"With spare money in hand, buying a house is the best investment!"
This is something that almost every real estate agent says to a customer.
However, is buying a house really the best investment? Without the value of the residence, what is the potential for the appreciation of the house? Everyone is rushing to buy a house, will everyone be a winner? How do capitalists use houses to circle money?
……
The United States and Japan have given us the best answers to these questions with blood and tears.
The prosperity of Japan's real estate market began with the famous Plaza Accord.
The story is simple: after the war, Japan rose rapidly with the help of the United States and its own efforts to become strong, and has threatened the hegemony of the United States.
In contrast, in the United States, due to the impact of the oil crisis, energy prices have risen sharply, inflation is serious, the Fed has to raise interest rates to cope with inflation, but the continuous increase in interest rates has led to domestic lifelessness, which is not a good approach.
Planned for a long time, the United States designed a "Plaza Accord" plan, soft and hard to force the yen to appreciate artificially, the dollar depreciation, in order to save the U.S. economy.
Sure enough, the Plaza Accord had just been signed, and the dollar-yen exchange rate began to fall continuously, and in September 1986, only 153 yen could be exchanged for 1 dollar.
The United States is temporarily quiet through the years of crisis, but Japan has begun a nightmare.
The yen appreciated, the cost of export trade increased, a lot of money entered the domestic market, and there was a lot of money in the banks. In order to stimulate the export trade due to the crisis of appreciation, the Japanese government has continuously reduced interest rates, reduced the difficulty of corporate loans, and re-active a large number of funds in the market.
Banks want to profit from lending, and governments want to stimulate the economy with loose monetary policy, and the threshold for lending is getting lower and lower. As we all know, loans need to be mortgaged, and in Japan at that time, you could borrow a large amount of money as long as you had a job and a place to live, or a bit of unknown land.
It is said that a police booth on a high street in Tokyo was mortgaged by more than a dozen people as personal belongings, and the singer Chiyomio even borrowed 270 billion yen in his own name.
The result of the bank's crazy lending is that the market is flooded with a lot of money, and the funds quickly pour into the real estate market, driving the real estate industry forward and pushing up house prices.
Take the aforementioned Qian Changfu as an example, he relied on the loan he applied for to invest in hotels and golf courses, and made a lot of money.
Land prices in Japan have also been pushed up, with Ginza rising 40 percent in a single year in 1987, while tokyo house prices rose 53 percent. There is a law in the real estate industry, the more people who buy houses at a higher price are more urgent, and they are worried that if they don't buy now, they will rise, but everyone who has some income will buy a house.
Banks and real estate developers are complicit in self-directing, not only using the media to promote the benefits of investing in real estate, but also hiring some unemployed vagrants to pretend to be people lining up to buy houses to create a scene where a house is difficult to find.
Japanese real estate has been blown up like a bubble, the yen is valuable in the international community, and Japanese people with multiple properties have become seemingly "rich". Mitsubishi even spent 200 billion yen to buy the Rockefeller Building in New York and planted the Japanese flag.
In this vigorous real estate radical movement, every Japanese person has "floated", they firmly believe that Japan is the richest country in the world, otherwise how can they plant the national flag in New York, the United States.
In a round of cycles, Tokyo, Japan, has become the most expensive city in the world, all the funds in the Japanese domestic market have flowed to real estate, and every ordinary person is saddled with loans for two or three houses.
What is the result, capital flows into the real estate industry, industrial development is almost stagnant, house slaves think about how to pay off the next day's mortgage every day, have no intention of consuming shopping, and the Japanese national economy is depressed except for a real estate bubble that may burst at any time.
The Japanese government is aware of the seriousness of the situation and has made great efforts to raise interest rates one after another to tighten the policy, which has directly pierced the housing bubble.
Land prices plummeted in an instant, the original price of 100 million yen house fell to 45 million overnight, those who want to become rich through the house dream of disillusionment, high loans make their lives into difficulties, some people in despair jumped off the building to commit suicide.
Like dominoes, Japan's national economy has since been in a slump, with unemployed labor, industry, and sluggish consumption... Young Japanese people have become low-desired homemakers, dead.
Later, that unforgettable experience was called Japan's "decade of disappearance" and "decade of regression", and it is still chilling to mention it now.
The seemingly invincible American Empire is a constant general, not necessarily, not a few years after the Japanese housing bubble, a bigger crisis sprouted in the United States.
When it comes to real estate in the United States, the role of "three beauty" in it should not be underestimated. They are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae, Geely Mae.
During the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930s, the Roosevelt administration established Fannie Mae, whose main business was to provide loans to commercial banks to ensure that people had housing.
With the passage of time, Fannie Mae continued to grow and always seek innovation, so in the 1960s, some traditional mortgage businesses such as providing government guaranteed loans for veterans and farmers were divided, which gave birth to Geely Mae.
By the 1970s, in order to prevent Fannie Mae's monopoly on the market, the government established Freddie Mac. At this point, Sanmei was formed. Although the names are different, the basic function is to issue loans as a bridge between commercial banks, real estate developers, and ordinary home buyers.
Next, Sanmei staged a big drama of cutting leeks.
Since the signing of the aforementioned Plaza Accord, Japan has suffered, the United States has trotted easily and happily on the road to rejuvenating the country through science and technology, and the stock market has soared. Investors are confident and full of red light.
In 2000, the Internet bubble exploded, the US stock market then plummeted, the bubble blew up the economy, which showed its original shape, and the Bush administration reached the point where public resentment boiled over.
How to calm the public anger, the consistent practice of the United States is to find a good bully and a small country with abundant energy to launch a war and divert contradictions. The contradictions have shifted, but how to boost the US economy, the George W. Bush administration thought of the real estate industry, and the Three United States quickly plotted a plan of "living in the house".
In short, our people must improve their lives, buy a house without a house, live in a small house for a big house, live in a big house for a villa, only one house upgrade to buy two sets, while providing low-interest loans for the people, as long as you buy a house willing to buy a house, you don't have to worry about no money to pay.
Under the call of the government, major commercial banks and real estate developers have done their best to incite the purchase of houses, "Buying a house is the best investment!" "Successful people have at least two suites!" "The house is the best asset you have left for future generations!" ","Luxury residence with zero down payment and bag"...
Banks, real estate developers and the media work together to create momentum, and the three united states that guarantee loans work together to provide policy support, and ordinary people can withstand this kind of seduction and flock to buy houses.
Among the people who buy houses are decent executives, business people with spare money, ordinary workers, and even unemployed vagrants, financial institutions classify these people, and their loans are high-quality mortgages, subprime mortgages and subprime mortgages.
The Fed cut interest rates 13 times in a row, the major banks tried their best to find customer loans, wave after wave of operations, the real estate bubble in the United States is getting bigger and bigger, just like Japan in the past, everyone has a property with a very high nominal value, and endless daydreams.
Banks lend money without considering their ability to repay, and they have piles of residential mortgage contracts in their hands, even to the point where they have no money to lend.
As mentioned earlier, Geely Mae mainly provides stable loan guarantee business, but Freddie Mae and Fannie Mae are constantly engaged in business innovation, so they have come to a trick "real estate securitization" riot operation.
To put it bluntly, it is the second U.S. land price to buy a large number of IOUs and contracts in the hands of banks, and then earn some fees and then package them into financial bonds for exile on the market, those who are optimistic about the real estate industry and those who do not have a house but want to earn some dividends through real estate come to buy bonds. This kind of bond is called MBS, which is a mortgage-backed bond.
MBS is not enough to sell, they also put out a CDO, the mortgage contract is infinitely subdivided and then combined with those car loans, unknown corporate bonds and other messy debts into a hybrid bond, that is, a guaranteed debt certificate.
There are too many people who want to get rich, the income of MBS and CDO once far exceeded the interest rate of the bank, and the two United States and major companies speculated hotly.
But one thing that cannot be forgotten is that even if these financial bonds are packaged beautifully, their income comes from the monthly repayment of the mortgage lenders at the beginning, and once the repayment link is broken, the whole chain collapses.
Capitalists know better than anyone that in order to be able to retreat from the whole body, they have created CDS, that is, credit default swaps.
It's like an insurance policy, they're betting on U.S. house prices, and if house prices don't fall, they pay premiums to the insurance company, and if the house price falls, the insurance company loses money.
Those who hold MBS and CDOs have come to buy CDS as insurance for their bonds, and a lot of money has begun to buy CDS, only to be able to earn high premiums when U.S. house prices fall.
Sure enough, the U.S. real estate bubble soon burst, in order to maintain economic stability, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times, the money flowing into the real estate market is getting less and less, and house prices do not rise but fall.
One link after another, the chain carefully arranged by the capitalists began to crack, more and more buyers could not repay the loan, a large number of defaults appeared, the capitalists who held CDS had enough to eat, and the ordinary people suffered.
That was the year in which the infamous subprime mortgage crisis in American history broke out, stirring up a thousand waves and affecting the whole world. Those who blindly buy houses without considering their personal abilities have become nothing, some have become unemployed vagrants, and countless people have been displaced.
Looking at the housing bubble events in the history of Japan and the United States, it is not difficult to find that the layout is a shrewd vested interest, and the people who enter the game and lose their wealth are ordinary people with hot heads.
A certain degree of stimulation of real estate development can drive economic growth, but everything is too late, if all the funds flow to real estate, everyone goes to become a house slave, then how to develop other industries? What else can I afford to spend?
Some people may say that I just want to speculate in the house, the right time to immediately make a profit, but who can guarantee that I am not the last stick, the house in the hand can not make money and is firmly tied up.
Moreover, just like the layout of the American Sanmei, once the shrewd capitalists try their best to skillfully cut the leeks, the ordinary people who are fooled into it become lambs to be slaughtered, just as the so-called artificial knife tricks me into fish meat, and when the capitalists close the net, it is the day when those people are ruined.
Therefore, this is why our country has always adhered to the policy of "housing and not speculation", insisted on guiding the benign development of the real estate industry, and could not let the house leave the residential attributes. The lessons of other countries have long sounded the alarm for the development of real estate.
In a word, there will be no pie in the sky, no matter how big the bubble will burst, the house is used to live!
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Author: Heart to Wu Tong