At 12:00 on December 12, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, released the top ten predictions for 2022, which is the fourth time since 2019 that Yang Delong has issued the top ten predictions. At the same time, Yang Delong is also the winner of 2 Golden Bull Awards and 1 Star Fund Award, the representative work is Qianhai Open Source Clean Energy Mix, let's first take a look at how this fund is trending.
3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2, 3, 5 years of performance is not particularly excellent, carefully look at the change of fund managers, Yang Delong is march 18 this year to take over this fund, after taking over the fund net value increased steadily, the maximum drawdown of 5.93%, low volatility, very cost-effective.
Let's take a look at the top ten prophecies again, and you will compare the success rate of the prophecies yourself.
I. Top Ten Prophecies for 2019
1. The Sino-US trade friction that affects the market in 2018 may have a positive result this year.
2. In terms of economic growth, China's economy will complete the bottom in 2019 and rebound slightly. Consumption remains an important investment direction in 2019.
3. Real estate regulation is expected to show certain signs of relaxation.
4. Foreign capital will continue to accelerate its inflow into the A-share market. It is estimated that the amount of foreign capital inflows into A-shares will exceed 400 billion yuan in 2019.
5. In terms of monetary policy, a loose monetary policy will be adopted in 2019.
6. In terms of fiscal policy, fiscal policy will be more active in 2019, and a prominent highlight is the substantial reduction and fee reduction.
7. In the first half of this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange may officially set up the Science and Technology Innovation Board and implement the registration system.
8. Overseas markets expect U.S. stocks to adjust downward in 2019. In 2019, there will be a combination of "US stocks down, A shares up".
9. Emerging markets, including A-shares, will experience a recovery rally.
10. The A-share market is expected to rebound above 3,000 points. Consumer white horse stocks and technology leading stocks are still the two main investment directions, which will provide investors with certain investment opportunities.
2. Top 10 Prophecies for 2020
1. Substantive progress has been made in Sino-US trade negotiations and the signing of textual agreements;
2. China's economic growth rate has stabilized, economic transformation and industrial upgrading have continued to advance, the service industry has developed rapidly, and the manufacturing industry has picked up;
3. All long-term funds continue to increase their positions in A-shares, and the incremental funds exceed 1 trillion yuan;
4. Foreign capital continues to accelerate its inflow into the A-share market, with an annual inflow of about 300 billion yuan;
5. The central bank adopts a loose monetary policy and increases credit support for enterprises;
6. Fiscal policy will be more active, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will accelerate, and taxes and fee reductions will continue;
7. Market differentiation continues, continue to be optimistic about the three major directions of consumption, finance and technology, and continue to marginalize poor performance stocks and theme stocks;
8. First-tier blue-chip stocks continue to reach new highs, and second-tier blue-chip stocks usher in trend opportunities;
9. It is expected that the US stock market will meet the top and fall in 2020;
10. A shares continued the slow bull and long bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,000 points, up about 20% year-on-year.
3. Top 10 Prophecies for 2021
1. With the successful research and development of the new crown vaccine and the gradual promotion of injections, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has been effectively controlled, and the global economy has entered the recovery track;
2. China's GDP has rebounded to more than 8%, and economic transformation and industrial upgrading have continued to advance;
3. All long-term funds continue to increase their positions in A-shares, a large number of residents' savings continue to accelerate their entry through public funds, and the sales of equity funds continue to be hot;
4. Foreign capital continued to flow into the A-share market, with an annual inflow of about 300 billion yuan;
5. With the economic recovery, loose monetary policy will gradually withdraw, but it will not be excessively tightened, and stable growth is still an important policy goal of the central bank.
6. Fiscal policy will be more active, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will accelerate, and tax and fee reductions will continue.
7. The characteristics of market differentiation are more obvious, and the white dragon horse stocks in the three directions of consumption, securities companies and technology continue to be optimistic, and the performance stocks and theme stocks continue to be marginalized.
8. Value investment has gradually penetrated the hearts of the people and become the most mainstream investment concept.
9, the Fed's water release efforts have decreased, the US stock market has rushed up and fallen, and the high level has fluctuated.
10. A shares have entered the third year of the "Golden Decade", continuing the slow bull and long bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise by about 10%-20%.
4. Top Ten Prophecies for 2022
1. The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has improved, demand has picked up, and the global economy has continued to recover;
2. China's economic transformation and industrial upgrading continue to advance, and the GDP growth rate has fallen back to about 6%;
3. A large number of residents' savings continue to accelerate their entry through funds or direct account openings, bringing a steady stream of incremental funds to A-shares;
4. Foreign capital continues to flow into A-share high-quality leading stocks, with an annual inflow of about 300 billion yuan;
5. With the slowdown of economic recovery and the neutral and loose monetary policy, stable growth is an important policy goal of the central bank;
6. Fiscal policy will be more active, and policies to stimulate consumption will be introduced one after another;
7. The market differentiation is obvious, optimistic about the three major directions of consumption, new energy and science and technology Internet, white dragon horse stocks, bearish cycle stocks and theme stocks;
8. Value investment has gradually penetrated the hearts of the people, and high-quality leading stocks have risen steadily, once again becoming the key varieties of capital allocation;
9. The Federal Reserve gradually reduces the scale of bond purchases, and opens the interest rate hike mode in the second half of 2022, and the risk of US stocks peaking increases;
10. The structural market of A shares continues to continue, the effect of making money is improved, and the Shanghai Composite Index continues to expand upwards.
Other accuracy, I don't know, but this year is the fourth time to predict the top of the US stock market, the first three times have failed, but there is no embarrassment, after all, there are more people who predict the decline of the US stock market. I hope that Yang Delong's prediction this year can come true, otherwise next year we will have to predict that the US stock market will peak, but the time distance from the success of the prediction is shortened by another year.
This article is original by Yang Qinghua teacher statement, thank you for forwarding, thank you for the like!