Recently, the registration of candidates for the Philippine general election has ended. Looking back over the past month or so, there has been a very interesting scene in the Philippine political arena: the current president Duterte is not ready to retire, but is running for the Senate at the last minute, and many candidates have withdrawn or replaced their applications in the past few days... Even the Philippine media lamented that it is not enough to use "strange" to describe the political developments in the Philippines over the past week.
This wave of "wayward" operations of the candidates is really incomprehensible. Dai Fan, deputy dean of the School of International Relations of Jinan University and director of the Philippine Research Center, said in an interview with Tianmu News that the Philippine election involves the distribution of interests and election layout of the political forces and factions behind them, and they may formally determine the candidate framework after continuous communication.
With the dust settled on the list of candidates, before next year's general election, the candidates will definitely use the "eighteen martial arts" to win the votes, and in the end, who will become the final winner of this power struggle?
A race full of variables: some people are on the verge of leaving, some people are running unexpectedly
In May 2022, the Philippines will hold a new national leadership election, at which time, the new president, vice president, congressman and provincial governor and congress will form the new force of the Philippine regime. Among them, in accordance with previous electoral practice, the president and vice president will be voted by the voters separately.
At 5 p.m. local time on November 15, the deadline for submitting and amending the application for election elections has reached the deadline. The confusion of the electoral situation in the Philippines has aroused the attention of the outside world.
According to the Philippine "Daily Inquirer" report, from the 9th to the 15th, the Philippine Election Commission received 15 applications for withdrawal of the election; on the 15th alone, the Election Commission received 10 applications to replace candidates. The Daily Inquirer pointed out that the withdrawal of candidates, substitutions, "roommates", etc., are things that have never happened in the Philippines before.
To this end, the Philippine political watchdog called on the EC to revisit the submission of applications to "occupy the pit". However, ICC spokesman Jimenez said that after November 16, although political parties can no longer change the list of candidates, candidates can still withdraw their applications at any time.
In the Philippine campaign drama, the most talked about is none other than incumbent President Duterte and his daughter Sarah. The outside world has speculated that this "father-daughter battle together" will further increase the political influence of the Duterte camp.
However, things went unexpectedly. Sarah, the current mayor of Davao City, did not compete for president as her father wished, but formally submitted materials to apply for vice presidential candidacy on November 13. At the same time, as a leader with high support in the northern Philippines, Sarah announced that she would join hands with the presidential candidate Marcos Jr., who has deep roots in the southern Philippines, and Marcos Jr., the son of former President Marcos.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announces her candidacy for vice president Source: Xinhua News Agency
It has to be said that Sarah's move to join the other side's camp was opposed by the Democratic People's Power Party, the ruling party in the Philippines. According to the South China Morning Post, Duterte said he would support his longtime aide, incumbent Senator Christopher Wu, for president, and that Marcos Jr. was not the best candidate in his mind.
On the other hand, Duterte's candidacy can be called a reversal and a reversal. In October, after Duterte announced that he was going to retire, he let the presidential office release the news to run for vice president, and when the outside world once suspected that the father and daughter were going to compete on the same stage, there were Philippine media reports that when the candidate registration date was about to end, Duterte high-profile "admitted" to participate in the election of senators.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ran for the Senate on November 15, 2021 Image source: Xinhua News Agency
According to the analysis of Dai Fan, deputy dean of the School of International Relations of Jinan University and director of the Philippine Studies Center, Duterte has been controversial in the Philippines because of his political means, and he may be held accountable by opposition political opponents after stepping down.
Dai Fan pointed out that Duterte's candidacy for vice president may not be successful because there are more suitable candidates to compete. In addition, he gave up running for vice president, in part out of consideration for his daughter. Well, running for the Senate is actually a wiser approach for him, and since his influence is still there, Duterte is likely to succeed in the important position of Senator Speaker.
It is worth mentioning that Duterte has a high prestige among Filipino civilians. On the one hand, he not only drastically rectified the chaos of drug proliferation and corruption in the official arena, but on the other hand, he vigorously promoted a series of development strategies such as "large-scale construction and special construction" and carried out large-scale infrastructure construction throughout the country, which stimulated the economic development of the Philippines.
Will the "second generation of presidents" partner become the strongest combination in the election?
The latest polls show that Marcos Jr. has a 47 percent approval rating, far higher than other presidential candidates. This was followed by Philippine Vice President Leni Robredo (18 percent) and Manila Mayor Isco Moreno (13 percent). In terms of vice presidential candidates, Senate President Vincent Soto ranked first with 44 percent of the vote, and Sarah came in second with 25 percent of the vote.
For now, it seems that Marcos Jr. and Sarah are not only highly vocal, but also basically complementary – the Influence of the Marcos family covers the northern part of the Philippines, while the Duterte family is widely supported in the southern Philippines. The two sides join forces to win the election.
Voters chant slogans outside the Election Commission in Manila, Philippines Image: Xinhua News Agency
But this does not mean that the "Martha combination" has won the game. Dai Fan pointed out that if the momentum of the two is too strong, it is very likely to become the target of public criticism, attracting the active attack of all opponents.
According to Reuters reported on November 17, a group called "Campaign Against the Return and Martial Law of the Marcos Family" submitted a complaint to the Philippine Election Commission on the same day, demanding that he be banned from running for president.
According to sources, during his 1995 tenure as governor of Ilocos Dorinta, Marcos Jr. was convicted of tax evasion for failing to file income tax returns from 1982 to 1985. Two years later, the Court of Appeal upheld the verdict. Under Philippine tax law, public officials convicted in tax matters are not allowed to hold public office, vote or participate in any election for life. This has laid hidden dangers for the election path of the "Martha Combination".
Both for the philippines' domestic political developments and foreign policy, this election is very critical. Since Duterte came to power in 2016, social security in the Philippines has improved, people's livelihood facilities have been improved, and exchanges with China, Russia and other countries have been strengthened. The outcome of the general election has a decisive influence on the survival of these political legacies.
"Whoever becomes president will greatly affect the future of China-Philippines relations." Dai Fan pointed out that among several candidates, Marcos Jr. has a friendly attitude toward China, and if he is elected president, it is likely to continue Duterte's foreign policy.
According to the Philippine Chinese-language media "World Journal" reported on October 22, Xiao Marcos pointed out in an interview with the media that the relationship between the Philippines and all countries, including China, is indispensable, and good-neighborliness and friendship are beneficial to both sides.
Marcos Jr. also stressed that although the Philippines and China have differences, the two sides have to seek consensus, the Philippines and China "must be connected by the people", the more areas of cooperation between the two countries, the better.
However, for now, although there are frequent high-level interactions between China and the Philippines, many problems such as the South China Sea and illegal immigration still exist, and at the same time, the United States has obstructed them, which has undoubtedly hindered the continuous improvement of bilateral relations.