On the 16th, in Tehran, Iran, Supporters of Lacey held up signs at the rally. (Image source: Associated Press)
The chairman of the Iranian Presidential Election Commission announced the preliminary statistical results of Iran's 13th presidential election on the 19th. Preliminary statistics show that Iran's judicial director, Ibrahim Lahi, won the election.
Lacey won iran's presidential election
According to Iranian state television reported on the 19th local time, preliminary statistics show that Iranian judicial director Ibrahim Lacey won 17.8 million votes, with a vote rate of about 62%. Russia Today said Lacey won the 2021 Iranian presidential election.
Iran's 13th presidential election began on the morning of the 18th local time and lasted until the early morning of the 19th. Four candidates are vying for the presidency, namely Iran's Judicial Director Lasi, former Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Muhsin Rezai, First Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Amir Hussein Gajizadh Al-Hashemi, and Governor of Iran's Central Bank Hematy. Lacey has no real opponent and has been leading the polls.
Lacey, 60, joined iran's judicial system in the 1980s and has held a number of senior judicial positions, serving as Iran's attorney general in 2014 and Iran's judicial director in 2019. Lacey ran for the presidency in 2017, but ultimately lost to Rouhani. He is a loyal follower of Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei.
Iran's politics will shift to hardliners
This is Iran's 13th presidential election since its founding in 1979, and although it is considered to be a "formality", it is still significant for Iran, which is in the midst of internal and external difficulties.
Iran's current Supreme Leader, Khamenei, is 82 years old. The analysis believes that it is very likely that Lacey will take over the position of supreme leader of Khamenei in the future.
According to the Associated Press, incumbent President Rouhani is a representative of moderate conservatives, but Lacey belongs to the hardliners. During his campaign, he stressed that a strong government would be established in the future to fight corruption and solve Iran's economic problems.
This election was almost always the domain of hardliners, in part because Rouhani's moderate policies, including easing relations with the West and voluntarily limiting nuclear capabilities in exchange for lifting sanctions, did not have the desired effect. So Iranian support for Rouhani's government and for moderates is declining.
Yin Gang, a researcher at the Institute of West Asia and Africa of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in the current bankruptcy of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the stalemate in Iranian-US relations, Khamenei believes that it is no longer suitable for moderates to continue to govern, and more tough candidates are needed to take office, so Iran's policy will change in the direction of hardliners in the future.
The U.S.-Iran-Iran nuclear negotiations may be in crisis again
The change of regime in Iran, the most concerning is the ongoing US-Iran-Iran nuclear negotiations.
As of now, the united States and Iran-Africa direct negotiations have entered the sixth round. According to Reuters, on June 17, local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Araghi said that the Vienna negotiations have made real progress and are now closer than ever to resuming the Iranian nuclear agreement, but there are still some key issues to be resolved through negotiations. He also said the outcome of the election would not affect the negotiation process.
According to Al Jazeera, Lacey recently said during a televised debate that he would "respect the JCPOA" and establish a "strong" government.
"After the new Iranian government comes to power, it will still take the resumption of the agreement and the lifting of sanctions as the core goal." Yin Gang pointed out that after the new Iranian government came to power, the most important thing is to deal with the relationship with the United States, if the Iranian nuclear agreement cannot be restored in the end, then it is not ruled out that serious conflicts will break out.
The situation in the Middle East may be affected
In addition to the Iranian nuclear issue, after the hard-line government takes office, the US-Iran relationship may be more confrontational, thus affecting the situation in the Middle East.
Tian Wenlin, a professor at the School of International Relations at Chinese University and executive director of the China Middle East Society, said that the rise of Iranian hardliners is not good news for the United States and Israel. Because Iran is likely to adopt a tougher, more aggressive policy in regional affairs, especially to intensify the confrontation between the United States and Israel. But for other Arab countries, Iran will still focus on unity and try to win as much as possible.
"The contradictions in the Middle East region are involved in the whole body, and the intensification of confrontation between Iran and the United States and Israel may, to some extent, lead to the development of the situation in the entire Middle East region in a more tense direction, and even do not rule out that some more serious conflicts will break out." Tian Wenlin said. (End)