The Chinese market is favored Diversification strategies are preferable

Recently, a number of financial institutions have made outlooks on the economic situation in 2022 and given analysis and suggestions for specific areas. The "Economic Reference News" reporter combed and found that in the context of slowing global economic growth, most institutions believe that the market will face many uncertainties in 2022, global investors need to face the challenge of seeking returns next year, equity assets are optimistic about many institutional investors, investors can also choose more diversified investment strategies, as well as increase attention to alternative assets. At the same time, the Chinese market is still generally optimistic about institutions.

The global economy will slowly recover

In an environment of slowing global economic growth, the market will face many uncertainties in 2022. Based on the analysis of various institutions, "economic growth" and "global central bank monetary policy shift" have become the focus of attention of industry insiders.

In view of the prospects for next year's global economic recovery, Vanguard expects that the economy will continue to recover in 2022, but the pace will naturally slow down.

Deloitte China Chief Economist Xu Sitao said, "Despite some risk events in the past two quarters, we remain optimistic about next year's economy. Economic growth in Asia may be widening the gap, but at the same time, the variety of treatment options increases as vaccination rates continue to rise. Overall, the impact of COVID-19 is expected to fade away. ”

Fidelity International said the direction of the global economy in 2022 will depend on key decisions made by policymakers around the world, and major central banks need to deal with inflation.

Nick Samouilhan, multi-asset strategist and portfolio manager at Wellington Investment Management, said, "We expect 2022 to be a year of transformation, with the focus shifting from COVID-19 to economic growth and central bank responses. We believe that the economy will continue to recover. ”

However, central banks may not be synchronized in monetary policy. Pictet Wealth Management expects the Fed to accelerate the scaling back of its asset purchase program and start raising interest rates in June, but the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will not raise rates. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME, said that even if the Fed starts to scale back asset purchases and consider raising interest rates, China still has the potential to cut its reserve requirement ratio further.

Equity assets are bullish

Industry insiders said that given that interest rates remain low, global investors will need to continue to face the challenge of seeking yields next year.

Equity assets are optimistic about many institutional investors. Nick Samuehan said he tends to increase his holdings of global equities in a modest manner relative to bonds. "We focus on value-oriented or high-quality companies in cyclical industries. Continue to be bullish on the energy and financial sectors, favoring cyclical stocks such as materials and some industrial sectors. He said.

Swiss Pictet Wealth Management said it upgraded its US stock rating to neutral and European stocks to over-allocate, and still maintained an over-allocation of Japanese stocks to diversify its stock portfolio.

Many industry insiders also suggest that investors can choose a more diversified investment strategy, such as increasing the focus on alternative assets. Pictet Wealth Management believes that it is optimistic about physical assets, private equity and hedge fund solutions when it comes to alternative investments.

Fidelity International believes that the importance of climate factors for asset allocation has increased this year, and this trend is expected to accelerate in 2022. Private equity markets can continue to offer alternative investment opportunities with growth potential for long-term investors, especially as "brown" assets move to "green" assets.

Nicole Goldberger, head of growth diversified asset portfolio at UBS Asset Management, said investors should also consider investing in commodities through direct investments as well as indirectly through energy stocks.

We can pay attention to new energy, consumption and other industries

Although the global market will face many uncertainties in 2022, the Chinese market is still generally optimistic about institutions. A number of institutions expect that the trend of foreign capital inflows into China's stock market and bond market will continue next year, and hot industries such as high-tech and new energy will still be favored.

"The reason why foreign investors choose Chinese bonds as investment products is because the correlation between Chinese government bonds and the government bonds of other developed countries is less than 0.3%, and such a low correlation is very suitable for asset allocation to diversify risks." In addition, China's bond market has reached $30 trillion, and investors are willing to choose such a large bond market for diversified varieties to invest. Li Huihuan, Acting Director of Global Marketing and Head of Market Treasury at Hang Seng China, said.

Li Huihuan expects that china's bond market will have profit opportunities next year, based on the overall direction of the central bank's prudent monetary policy, it is expected that the bond market as a whole will be dominated by low-volatility interest rate trends.

In terms of the stock market, Miao Zimei, director of Asian equity investment at Fidelity International, said that for long-term investors, 2022 is a good time to start investing in China's stock market. Investors can focus on industries that are closely related to China's next phase of economic development, such as high-end manufacturing, renewable energy, electric vehicles, software, mass consumption, and next-generation healthcare.

Li Yili, investment director of Wellington Investment Management, is optimistic about the consumption upgrade, Internet and localization of the A-share market, which have three promising areas. "China has long been a leader in the global digital economy. In the long run, we believe that the business model of China's Internet industry is still worth paying attention to. In addition, the implementation of the "double carbon" goal has also brought some investment opportunities related to ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance), and renewable energy and natural gas suppliers will benefit from this transition.

Author: □ reporter Zhang Mo Wang Zixu reported in Beijing

Source: Economic Reference