Recently, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated dramatically. The latest news is that the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a notice urging Chinese citizens in Afghanistan to leave the country as soon as possible if necessary.
Qatar's Al Jazeera tv commented that the current situation in Afghanistan is "the same as it was before the Taliban seized power in the 1990s.".
What the hell is going on in Afghanistan?
Afghan security personnel investigate the site of an explosion in Kabul on 12 June. Source: Xinhua News Agency
Let's start with the overall situation.
With the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, the security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated. Clashes between the Taliban and Afghan government forces have intensified, resulting in numerous civilian casualties.
Five health workers were killed on June 15, at least 23 Afghan special forces servicemen were killed in fierce fighting with the Taliban on June 16, and since May, there have been multiple attacks in Kabul, including one that killed more than 200 people. Afghan government figures showed a terrorism-related death toll of 4,735 in May, up from 1,645 in the same period last year.
Since the U.S. announced its withdrawal from Afghanistan on May 1, the local Taliban have launched a fierce offensive. At present, the Taliban occupy 17 of the 34 provinces in Afghanistan. In Kabul, the most emblematic capital, the Taliban front is just over 20 kilometers from its western suburbs.
After the United States said it withdrew, Australia was the first to announce the closure of its embassy in Afghanistan, citing the inability to "ensure the safety of diplomats." In this case, it is normal for the Chinese embassy to advise Chinese citizens to leave as much as possible.
To get back to the roots, today's turmoil in Afghanistan is directly linked to U.S. military expansion.
In October 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban regime, and the Taliban organization suffered a major blow. But since 2004, the Taliban have re-emerged, posing a huge threat to the Afghan government and dragging the United States deep into the mire of war.
U.S. Department of Defense data shows that more than $2 trillion has been spent on the war in Afghanistan. More than 2,400 U.S. soldiers were killed and more than 20,000 wounded in the 20-year war. According to Boston University's Cost of War program, the war in Afghanistan has killed about 241,000 people since 2001, including more than 71,000 civilians.
Such a heavy burden, of course, the White House wants to get rid of it.
In February 2020, the Trump administration signed an agreement with the Taliban that U.S. troops and NATO forces in Afghanistan would be withdrawn in phases, while the current U.S. administration postponed the withdrawal of U.S. troops to September 11.
Pending the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Taliban stepped up their attacks on strategic areas of Afghanistan. In this regard, the leader of the US Department of Defense has warned the US authorities that among the consequences of a completely unconditional withdrawal of troops is the risk of the resurgence of organizations such as "al-Qaida" in the next few years.
On April 15, the Brookings Institution published an article saying that the United States had failed to achieve its goal of defeating the Taliban. The Taliban are on the verge of becoming the most powerful political force in Afghanistan and a strong participant in the future Afghan government. With the complete withdrawal of foreign troops, the ongoing Afghan civil war could turn into a bloodier and longer war for how long no one knows.
U.S. troops in Afghanistan patrol in Afghanistan on December 16, 2003 (Source: Xinhua News Agency)
Why do all parties have no confidence in stability in Afghanistan?
As former Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said, the U.S. war in Afghanistan and its 20-year military presence in Afghanistan have not brought stability to the region, but have instead placed Afghanistan in "total humiliation and disaster, ravaged by war."
When the United States invaded Afghanistan, the slogan was to "bring democracy and freedom to Afghanistan and start a new life." But in reality? On June 4, the U.S. State Department issued a statement saying it would give $266 million in new humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, bringing the total amount of such aid to nearly $3.9 billion since 2002.
In 20 years, the war cost $2 trillion, and the aid was only $3.9 billion, and the gap is not generally large. The United States has slapped its ass and left, but what about the Afghans who believed in the Promise of the United States?
Looking back at history, we know that according to Afghanistan's unique social state and cultural identity, those who cooperate with foreign forces have not had a good ending.
In the 19th century, the British invaded Afghanistan and forcibly propped up the former King Emir Shuadang. As soon as the British army was defeated, Shu'a's rule immediately collapsed and he himself was killed;
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the last century and fostered the Najibura regime. After the soviet withdrawal in 1989, the Najibra regime collapsed in 1992 and he himself had to flee to the United Nations office in Kabul for refuge. Four years later, the Taliban stormed Kabul and the first thing they did was drag Najibra out of the office and hang himself from a street lamppost.
Now that the "foreign forces" have become the United States, what will be the end?
The reality is harsh. Recent news reports suggest that when the Taliban surrounded government strongholds, government troops immediately surrendered in droves as long as they were guaranteed personal safety and freedom to return home to government soldiers. What about those who do not surrender? In a battle in Fabria Province, a 50-man detachment of Afghan government forces special forces was killed in isolation. An Afghan mp asked angrily: "How can a detachment be sent to an area 100% controlled by the Taliban?" ”
Sources say the Taliban now control at least 40 percent of Afghanistan's territory, and many provincial capitals are "sitting in distress," as it was before the seizure of power.
Afghan security forces (Source: Xinhua)
Historically, Afghanistan has been known as the "graveyard of empires" and the "graveyard of great powers" – the foreign powers that rule Afghanistan are always mired in war, ultimately dragging down the country. This was true of Britain in the 19th century and the Soviet Union in the 20th century.
After the withdrawal of soviet troops that year, the Taliban organized a sudden rise. At the beginning of its existence, the Taliban had a total of 800 people, but they held high the banner of "eradicating warlords and rebuilding the country", put forward anti-corruption and commercial restoration, coupled with strict discipline and bravery, and won the support of Afghan civilians, and soon developed into a team of nearly 30,000 people, hundreds of tanks and dozens of jet fighters. From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban established a national regime in Afghanistan, known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
In 2001, when U.S. troops invaded Afghanistan, the Taliban were seriously injured and then moved to the mountains to insist on guerrilla warfare. Large U.S. troops are stationed in large cities and are mechanized, and once they enter the mountains, they are stretched thin. As a result, the Taliban have been repeatedly suppressed, and the United States has become another superpower after Britain and the Soviet Union, which is deeply mired in Afghanistan.
But in the final analysis, this is the result of the United States' self-inflicted suffering. Rushing forward, only breaking through, and deciding to retreat when it finds it difficult to end, leaving a huge power vacuum – this situation is also playing out in Iraq.
As for the motive of the Us invasion of Afghanistan, it was said that "counter-terrorism is needed", but from a strategic point of view, I am afraid that it is also aimed at China and Russia. Of course, now the United States has to withdraw no matter how big the pit it has dug, or because its eyes are only on China and Russia.
From squeezing to containment, it is a portrayal of the decline of the United States on a global scale. But unfortunately, the cost of this shift is thrown at American taxpayers and Afghans.
For Afghanistan, the U.S. invasion has caused the suffering of innocent people and now faces the threat of civil war. In the first quarter of this year, civilian casualties in Afghanistan increased by 29 percent compared to last year, with women 37 percent and child casualties increasing by 23 percent, according to United Nations data.
The World Bank notes that the poverty rate in Afghanistan could rise from 50 percent to more than 70 percent due to conflict, severe third-wave COVID-19, drought, weak social mechanisms, and other factors.
Today, Afghanistan is once again on the brink of crisis. Lyons, special representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan, said bluntly: "There is little time left to prevent the worst in Afghanistan." Afghanistan has only one acceptable direction: away from the battlefield and back to negotiations. ”
Text/Senri Rock
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