Had Jisaburo Ozawa replaced Tadaochi Minamimo as commander of the Mobile Forces on the eve of the Pacific War, would the Japanese Navy have been able to achieve a greater victory?
Nanyun Junichi of "Pit Day"?
For Nanyun Junichi, everyone knows better, and some people jokingly call him "Pit Day Famous General".
■ Minamiun Tadaichi (25 March 1887 – July 6, 1944) was criticized for his incomplete attack on Pearl Harbor and his failure to do Midway
The reason why Nanyun has been criticized is that he is cautious and lacks courage and strain.
The big old man ran to Pearl Harbor and fired a cannon, morale was high, hundreds of aircraft were full of fuel, but they wasted a great opportunity, and did not attack the Pearl Harbor repair plant and oil depot and hurriedly turned around and went home. The "thief style" is fully displayed.
Midway was even more killed by the United States in hesitation, and the Elite of the Japanese Navy was almost lost.
Better Jinzaburo Ozawa?
So is Ozawa really better than Nanyun?
■ Jisaburo Ozawa (1886.10.2 – September 9, 1966) Was the first Japanese naval aviation combat practitioner whose unique skill was "attack from the outside", and was hunted for turkeys in Mariana
Both Ozawa and Minamiun graduated from the Edajima Naval Academy. Ozawa ranked moderately over the same period. And Nanyun ranked 7th among 191 people in the same period, which is very good. It can be said that Nanyun's theoretical knowledge is better than Ozawa's.
Neither of them came from aviation warfare and belonged to the same torpedo expert.
In August 1933, Nanyun served as a member of the Drafting Committee of the Japanese Navy's 'Naval Aviation Warfare Model Drafting Committee, and compiled the Japanese Navy's Aviation Warfare Teaching Model Materials. Ozawa, on the other hand, actually commanded the First Air Force for a year, studying aviation operations diligently. During exercises in early 1940, Ozawa commanded the aircraft carrierS Akagi and the light carrier Ryūsa, attacking the Nagato, Mutsu, and Soryu aircraft carriers led by Isoroku Yamamoto. Using his carrier-based aircraft and the Marine-based Aviation attached to him, Ozawa organized a frenzied air raid of up to 81 aircraft, "sinking" the two battleships Nagato and Mutsu. As a result, Ozawa has more practical experience in aircraft carrier operations.
One learns well and one has practical experience. What is better or worse?
Why NGC?
Why was the commander of the mobile unit chosen before the war Nanyun and not Ozawa?
Qualifications!
Nanyun graduated from the 36th class of the Naval Academy and achieved good results. Better than Ozawa's mediocre score in the 37th issue.
Interpersonal!
Nanyun had a very good personnel record in the Japanese Navy, holding many important positions, and in 1922, Nanyun, who was still a minor, had already worked in the first shift of the Japanese Naval Headquarters, and the interpersonal relationship was also good. Although Ozawa is also a shōsa, he is serving as the captain of the destroyer.
experience!
Nanun has richer fleet command and navigation experience than Ozawa.
characteristic!
Compared to Nanyun's thoughtfulness and caution, Ozawa seemed to think more jumpily. Jumping thinking may be surprisingly successful without common sense, but this is exactly what Isoroku Yamamoto, as commander of the Combined Fleet, is worried about, in case the game is too big to deviate, it can be...
Therefore, Yamamoto Finally chose Nanyun as the commander of the mobile unit.
■ Isoroku Yamamoto (April 4, 1884 – April 18, 1943) was a former Admiral of the Imperial Japanese Navy and commander of the Combined Fleet of Japan during World War II
If we replaced Nanun with Jisaburo Ozawa as commander of the mobile forces, would the Japanese Navy be able to achieve a greater victory?
Before making this assumption, it is important to look at what Japan wanted to do in the first place, and what kind of goal it wanted to achieve.
What is Japan really going to do?
In July 1941, as the United States, Britain and other countries stopped exporting various strategic materials to Japan and imposed economic sanctions on Japan, Japan's reserves of important strategic materials were only measured in months, which was completely insufficient to support the war of aggression against China and the covetousness of Southeast Asia, and even triggered the statement that "the Empire of Japan will die without a war".
In August, the Japanese Navy decided to go to war against the United States and Britain: instead of sitting still, it was better to let it go!
In Yamamoto Isoroku's letter to the Minister of the Navy and Kawako Shiro, the following is described:
Once a war with the United States is launched, our army should adopt a strategy: concentrate its firepower on the enemy fleet and quickly reach the death of the U.S. Navy. Thus demoralizing the American nation, so as to ensure that the key obstacles of East Asia stand in an invincible position... Once the main fleet of the United States is completely destroyed by our army, the idle troops south of the Philippines will inevitably lose their fighting spirit, and it will be difficult for them to be able to fight with our army.
By November 1941, the Japanese Army and Navy had completed their preparations for war.
On November 7, the Japanese Navy identified Hawaii, the site of attack. Attack time: December 7.
Japan's purpose is clear: to first provoke a Pacific War, to completely destroy the main Fleet of the U.S. Pacific, to drive U.S. troops out of the Far East in order to control the sea line of communication between the Japanese mainland and the South China Sea, and to ensure the security of the southern front where the war is about to begin.
Pearl Harbor must be won!
The Japanese Navy had no plans to attack the U.S. Navy on its own initiative. In August 1939, yamamoto took office as commander of the Combined Fleet, and began to establish a naval aviation unit and re-studied traditional operations against the United States.
In January 1941, Yamamoto issued a secret order to Ōnishi Takijiro to study the battle plan for an attack on Hawaii and attack Pearl Harbor.
Onishi gave the research instructions to Genda Shi, a staff officer of the First Air Fleet. The Genda Battle Plan was characterized by the centralized use of six aircraft carriers from three air fleets to create an absolute offensive advantage.
Until September, however, despite the good results of the exercise, the military command did not approve the plan. The reason is that the risk is too great, and if it is not done well, it will cause devastating losses. In addition, once the plan is adopted, it must be decided quickly and with all the courage.
Despite the backlash, Isoroku Yamamoto expressed his resolve to Minister of the Navy, Shigetaro Shimada:
Although this plan is very risky, if it can be implemented decisively, I am confident of winning... If the aviation unit does not have the courage to win, then I myself will serve as the commander of the aviation fleet, even if only my troops participate in the war, I have the determination!
Yamamoto has always firmly believed that as long as the US Pacific Fleet is eliminated, the Japanese army's operations in the southern theater will be overwhelming. Because of this, the understanding of the mobile force in this battle is that the attack on Pearl Harbor is to effectively cooperate with the operation on the Southern Front.
■ Raid on Pearl Harbor On December 7, 1941, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and the eight battleships of the US Pacific Fleet were five sunk and three wounded, suffering heavy losses.
What happens if I change to Ozawa?
I understood Japan's purpose and Yamamoto's intentions. See if he replaces Nanyun with Ozawa, will he really strengthen his attack and continue to push Pearl Harbor to the sky?
In fact, the question mainly focuses on whether Ozawa will destroy the US military ship repair plant and oil depot.
With Ozawa's mind at that time, and his understanding of the battle intent and attack plan, it is indeed possible to send a third attack wave. However, Ozawa's targets were mostly those American ships and aircraft that could still move.
First, at that time, Japan's concept of war was still very shallow and backward, and it was not yet fully realized that war was a contest of comprehensive strength, rather than relying on the number of weapons invested to determine victory or defeat.
The second reason is that the attack plan and combat objectives of this operation are only aimed at the US capital ships, and the types of bases and facilities have not been emphasized in advance. Not to mention the deadly steel and concrete bumps in the pearl harbor oil depot, even if Ozawa's thinking jumps, it will be helpless for a while.
The third reason is that the fateful quick battle is a quick decision! Japan can't afford a war of attrition, whether it's tactical or strategic, all he wants is a quick battle! This short-term gambling mentality of maximizing profits simply cannot go any further.
■ Air Raid on Pearl Harbor During the air raid, the Japanese lost only 29 aircraft, which can be described as a one-hit success.
At the same time, the calm and calm Ozawa will definitely seriously consider:
The two pre-war sandbox exercises were in danger of being detected by the U.S. military and triggering mantis flycatchers. After all, the US aircraft carriers were not in Pearl Harbor at that time, what if this was a trap? Moreover, at this time, the aircraft carrier Enterprise commanded by Halsey was indeed already searching for the Japanese fleet.
The first two waves of attacks are over, and even if the third wave of attacks refuels and reloads in the fastest time, the release will be in the afternoon, and it will be dark on the return journey and landing, which is a great risk.
The more attacks there are, the more orderly the U.S. counterattack will be, and the greater the losses.
The order was to destroy the U.S. Pacific Fleet, not to pounce on it and play with all the pieces. A long-distance attack of 3400 nautical miles, how to bring the main force back intact? ......
Therefore, Ozawa can only end up hastily in the end. Otherwise, if it was really counterattacked by Halsey's fleet and caught off guard, the Pacific War might not be over in 1942!
■ The Battle of Pearl Harbor was a naval battle that officially bid farewell to the era of battleships, and the aircraft carriers spared by the US military will shine in the subsequent battles until the final victory.
Did Ozawa bring a bigger victory?
The answer is: no!
Because even if Ozawa succeeded in launching the third wave of attacks, the American aircraft carrier was not in Pearl Harbor at that time. And the Japanese Navy, which pioneered the use of carrier formations to attack and succeed, would not be unaware of what the three "missing" U.S. carriers meant.
Second, the United States has long been prepared, and it has been clear in the WPPac-46 battle plan: once the war starts, it will attack the Japanese transport fleet and blockade the Japanese mainland with submarines. That is to say, whether there is a Battle of Pearl Harbor or not, as long as the war starts, the United States will cut off Japan's main artery for resource transportation. And this is the most fatal to Japan.
Third, even if Ozawa sank all 8 U.S. battleships in the third attack wave, the strong industrial productivity of the United States would begin to replenish the battleship group in 1943, thus launching a resolute counterattack. According to the pre-war plan, the U.S. army will first capture the Marshall Islands, then occupy the Truk Islands, establish a forward base... Therefore, no matter how much the US military loses at Pearl Harbor, the overall direction and course of the war will not change.
Backward notions of war, gambler-like short-sightedness, and a defeated strategy allowed Japan to lose from the very beginning of the Pacific War. From this point of view, it is not meaningful to assume that Ozawa can achieve greater victories in the Pacific theater by replacing Nanyun.