Now there is a strange phenomenon in the domestic real estate market: on the one hand, real estate regulation and control are continuing in an intense manner, and the intensity of real estate regulation and control in various places is increasing. On the other hand, 20 cities have issued "restriction orders" for the property market, and banks in some areas have begun to cut mortgage interest rates to limit the sharp decline in house prices in the short term. It can be seen that regulators do not want the sharp rise in house prices to continue to blow the real estate bubble, nor do they want house prices to fall sharply in the short term, causing systemic financial risks. In short, it is hoped that house prices will remain stable in the future.
Therefore, some netizens asked why Japan wanted to take the initiative to pierce the property bubble that year, not to fully protect house prices, but China should make every effort to avoid a rapid decline in house prices in the short term, hoping that the real estate market will remain stable? In fact, there is a reason why Japan took the initiative to pierce the housing bubble and did not fully protect house prices:
First, the Japanese real estate bubble was already very serious, and the market value of real estate in one district of Tokyo was equivalent to the market value of real estate in the United States. At that time, people with only a little money in Japan were adding leverage to speculate in houses. Therefore, even if Japan wanted to protect the house price, it could only be guaranteed for a while, and it could not be guaranteed for a long time, instead of this, the long pain was better than the short pain. And the guarantee of house prices will only continue to push up the house price bubble, and the harm will be even greater.
Second, after the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble, the Japanese economy was hit, and GDP stood still for 30 years, called the "lost 30 years". However, the quality of life of Japanese citizens has not declined, and Japan is still one of the few developed countries in Asia. This is mainly due to the fact that although Japan's domestic economy has declined, Japan also invested overseas in the 1960s and 1970s, and Japan's total overseas investment reached 10 trillion US dollars, bringing 3 trillion yuan of investment income every year. Therefore, japan, with the benefits of overseas investment, is still a developed country, and the quality of life of its citizens has not been greatly reduced. Clearly, Japan has also weathered the onslaught of a bursting housing bubble.
Third, in 1985, Japan signed the Plaza Accord with the United States and other Western countries, and the yen began to appreciate sharply, and it took only a few short years for the dollar to exchange for the yen from 1:240 to 1:120.
Subsequently, Japan can only begin to vigorously develop the real estate industry, but after the Emergence of a japanese real estate bubble, the Japanese government wants to quickly transform, quickly transform the mode of economic development, from real estate to the development of high-end manufacturing, and now Japan's semiconductor materials, industrial robots, ultra-high precision machine tools and other fields are standing in the world field position. At that time, Japan took the initiative to puncture the real estate bubble, but also in order to quickly transform the high-end manufacturing industry.
In fact, in the 1990s, Japan took the initiative to pierce the real estate bubble, mainly because the real estate bubble can not be saved, the long pain is not as good as the short pain, in addition, although the Japanese domestic economy has stopped growing for a long time, but the GNP (gross domestic product) is not bad, and it can also bring a lot of benefits to Japan every year. More critically, Japan wanted to quickly penetrate the transition to high-end manufacturing, and Japan was also successful in economic transformation. Many people may ask, why has China not taken the initiative to break the real estate bubble like Japan? The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble is a lesson for our country, we have learned the lessons of the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble, and we are fully capable of making domestic real estate achieve a soft landing. That is to say, in the short term, it is necessary to control house prices, avoid the ups and downs of house prices, neither let them rise sharply, nor let them fall sharply, let house prices fall steadily, through a few years of time, let high house prices gradually return to residential properties, squeeze the real estate bubble a little bit, and minimize the harm caused by the real estate bubble to the economy and finance.
In addition, although there is a serious bubble in domestic real estate, real estate is also a reservoir of over-issued currency, and a large number of over-issued currencies appear in the real estate field. Data show that in 2008 China's M2 reached 47 trillion, and by the first half of 2021 China's M2 scale has reached 231.78 trillion yuan, M2 scale is 2 times the GDP, if the real estate bubble burst rapidly, a large number of over-issued currency will embrace the commodity market, which will lead to a sharp rise in domestic prices. Therefore, it is necessary to let house prices land softly and gradually return to residential properties, rather than puncturing the real estate bubble at once.
Finally, consider the feelings of the buyers in front of you. If the domestic house prices have fallen sharply, not only will have an adverse impact on the economy and finance, but also affect the lives of buyers in previous years, there are currently 400 million domestic loan buyers, if the house price falls rapidly, there will be a sharp decline in the assets of these buyers, these people are difficult to bear the rapid evaporation of wealth This result.
If the high house price is allowed to take the way of boiling frogs in warm water, time for space, and slowly remove the real estate bubble, the negative impact on the families who bought houses in previous years will be minimized. China and Japan have different national conditions and have taken completely different ways of dealing with the housing bubble.