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The road to electrification of commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, has not been very smooth, but compared with other automotive products, commercial vehicles are undisputed fuel consumption and carbon emissions, so promoting energy conservation and emission reduction of heavy trucks is not only of great significance, but also has a more immediate effect.
In order to better promote the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks, not long ago, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of the Application of New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Mode" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), officially launched the pilot work of the application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode, it should be noted that in the 11 cities included in the scope of the pilot, there are 3 heavy truck characteristic cities, namely Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou. Through two years of pilot exploration and practice, can these three cities with different characteristics and different emphases provide reference for the large-scale promotion of electric heavy trucks? Can power exchange become a breakthrough and entry point on the road to new energy heavy trucks? "The main driving factor behind the power exchange mode can blow a gust of wind in the field of heavy trucks is the national policy and subsidies." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said bluntly that the replacement of heavy trucks has great promotion and application value in some specific scenarios, but I am afraid it is difficult to become a mainstream product.
A window has been opened for electric heavy trucks
Due to the heavy weight, long operating time and higher carbon emissions of commercial vehicle bicycles, they have become one of the important starting points for achieving the "double carbon" goal. According to statistics, the pollutant emissions of a diesel heavy truck are equivalent to 306 passenger cars, in China, commercial vehicles consume 51% of the gasoline and diesel with 20% of the car ownership; on the other hand, from the perspective of commercial vehicles, electrification also has important significance, according to Li Liguo, executive deputy general manager of the Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Innovation Center, as a production tool of heavy trucks, the fuel consumption cost of the whole life cycle exceeds the price of the car by 3 to 5 times, and the difference between electricity consumption and fuel consumption can form a very good economic foundation. Therefore, the electrification of heavy trucks has better economy.
However, in the past 10 years, the promotion of electric heavy trucks has been slow, and the scale of landing operations has been small. The reason is that the charging mode is obvious, including long charging time, short operating time, short driving range, etc., an ordinary heavy truck can only travel two or three hundred kilometers even if it is loaded with a two-ton battery, which seriously restricts the operational efficiency of heavy trucks, which is naturally not favored by users; secondly, the purchase cost of electric heavy trucks is higher, ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 yuan more expensive than traditional fuel heavy trucks, which is obviously unable to make it more price-sensitive heavy truck consumers accept; third, due to the large size of electric heavy trucks themselves, The charging power requirements are higher, so the cost of building charging stations is also higher, and the lack of infrastructure greatly reduces the convenience of use, which restricts the promotion and application of electric heavy trucks.
The data shows that although the research and development of electric vehicle-related technologies is relatively early and the amount of the market is relatively large, the performance of the electric heavy-duty truck market has been stagnant, and even in 2020, when the development momentum of new energy vehicles is rapid, there is also a phenomenon of market shrinkage. In 2020, domestic electric heavy-duty truck sales were only 2585 units, down 48.7% year-on-year, compared with the overall sales of heavy-duty trucks reaching 1.62 million units, an increase of 38% year-on-year.
This situation has been greatly improved this year, the main reason is that since last year, the power exchange technology heavy station outlet, which has opened a window for the original slow development of electric heavy trucks, see the policy wind direction of Hanma Technology, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, Beiqi Foton, FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle and Geely's long-range vehicles and other commercial vehicle companies have increased the number of power replacement models, electric heavy trucks finally ushered in the "spring". According to statistics, from January to October, the sales of electric heavy trucks totaled 5136 units, an increase of 152.1% year-on-year. Among them, a total of 2817 heavy-duty trucks were sold, accounting for 54.8% of the overall sales of electric heavy-duty trucks.
Cost reduction and efficiency improvement The advantages of power exchange are obvious
Compared with the charging mode, the power exchange mode can better play the advantages of electric heavy trucks: First, through the vehicle-electricity separation mode, the purchase cost of electric heavy trucks can be reduced, coupled with the price of electricity itself is much lower than the oil price, so these make buyers and users more willing to choose to change heavy trucks; secondly, it takes only 5 minutes to change the power, which is roughly the same as the time for fuel vehicles to refuel, while saving charging time, greatly improving operational efficiency; third, it is understood that the service of the same number of heavy truck vehicles, The power required by the power exchange mode is much smaller than that of ordinary charging, the distribution capacity utilization coefficient is higher, which can effectively save land and power resources, and the decline in infrastructure construction costs also makes this model have broader development prospects.
According to Liu Kai, director of the Technology and Certification Department of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, the three heavy-duty truck characteristic cities mentioned in the "Notice" will carry out pilot work on power replacement heavy trucks from 3 different fields. Among them, Yibin focuses on typical scenarios such as mines, and mainly promotes the demonstration operation of shared heavy-duty truck power exchange. It is reported that because the size requirements of heavy truck battery packs are not as fine as those of passenger cars, it is easier to achieve sharing. In addition, many of the heavy trucks currently in use are mostly used in specific closed areas such as short-distance, mines, and docks, and the circulation is not large, and the base number is not so high, so the difficulty of promoting shared power exchange is relatively low.
It is worth mentioning that the "Technical Specifications for the Construction of Electric Medium and Heavy Truck Sharing and Replacement Vehicles" prepared by the Charging Alliance and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has passed the project review, and can also provide technical solutions for the heavy truck replacement mode after the official release next year.
Tangshan is aimed at the demand for finished product transportation of steel enterprises, and promotes the construction of a "three vertical and one horizontal" trunk line power exchange network to meet the needs of large steel enterprises to transport finished products to Jingtang Port and Caofeidian Port; Baotou focuses on sub-box power exchange technology, hoping to build an ecology that includes leasing, storage, transshipment, cascade utilization and other power battery applications. The relevant person in charge of Baotou said that the pilot will focus on broadening the application scenarios of heavy trucks for power exchange, and actively expand transportation scenarios such as garbage handling, slag removal, logistics parks, and municipal sanitation on the basis of increasing the proportion of use in mining areas, thermal power plants, and steel mills, forming a diversified demonstration effect.
It won't become mainstream In a particular scenario, it's possible
According to statistics, every 1,000 heavy trucks can reduce 140,000 tons of carbon dioxide and 12,500 tons of pollutant emissions per year, and the energy consumption cost is 5% to 10% less than that of fuel vehicles. In addition, through the use of 3 to 5 minutes battery rapid replacement technology and the operation mode of "vehicle-electricity separation", according to the scale of 50 heavy-duty trucks, if the operation is 5 years, each heavy-duty truck can save 120,000 yuan in costs, and the economic benefits are significant. However, when talking about the future development prospects of heavy trucks, many industry experts believe that heavy trucks can only play an advantage in specific scenarios, and it is difficult to become the mainstream product of the heavy truck market.
"In special scenarios such as ports and coal mines, the performance of heavy trucks for electricity replacement is better than that of traditional fuel trucks, and in scenes such as fixed-point and high-frequency urban construction transportation and domestic garbage transportation, heavy trucks can also play a great role." However, Cui Dongshu said bluntly that because it is difficult to take on the heavy responsibility of medium and long-distance transportation, there is still a lot of pressure and resistance for changing heavy trucks to move from the niche market to the public vision.
As the analyst of Orient Securities said, at present, the batteries between car companies cannot be interconnected, and the idea of ecological construction of car companies to change electricity is mainly based on models with a large number of own models, which is bound to cause low operational efficiency of the replacement power station, which will lead to waste of resources and non-prominent scale effects. This point is also prominent in the field of heavy truck replacement, and with the entry of more commercial vehicle companies, the replacement of heavy truck products continues to be enriched, and the difficulty of unifying battery standards may also increase, thus bringing difficulties to the larger promotion of the industry.
Professor Chen Quanshi of Tsinghua University also pointed out that in addition to being subject to battery standardization, safety issues such as battery heat dissipation and ventilation for heavy trucks also need to be paid great attention to. In addition, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the curb weight of the replacement heavy truck generally weighs 2.5 to 3 tons, which will bring about the loss of transportation efficiency and freight, and the problem of overweight battery system cannot be ignored.
However, the pilot work has played an important role in promoting and promoting the heavy truck market for power exchange. Public information shows that after the release of the "Notice on Organizing the Pilot Work on the Application of the Power Exchange Model of New Energy Enterprises", the relevant market demand has grown rapidly, and the orders for heavy trucks (mainly for electric tractors) in the first half of this year are mainly concentrated in April to June. It is conceivable that in the two years after the official launch of the pilot work, the replacement of heavy trucks is expected to usher in rapid development at the same time, explore a more scalable and replicable development path and landing mode, then the electrification of the commercial vehicle field will also compose a new development picture.
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