Chen Hao: There is no sign of opening a new game! Now there is an index that can be re-bullish

On Friday, the three major indexes opened with mixed gains and falls, and after the opening, the red market oscillated, and the small-cap stocks performed strongly. In the afternoon, the two cities soared, the three major indexes rose by more than 1%, the northbound funds continued to flow in more than 12 billion yuan, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 1.13% at 3560.37 points; the Shenzhen component index rose 1.19% at 14752.49 points; and the Chuang index rose 1.04% at 3418.96 points.

After Thursday's weak finishing, today the index ushered in a weak rally, most of the time in a state of rise, the trend is a volatile upward trend. As we approach the final month of the year, how will the market behave? How will the main force react? What changes need to be made to select funds? Wolf Marshal Chen Hao made a guest appearance on Yangguang Live Broadcasting, wonderful broadcast!

Chen Hao

December is coming, this is the last year-end month, if the main force does not have a tendency to ship, it should be the monthly line to close red, I still have a certain confidence. Legend has it that various institutions still care more about the year-end market value, at this time selling for fear that others will win themselves, so it cannot be said that the institution deliberately takes the initiative to raise the index, but they may restrain their own selling behavior, and it should still be good before New Year's Day.

Look at today's main force, in the top ten circulating market value of the plate, half of the funds to the electronic manufacturing sector, a lot of stocks are also more familiar to everyone, the wine sector accounts for the second; today's short plate is automobiles, home appliances, petroleum and petrochemicals, these are not much, can not say that it must be short. But in general, the institution launched a relatively strong variety, the strong Hengqiang, the last month of this year or plan to use some old heavy stocks, and then continue to increase the size, as if there is no sign of opening a new situation.

As far as the calendar year is concerned, unless there is a major bearish in December, the main force has almost no shipment tendency, and now the macro situation is very good, and there are not too many negative factors. And the shipment tendency of the main force is dynamically monitored, if there is this tendency, I can also see it, and everyone will know that there is no need to worry about this matter. Since the beginning of September, the Shanghai Composite Index has been retracing all the way, but the main position curve has been rising, which shows that the main force has bought a lot of goods. So why is it still impossible to stop the market from falling? It is because the index is more often the world of weighted stocks, for example, the banking sector is not good, and overall, the big finance is not strong enough to drag down the index.

Overall, the market as a whole is still a group of stocks with a medium market capitalization that is rising. I've noticed that the net value of the fund has risen recently, which means that institutions are making a lot of money, so they won't go either. The circulating market capitalization in the market uses the ranking of transactions to remove the top 5%, and then the top 30% to the top 10%, and the 20% of the stocks are about 800 just the focus, and other too small market capitalizations are not OK. Institutions have been saying that the standard for selecting stocks is the 10 billion circulating market value, and now I see that this standard has not changed - institutional heavy stocks are basically concentrated above the market value of 10 billion, and small-cap poor performance stocks are basically untouched.

Faced with such a situation, it is best for investors to diversify their investments and not to take too seriously to look at the stocks in their hands. Everyone's trading system has a floating profit ranking, and the selection of stocks is basically to dig out some low-performing stocks in this regard. After buying, if you make money, you don't have to pay attention to him; if you find that you lose more (and you won't all lose a lot), you will kill it, and then go to exchange, and gradually your stock will settle into the institutional control stock, and then the burden of trading will be very light, the important thing is that you score the position.

I chose the fund is also so chosen, first of all, the performance should be OK, I generally do not want to recommend the performance is particularly good, because there will be a bullfrog curse. Then you see that its performance is OK, how to choose next? Look at its top ten heavy stocks, is it a decentralized configuration on a map called style? The so-called style map is that the horizontal axis is the circulation plate, and the vertical axis is the return on net assets. If the allocation is too concentrated, then this kind of fund sometimes pits people. Small and medium-sized investors do stocks is the same, if you are concentrated on a track, such as chemicals, the original is good, it is a retracement of you will soon be chaotic, the heart is also under great pressure, so to disperse.

If you speculate in stocks, who can guarantee that you can win? In particular, most of them are non-professional small and medium-sized investors. But the capital market has a benefit: the median value of the return on net assets of listed companies is 8%, and the second half is not wanted, then in the first half you find more than half, that is, the first 25% of the return on net assets is more than 12%, that is, no matter how mixed, the average annualized return will exceed 10%, so our stock market is a very good place. But why do the majority of investors always make money? Because you're always on the cusp chasing up, always chasing me to make money every week; as long as you lie flat, you take some stocks with good market value with high yields on the financial statements, even if you don't choose stocks, there is an average of 12%.

Now if you look at the index, the worst is the Shanghai 50, the best should be the CSI 500 plus the CSI 1000, which is currently such a distribution. CSI 500 has recently had a wave of continuous adjustments, this adjustment is very normal, because after all, it is not as stable as the broader market, and I noticed that the CSI 500 entered the correction because it ventured: the trend before the beginning of September was called mad bull characteristics, which was originally a good upward channel, and the result had to be upward, and now it is withdrawn and returned to the upward channel, so now the index can be re-optimistic.

The new A50 is called the concept of Moutai Town, in fact, it means that the leaders of various industries are called various "Mao", this stock is the main track of wealth of various institutions since 2019, because the delicious meat has been eaten, all of which are overvalued, including Guizhou Moutai, so the sample stocks of this index you have to hide from it.