India is rapidly becoming the world's new virus center. On 30 August, the country set a global record for the largest number of new cases in a single day, at 78,761. Experts predict that India will soon overtake Brazil and eventually the United States to become the country with the worst outbreak in the world.
According to the Bloomberg News website reported on August 31, according to the current development trajectory, india's epidemic severity will surpass Brazil in about a week and the United States in about two months.
Unlike the United States and Brazil, infections in India are still accelerating seven months after India reported its first case on January 30. After sweeping through densely populated cities, the virus is just beginning to infiltrate the vast rural hinterland where most of India's 1.3 billion people live.
Naman Shah, a part-time employee at India's National Institute of Epidemiology, said India, as the world's second most populous country and country with a relatively poor public health system, will inevitably become the world's largest outbreak site.
"That will be to be expected, no matter what India does." Shah, a member of the Indian government's covid-19 task force, said.
From the Philippines to Peru, the novel coronavirus poses a unique problem for poor countries: densely populated slums there provide ideal conditions for the spread of the virus, and their economic instability means that the lockdown necessary to control the virus is intolerable.
The woes of the developing world are most pronounced in India, where the ambitious nationwide lockdown imposed in March was lifted two months later after unemployment, hunger and large numbers of workers leaving the city on foot overwhelmed the country.
Antibody studies conducted in the capital, New Delhi and other cities, show that the number of people who have been infected with the virus is 40 to 200 times the number of official cases, and the true scale of the outbreak in India is likely to be much larger than the 3.6 million reported infections.
We have every reason to believe that the coronavirus in India is still just emerging. India's coronavirus burden has so far fallen largely on big cities connected to the globe, such as New Delhi and Mumbai, but the disease is now beginning to shift to its rural hinterland, where nearly 900 million people live and health infrastructure is scarce. The lack of testing and medical assistance is likely to mean that a large number of infections and deaths cannot be confirmed.
The positivity rate is worth vigilance
According to the Hindustan Times website reported on August 31, according to the statistics of the Hindustan Times, a total of 80,097 new cases of infection were reported across India on August 30. After reporting the highest number of new cases in a single day in the world on August 30, the 7-day average of new cases in India reached about 73,000, which also set a new global record and exceeded the peak of the 7-day average in the United States. The peak of this average in the United States occurred in the week ending July 25, when the figure was about 69,000.
In Delhi, as the daily number of infections continues to rebound, the number of new cases in a single day has exceeded the 2,000 mark again after more than 50 days. Delhi's positive rate for COVID-19 also continues to rise. Of all tests performed in the past week, 8.7 percent tested positive, indicating that more and more Delhi residents are now carrying the virus.
Delhi reported 2,024 new confirmed cases on August 30, the highest single-day increase since July 10, with a cumulative total of more than 170,000 confirmed cases.
Lalit Kant, former head of the Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases Unit at the Indian Council of Medical Research, said: "The increasingly high positive rate means that the spread of this infectious disease is intensifying in the city. And, as we liberalize the economy and the subway, the positivity rate is likely to increase further. We need to continue to implement testing, tracing and treatment strategies to contain the outbreak. We also need to identify cases requiring intensive care as early as possible to prevent case deaths. ”
Zhugar Kishore, head of the community medicine department at Safdar Zhongge Hospital, said: "Yes, the number of cases reported every day is increasing, but this is not alarming because we are not reporting as many hospitalizations and deaths as in June. In addition, the Government is well prepared and the infrastructure is in place. ”
Citing data from delhi's second round of serum antibody testing, Kishore said: "I don't think there will be a second surge in cases like in June. Nearly 30% of people in Delhi already have antibodies. ”
A police officer (first from right) checks commuters' passes in the Indian city of Amritsar on August 29 in accordance with epidemic prevention measures. (AFP)
Source: Reference News Network