The liquor sector danced with the market on Friday, and the increase was in the front, and the majority of liquor investors could drink again. The recent trend of liquor seems to have vaguely returned to last year's wave of "liquor yyds" market, and what remains unchanged is that I am still a spectator.
Coincidentally, this Tuesday, I saw the advertisement of Shanghai expensive wine at the high-speed rail station, with the perspective of investment research, searched for the rock shares of the listed company, and the result was to give me a limit on the same day, which really scared me, taking advantage of the recent liquor market is not bad, today also talk to everyone about liquor, to friends who do not understand liquor to popularize liquor knowledge ~
"There is no foam in the liquor, there is beer in the bubble"
Remember that since the beginning of this year, the stock market has entered the carnival climax of liquor, when liquor rose to drunkenness and dreaming of death, and the group of shareholders and friends who weighed in liquor made a lot of money as long as you dared to take it. Especially Moutai Big Brother rushed with the big guys! But it did rise too outrageously, and more and more Xiaobai also joined the hype of liquor, when I was also observing as a wealth manager, during that period, there were colleagues who pushed CSI liquor hundreds of thousands at a high point, but I was more worried, after all, the prosperity and decline, so I have been watching the play. (It is very strange, many investors like to chase up, generally speaking, the market is better on the day more willing to buy a lot, in fact, this is not right, chasing up and killing whether it is stocks or funds and other investment targets are irrational)
The liquor sector is a very favored sector for funds and foreign capital, because it is a high-quality asset, the performance certainty is relatively high, basically the gross profit of liquor stocks is above 60%, which is a very profitable industry, so it is understandable to be welcomed.
However, with the release of a research report by CITIC Securities (the first company I graduated and joined) on February 10, "Three trillion yuan from the beginning, the long slope of thick snow spring wind" issued, the dream refers to 3,000 yuan of "liquor faith" Moutai stopped at 2600 on the first trading day after the End of the Spring Festival holiday, opening the ups and downs of the "de-bubble" mode.
Moutai in Guizhou(600519)
Washing foam is healthier, after all, the valuation at that time was too high. Valuations have just returned to near the median, and valuations are relatively reasonable.
Liquor index (wind)
Speaking of wine-
In fact, wine has been prosperous since ancient times, which is related to "wine culture"; there have always been many opinions about the origin of wine, and there is wine in bronzes unearthed in China. "How to relieve worries, only Du Kang", however, people generally agree that there are three kinds of ape wine, Yi Di wine, and Du Kang wine. The Western Nietzscheean culture of Dionysus said that "when man is mentally drunk, he can break all taboos, lift the shackles of the individual, and integrate man and man, man and nature, and obtain the highest happiness." China is also the first country in the world to use distillation technology to make distilled spirits, six or seven hundred years earlier than Western whisky and brandy.
Regarding drinking, there is also such a saying, Norwegian psychologist Finn Skarsrud has a theory: "People are born with too low blood alcohol content, and when the alcohol concentration reaches 0.05, people are happiest."
Drinking friends, we will drink after the theory support ~
What about liquor?
Baijiu is white, which is the raw materials of sorghum, rice and wheat, fermented with sake koji, and then fermented, distilled, aged, blended and made, also known as shochu, old white dried, burning knife and so on. Among them, the use of Daqu as a saccharification starter is called Daqu wine, the use of Koji as a saccharification agent is Xiaoqu wine, the use of wheat bran (fū) as a medium inoculation of pure aspergillus as a saccharification agent, the use of pure yeast as a fermentation agent produced by the wine, called bran koji wine. Generally speaking, China's sorghum brews the most liquor, and the quality of the wine is good.
Liquor process
Baijiu is a unique liquor in China, and is listed as the world's seven largest distilled spirits alongside brandy, whiskey, vodka, rum, gin (also known as gin), tequila, etc. Here we also popularize other distilled spirits, distilled spirits are also called high alcohol/spirits because of their high alcohol content. Brandy general alcohol content 40-43%, whiskey 40-60%, vodka 40-50%, liquor 35-65%;
Learn how these wines are made so that we have a deeper understanding of how we invest in wine.
Brewing process
The main difference between whiskey, xo and so on is that the raw materials for brewing are different, whiskey and liquor are grain grains, brandy is used in grapes, vodka is generally used potatoes, corn; in the brewing process, Western wine will generally have a barrel process after distillation, so it can be put for a long time and has anti-cyclical properties. Flavors like Scotch whisky are 60-70% sourced from oak barrels. It can be said that the barrel solidifies the value of time, which is also a big difference from China's liquor. The special place of liquor lies in the fermentation of koji with wine, which can be seen in the comparison of the following figure:
Classification of liquor
According to the classification of aroma type, China's liquor can be divided into 12 kinds of fragrant type, sauce flavor type, clear flavor type, rice flavor type, rich tulip type, old white dry flavor type, medicinal flavor type, sesame flavor type, special flavor type, soy sauce type, concurrent fragrance type, and phoenix flavor type, and the first four are more discussed.
Geographical division of liquor
Baijiu is a characteristic of China, according to the geographical distribution can be divided into Four Belts of Suwan, Jinxiang, Chuanqian and Luyu. The aura of famous wines leads the way, Suwan is a large province in liquor production and marketing, and the advantages of aromatic real estate liquor are outstanding; the price of Jinxiang and Xiang provinces is superior to the quantity, and the sub-high-end liquor has its own characteristics; Sichuanqian is a traditional liquor town with strong sauce in the country; Luyu is a major liquor consumption province, and local liquor enterprises are weak.
Among the listed liquor companies, there are currently 19 liquor companies in A-share according to the Shenwan 2021 industry classification; of which Sichuan and Anhui are the most numerous, with four each, followed by two each in Gansu and Jiangsu.
Jiangsu: Present World, Yanghe Shares (Yanghe Daqu Liquor, Yanghe Dunhuang Liquor, Yanghe Sea Blue, Yanghe Dream Blue, Yanghe Dream Blue Collector's Edition, Yanghe Sky Blue);
Anhui: Kouzijiao (Kouzifang Liquor, Kouzijiao Liquor, Kouzi Liquor, Laokouzi Liquor), Yingchao Tribute Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor (Royal Golden Seed Liquor, Jianghuai Renjia Liquor, Sun Beer, Five-Star Seed Wanjiafu, Seed Cellar Old Liquor, Seed Liquor, Drunken Three Autumn Liquor), Gujing Tribute Liquor (Light And Elegant Wine Gujing Gong, Gujing Liquor, Gujing Gong Liquor, Gujing Gong Liquor, Gujing Gong Liquor, Gujing Tribute Wine Vintage Pulp, Old Eighty-Six Hundred Wine, Wild Sun Liquor);
Shanxi: Fenjiu (Baiyufen Wine, Dayun Xiangtong, Fuyuan Wine, State Banquet Gift Wine, Golden Shepherd Boy Wine, Rose Fen Wine, Jasmine Dry Red, Shanxi Fen Wine, Shanxi Red Dry Red, Xinghua Village Wine, Xinghua Village Bitter Buckwheat Beer, Yang Jia Jiang Jin Yu Yuan (Strong Fragrance), Yang Jia Jiang Seven Wolves and Eight Tigers (Strong Fragrance), Wild Mountain Wine, Chinese State Guest Wine, Bamboo Leaf Green Wine);
Sichuan: Wuliangye (Century-old shop wine, spring, summer, autumn and winter wine, national treasure Wuliangye, Jianpu wine, Jinliufu gift wine, Two Lakes Spring Wine, LiuyangHe wine, Great Hall of the People State Banquet Wine, King's Style Wine, Wuliang Spring Wine, Wuliang Alcohol Wine, Wuliang Shenjiu, Wuliangye Wine, Modern People's Wine, Yangtze River Delta Wine, Ziguang Liquid Wine), Luzhou Old Cellar (National Cellar 1573, Luzhou Old Cellar, Luzhou Old Wine, ShengShi Tianxiang, Yipinfang, Yongcheng Roasting), Shuijingfang (Chengdu Daqu, Quanxing 520, Quanxing Daqu, Rongshangfang, Shuijingfang Liquor, Tianhao Chen Baijiu, Xingjiu), Shede Liquor (Shede Liquor, Tuopai Daqu, Tuopai Liquor);
Gansu: Jinhui wine, Huangtai liquor (natural liquor, Dingbai liquor, Huangtai liquor, Huangtai dry red wine, Huangtai alcohol, Jiuding Huangtai wine, Liangzhou liquor, Liangzhou dry red wine, Liuding Huangtai liquor, true love liquor);
Hebei: Old White Dry Wine (Hengshui Fuxinglong, Hengshui This Life, Hengshui Old White Dry, Hengshui Old Cellar, Hengshui Eighteen WineRy, Hengshui Jade Jug Ice);
Hunan: drunkard liquor (Dongzang liquor, sealed altar vintage liquor, drunkard liquor, drunkard liquor, drunkard liquor Xiangquan liquor, drunkard old liquor);
Qinghai: Qingqing barley wine (eight workshop series barley wine, mutual aid series barley wine, Tianyoude series barley wine, Yongqinghe series barley wine);
Beijing: Shunxin Agriculture (Huadeng Beijing Mellow Pure Wine, Niulan Mountain Treasures Erguotou);
Xinjiang: Elite (Gold Medal Elite Wine, Yili Cellar Wine, Yili Laojiao Wine, Elite Liquor, Elite Wild Fruit Wine);
In addition to the listing area, there are also famous sake from other places.
Tianjin: Tianjin wine. It is the only brewing enterprise listed in the national key project in North China and one of the backbone enterprises in China's brewing industry.
Guangdong: Meilu liquid, Feixia liquid, Fengcheng liquid. Among them, Meilu liquid is known as "Guangdong Moutai", it is said that it learned the winemaking technology of Guizhou Moutai Distillery, brewed, and the reputation is very good, but it has now been discontinued.
Henan: Du Kang, Songhe Grain, Baofeng Wine. Luoyang Dukang, considered to be the originator of Chinese winemaking, is the source of Chinese wine, is a famous wine in Chinese history and culture, and is the origin of Chinese wine culture.
After talking about the basic knowledge of liquor, talk about the investment of liquor~
Liquor industry chain
The liquor industry chain can be analyzed from the upstream, middle and lower reaches, the upstream is the raw material industry, and the price of sorghum, rice, wheat these grain prices, midstream manufacturing, including koji, base wine, finished wine, packaging this piece will be handed over to a special packaging company to deal with. Downstream is directly connected to consumers, the greater the demand, and then the enterprise expands in production. The rise of upstream raw materials will be transferred to downstream consumers, and in recent years, grain prices have a rising trend, and the cost of the liquor industry will increase.
Policy aspects
The policy factors of liquor are tight, before because of the problem of consumption tax, the liquor sector has been adjusted, but the consumption tax has not actually landed, and the concern has gradually faded, so the liquor sector has recently warmed up.
Technical
From the technical side, KDJ golden cross, macd red column, trading volume has been put in volume, the moving average is also showing an upward trend, the weekly line is three consecutive yang, the bullish trend is expected to continue, and the pre-holiday market seems to unfold in advance and is expected to continue.
Baijiu demand side
The Q3 financial reports of the listed liquor companies show that the overall income side is stable, and the growth rate of the total revenue is more than 50% of the national sub-high-end liquor year-on-year, which is a bright spot, and the high-end and real estate liquors are unremarkable, so we can focus on the next high liquor brand.
High-end liquor: Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao (referred to as Mao Wulu)
Sub-high-end: (Fenjiu, Drunkard Liquor, Shuijingfang, Shede)
Real Estate Wine: (Yanghe, Gujing Tribute Wine, Present World, Kouzi Cellar, Yingchao Tribute Wine)
The high-end expansion of liquor, the acceleration of sub-high-end reform, we can pay attention to the liquor New Year's Market. Moreover, at the end of the year, there are dealer meetings, disclosure of next year's business plans and peak season stockpiling. Considering the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the epidemic in the past two years, the impact of the epidemic has not been as long as expected, if the epidemic regulation this year is strong, then a wave of returns can stimulate activity and have a positive impact on liquor consumer goods. The profit expectations of institutions for liquor are generally optimistic.
Liquor, although it is said to be an optional consumer product, but with the continuous advancement of the market, as well as the inheritance of liquor culture, coupled with the social and investment attributes of liquor under the current market economy, the investment value of liquor is still available, liquor is the core of consumption, and the long-term trend is still upward.
Finally, let's exchange, what are the liquors in your hometown?