On November 18, a huge air-conditioning mass took control of all of Siberia, penetrating deep into the five Central Asian countries. The morning temperature map can be seen, and even Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have all dropped below zero. The northern part of Xinjiang in China has begun to be affected by it, and many places have issued cold wave warnings; Tianchi is full of snow and the temperature has plummeted by 10 degrees.
On the morning of November 18, the temperature in Siberia, Central Asia and the surrounding region came from the Russian Meteorological Service
It can be seen that this cold air is very different from the cold wave in early November. The last great cold wave, the cold air mass almost all from West Siberia, the concentration of power, the momentum of rapid; and this time the cold air has three sources: Central Siberia, West Siberia, Central Asia. They are divided and combined, gradually moving south, whether it is the cooling speed or the cooling range, it is not as good as the last cold wave, can only be said to be a "compound cold wave".
The schematic diagram of the southward path of this "compound cold wave" is marked by Zhongqi Love
However, this stepwise cooling feature will put the northeast under pressure from a blizzard again, and it will be a more typical blizzard than the last one. Because before the formation of the "snow cyclone", the northeast will be fully cooled; most of the water vapor will be directly frozen into snowflakes falling, and the proportion of rain, frozen rain and ice particles will be greatly reduced.
On November 21, the northeast precipitation pattern, Zhongqi Ai, was produced based on ECMWF data
Moreover, due to the low eddy cold wave, it will pass through the northeast instead of the Bohai Sea; this snow cyclone will also pass through the Heilongjiang River in Jilin Instead of Liaoning. Therefore, the focus of this blizzard will be Jilin and Heilongjiang, especially in the eastern part of the two provinces – which is typical of the snowy land of our country. In March 2015, Fuyuan, Heilongjiang, once had a snow depth of 120 centimeters, creating a historical record for snow depth in eastern China.
This forecast of snow depth in Northeast China comes from meteorogix
The center of this blizzard should not be in Fuyuan, but in the Shuangyashan-Jiamusi-Hegang-Yichun area, there may be a large blizzard, and some areas may approach or even break the local historical record; due to the cold tide and low vortex, there is still room for south-to-west adjustment, and the amount of snow in Harbin and Changchun may continue to be adjusted upwards. Especially in Harbin, where it last snowed and rained, this time it may usher in a typical blizzard or heavy snowstorm.
On November 22, the northeast precipitation pattern was produced by Zhongqi Ai based on ECMWF data
While affecting the northeast, multiple strands of cold air will meet on November 21, followed by a large-scale southward movement. Obviously, for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, this is not a "compound cold wave", but a typical cold wave, which will bring about a cliff-like rapid cooling, and the suburbs of Anhui and Shanghai in Jiangsu may fall below 0 degrees; and Yunnan-Guizhou and South China are likely to be colder than the last time.
Low temperature distribution in the Yangtze River Delta on November 24, from windyty
We caution that the blizzard in the northeast and the rapid cooling in the south will begin this weekend (November 20-21) and reach its strongest next Monday (November 22). Also ask friends in the northeast and south to be prepared. The most welcome to this "compound cold wave" should be the North China Plain, where the extremely strong fog will be completely dissipated in the wind.
Visibility and real shooting in Tianjin on November 18, from NMC and netizens