced, and steel prices have been negative.
Market
Steel prices are mainly raised today
According to the data of China Steel Network App:
2 of the 24 markets of rebar fell by 10-20, 5 rose by 10-20, 20mm HRB400E The average price was 4836 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton from the previous trading day;
In 16 of the 24 markets of hot coil, the average price of hot rolled coil rose by 10-50, and the average price of hot-rolled coil was 4850 yuan / ton, an increase of 18 yuan / ton from the previous trading day;
1 of the 23 markets of medium and thick plates fell by 20, 7 rose by 10-40, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary plate was 5122 yuan / ton, an increase of 4 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
Today, a total of 21 steel mills have adjusted prices, raised 2, and raised prices by 10; 7 have been lowered, with a price adjustment range of 10-30; and 12 have been stable.
Some coke enterprises in Henan, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rose by 120 yuan / ton.
According to the data of China Steel Network APP:
The price chart of China Steel Mesh APP is as follows:
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Futures steel rose slightly today
Today's thread main futures rose 69 to close at 4519, up 1.55%; hot coil main rose 59, close at 4616, up 1.29%; coking coal main rose 90, closing at 2327, up 4.02%; coke main up 92 to close at 3168.5, up 2.99%; iron ore main up 27 to close at 713.5, up 3.93%.
Weekend steel price forecast
From the perspective of national fixed asset investment from January to November, the country's investment in infrastructure has increased unabated, and it can also be learned from the just-concluded central economic forum that infrastructure construction in 2022 may be released in advance. The vigorous development of infrastructure can fill the gap in the real estate industry to a certain extent, increase the procurement of raw materials, and drive steel demand for a long time. However, near the end of the year, the demand for the construction industry is generally not high, coupled with the cold current, there are strong winds, rain and snow in many areas, which further inhibits the demand for steel in production and manufacturing. Therefore, it is expected that short-term steel prices will rise slightly and narrow.