21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Yuan Beijing reported that on the last working day of November, more than 20 banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial Bank, and China Minsheng Bank, issued a total of 28 interbank certificates of deposit with a single term, and the number of interbank certificates of deposit issued with a period exceeding the 9-month, 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month periods. Among them, the reference yield of one-year interbank certificates of deposit of large banks and joint-stock banks is about 2.70%.
Interbank certificates of deposit, driven by liabilities, followed by a record net financing in October, a record high in the past three years. According to Wonder data, as of November 30, the net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit this month was 766.350 billion yuan, with a total issuance amount of 2,418.310 billion yuan and an average issuance interest rate of 2.7367%.
Analysts said that under the pressure of year-end assessment and "opening the red door", commercial banks urgently need to actively alleviate debt and liquidity pressures by issuing interbank certificates of deposit. However, there are also views that the extension of the issuance period of interbank certificates of deposit is not solely for assessment, but more out of the consideration that factors such as credit and bond purchase will occupy a longer term of funds, and commercial banks have the motivation to lock in the cost of medium- and long-term interbank liabilities in advance.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that as early as the middle of November, banks launched the "open red door" activity to absorb deposits through various marketing means, and the impact of banking business on the whole year during the "opening red" period was decisive. At the same time, many small and medium-sized banks disclosed their plans for the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit this year in November, such as Bank of Sichuan, Zhongguancun Bank, Fujian Huatong Bank, etc.
Since last year, the regulatory authorities have successively regulated the interest-paying deposits, structured deposits and interest rates of large certificates of deposit, and the debt pressure on small and medium-sized banks has become increasing.
"From the perspective of the steady expansion of credit, the demand for some banks to actively indebted through the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit is still large." Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that especially for small and medium-sized banks, with the deepening of interest rate marketization, intensified market competition, and changes in the regulatory environment, it has become more and more difficult to collect high-interest deposits and extensive operations in the past.
According to the RMB deposit structure disclosed by the central bank in the third quarter of the monetary policy implementation report, the balance of household deposits and non-financial enterprises increased by 6.8% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, and the year-on-year increase was -1460.1 billion yuan and -3470.5 billion yuan, respectively.
According to central bank data, as of the end of October, the structural deposit balance of commercial banks was 5,596.5 billion yuan, of which the balance of structured deposits of small and medium-sized banks was 3,674.573 billion yuan, and the balance of structured deposits of large banks was 1,921.927 billion yuan, both of which were more than half lower than the peak period in April last year.
"Since the implementation of the self-discipline ceiling of deposit interest rate from the floating multiple of the deposit benchmark interest rate to the increase of points, the optimization of the self-discipline upper limit of deposit interest rate has achieved remarkable results, the competition in the deposit market is more orderly, the long-term deposit interest rate has declined significantly, the term structure of fixed deposits has been optimized, and the distribution of deposits among banks has remained basically stable, which is conducive to stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities." The central bank said in the third quarter monetary policy implementation report.
Judging from the types of banks issuing interbank certificates of deposit in November, the urban commercial banks and shareholding banks of small and medium-sized banks issued the main force, and the urban commercial banks, joint-stock banks, state-owned large banks and rural commercial banks issued 889.970 billion yuan, 903.710 billion yuan, 336.390 billion yuan and 201.780 billion yuan respectively.
It is worth noting that from the perspective of the issuance period of interbank certificates of deposit, the number of one-year interbank certificates of deposit issued is close to 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 50% of the total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit.
"The significant increase in the scale and proportion of long-term interbank certificates of deposit shows that depository institutions have a strong demand for stable funds, which is obviously not to cope with the year-end indicator assessment, but more out of the consideration that factors such as credit and bond purchase will occupy longer-term funds." Ming Ming, deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute, thinks so.
The Research Institute of China Merchants Bank also said that the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit by state-owned large banks bucked the trend and increased quarter by quarter, mainly due to its increased credit to manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises and other fields, and the increase in the active debt gap.
According to the data, in September, October and November, the number of interbank certificates of deposit issued by state-owned large banks was 117.240 billion yuan, 271.800 billion yuan and 336.390 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of loans of large banks in the central bank's credit balance sheet also shows signs of recovery after falling to a low point in April this year, but the trend is not particularly clear.
In addition, Ming Ming said that inflation transmission and the expectation that overseas central banks may tighten monetary policy have made the market worry that there may be upward pressure on interest rates in the future, so commercial banks also tend to issue longer-term interbank certificates of deposit, thereby locking in the cost of medium- and long-term interbank liabilities in advance.
For the interest rate trend after the net financing of interbank certificates of deposit continues to reach new highs, China Merchants Bank Research Institute believes that it is expected that the interest rate of certificates of deposit is expected to show an upward trend from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, but the pace may be slower, and it is unlikely to return to the MLF rate. The re-escalation of the generalized liquidity gap and the weakening of investment demand will have upward pressure on the interest rate of certificates of deposit, but the policy environment of "stable currency" will restrict the upward speed of interest rates of certificates of deposit.
Wind data shows that the cumulative net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit this year has reached 2,489.8 billion yuan. In the next three months, there will be 1,849.170 billion yuan, 1,006.690 billion yuan and 1,138.690 billion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit due.
For more information, please download the 21 Finance APP