【First Commercial Vehicle Network Original】
In the first three quarters of 2021, the new energy heavy-duty truck market continued to rise rapidly, and since March, the year-on-year growth rate has exceeded 100 (or close to breaking 100) for seven consecutive months, becoming one of the most eye-catching segments in the heavy-duty truck market. Especially after entering the second half of the year, in the downturn of the heavy-duty truck market, the new energy and heavy-duty truck market has reached a new high, and the monthly sales record has been refreshed one after another, which can be described as a positive momentum.
In October, can the new energy heavy truck market reach a new high? What are the new changes in the market competition pattern? Take a look at the analytical reports brought by the first commercial vehicle network.
In October, actual sales reached a new high of 435% to record the largest increase in the year
According to the latest data mastered by the first commercial vehicle network, in October this year, the domestic new energy heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 1279 vehicles (traffic insurance terminal sales caliber, excluding exports and military vehicles, the same below), following the creation of the first "thousand-level" performance in 2021 in September, the monthly sales record was refreshed again, sales increased by 15% month-on-month, up 435% year-on-year, creating the largest increase since 2021. In 2021, the new energy heavy-duty truck market has been running for 9 consecutive months with a large increase or even a sharp increase, of which 7 months have risen by more than 100. In the first 10 months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks were 5590 units, an increase of 170% year-on-year, and the cumulative increase was 34 percentage points larger than that of January to September (136%), continuing to grow at a high speed.
As can be seen in the image above, the red curve representing 2021 has been above the blue curve (representing 2020) since February. Since the beginning of this year, the new energy heavy-duty truck market has always shown a continuous development trend, sales in recent months have risen month by month, and the sales volume of 1279 vehicles in October has exceeded that of September, creating a new high in the new energy heavy-duty truck market in 2021. In fact, looking at the last three years, the performance in October 2021 is also the best (except for the abnormal performance brought about by the centralized listing of pure electric dump trucks purchased in Shenzhen in June 2019, which is a one-time behavior and does not have long-term sustainability).
From the perspective of fuel types, the new energy heavy-duty truck technology route in the first 10 months of this year is still dominated by pure electric, but the proportion of hydrogen fuel continues to expand. As shown in the figure below, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in new energy heavy-duty trucks in the first 10 months of this year reached 91.88%, a decrease of about 6.7 percentage points compared with 98.55% in the same period last year; the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks and diesel hybrid heavy-duty trucks was 7.78% and 0.34% respectively, and the proportion of fuel cell models increased significantly year-on-year (but decreased from 9.42% from January to September), and the proportion of hybrid models decreased by 0.39 percentage points year-on-year.
The proportion of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the new energy heavy truck market has increased significantly this year, an increase of more than 7 percentage points over the same period last year, and the prospect is promising. With the increasing popularity of the concept of "hydrogen energy" under the "double carbon" strategy, more and more heavy-duty truck brands are entering this segment. The following table shows that there are 9 hydrogen fuel heavy truck companies that have achieved the brand this year, compared with only 3 in the same period last year (Jiangling, Dayun and Liberation); from January to October this year, the cumulative sales of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks have reached 435, and 29 hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck terminals have been sold in October, which are "contributed" by Dongfeng, SAIC Hongyan, Foshan Feichi and Nanjing Golden Dragon, and 20 of them have been "contributed" by Dongfeng Company.
Dongfeng hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck
As of October 2021, Dayun, Jiefang, Dongfeng, Hongyan, Heavy Duty Truck, Foshan Feichi, etc. have all joined the "battle situation" of hydrogen energy heavy trucks; next, as hydrogen energy heavy trucks in more regions switch from trial operation to batch demonstration operation, there will be more enterprises' products on the brand operation.
January-October 2021 hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck sales ranking (unit: unit)
(Note: The above table is the sales volume of hydrogen fuel heavy truck chassis manufacturers, and the sales volume of modified manufacturers is not listed separately)
Sany won the first place in the monthly list Hongyan and Xugong sold more than 150 vehicles and ranked in the top three
In the first 10 months of this year, the domestic new energy heavy truck market has 11 "players" with sales of 100 or more vehicles, the cumulative sales of the top ten enterprises have exceeded 200 vehicles, and the cumulative sales of 6 enterprises such as Sany Group, Hanma Technology, Dongfeng, SAIC Hongyan, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, XCMG Heavy Truck and so on have exceeded 500 vehicles, with cumulative sales of 773 vehicles, 764 vehicles, 661 vehicles, 553 vehicles, 512 vehicles and 503 vehicles respectively, an increase of 854%, 170%, 50%, net increase, 156% and 124% respectively.
Sales ranking of new energy heavy truck enterprises from January to October 2021 (unit: unit)
(Note: The above table is the sales volume of new energy heavy truck chassis manufacturers, and the sales volume of modified manufacturers is not listed separately)
In October, Sany Group won the first place in the monthly sales list of new energy heavy-duty truck terminals with sales of 325 vehicles, and the good performance of September and October for two consecutive months also allowed Sany to win the top position in the cumulative sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks in 1-10 months with the cumulative sales of 773 vehicles, you know, the sales of Sany new energy heavy-duty trucks in January-August this year are only the top eight, and after two months have passed, Sany's ranking in the qualifying competition has risen by 7 places, and the performance is eye-catching. In addition, SAIC Hongyan momentum is still unabated, in October a single month sold 186 new energy heavy trucks, Hongyan new energy heavy trucks have been sold more than 100 vehicles for three consecutive months, with this stable sales, Hongyan 1-10 months ranking from 1-8 months rose to 4th, the prospect is bright. In fact, these are only a small part of the large number of new energy orders that SAIC Hongyan New Energy Heavy Truck has received in recent months, and in the future, as these orders are operated in various places, SAIC Hongyan's position in the field of new energy heavy trucks will be further advanced.
Due to the lack of brands in the new energy heavy truck market in the first 10 months of last year, the sales volume is not high, which makes many new energy heavy truck brands in the first three quarters of this year have seen several times the growth, for example, in the first 10 months of this year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 290 FAW Jiefang, the same period last year only 35 new energy heavy trucks on the brand, the increase reached more than 7 times, Foton Zhilan, Dayun heavy trucks and Sany and other enterprises have also increased by 7 times, or even 8 times.
From the perspective of market share, Sany Group temporarily ranked first in the industry, the market share in the first 10 months of this year reached 13.83%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the same period last year; Hanma Technology followed closely behind, scoring 13.67% of the new energy heavy truck market this year; SAIC Hongyan currently ranked in the top four in the industry in this year's new energy heavy truck market, and the share increased from 0 in the same period last year to 9.89% in the first 10 months of the year, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points; in addition, Nanjing Golden Dragon, Jiefang, Foton, The market share of enterprises such as Dayun has also increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
In the first 10 months of this year, the overall market of new energy heavy trucks achieved 170% growth, and some companies increased several times year-on-year, but some brands showed double-digit declines, showing a scene of ice and fire in terms of growth rate. The first commercial vehicle network analysis believes that the emergence of this situation is mainly due to the substantial change in the sales structure of the new energy heavy truck market.
As shown in the figure above, in the first 10 months of this year, the proportion of new energy tractors exceeded half of the country, reaching 50.45%, an increase of more than 24 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; while the proportion of new energy heavy-duty special vehicles above 12T shrank from 52.98% in the same period last year, and the proportion of more than 50% shrank from 31.81% in the first 10 months of this year to only 30%, a decrease of more than 21 percentage points. The main reason is that the order of the new energy sanitation vehicle group has decreased this year, and the new energy sanitation vehicle is precisely the sales of new energy special vehicles. Therefore, in the first 10 months of this year, the enterprises with a large proportion of sanitation vehicle business were basically in a state of decline, while those who got tow trucks could get "growth". Most of the top companies in the first three quarters of this year are leading enterprises in new energy tractors, such as Hanma Technology, Hongyan, Beiben, XCMG, Jiefang and so on.
North Benz pure electric tractor
Tractors exceeded 500 vehicles for three consecutive months Hongyan won the championship for three consecutive months
The tractor segment is the flashpoint, key point and top priority of the new energy heavy truck market, and no matter how much it is emphasized, it cannot be overemphasized.
According to the data mastered by the first commercial vehicle network, from January to October this year, a total of 2820 new energy tractors were licensed nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 424%, of which the actual sales in October reached 528, and the terminal market of new energy tractors stood at the height of 500 monthly sales in the last three months (525 in August and September), and the momentum is fierce. SAIC Hongyan won the championship again in this segment, its number of licenses in October was 115, saicid Hongyan also won the "triple crown" of the new energy tractor market in August, September and October, and Hongyan's ranking in the new energy tractor segment from January to October has reached the top two.
In the first 10 months of this year, the number of tractor brands operating more than 100 vehicles reached 8, an increase of one more than after September, the top two Hanma Technology and SAIC Hongyan sales both exceeded 400 vehicles, reaching 609 and 416 vehicles respectively, and the share of the new energy tractor market in January to October this year was 21.60% and 14.75% respectively. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative market share of more than 10% of the enterprises also include Beiben Heavy Truck and XCMG Heavy Truck, reaching 11.99% and 10.18% respectively, and the cumulative share of FAW Jiefang, which is currently ranked fifth in the new energy tractor, is also close to 10%, reaching 9.82%.
Sales ranking of new energy tractor enterprises from January to October 2021 (unit: unit)
As of October, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, XCMG Heavy Truck, FAW Jiefang, Foton Zhilan, Dongfeng and Sany had 338, 287, 277, 193, 171 and 136 new energy tractors respectively, which were operating on new energy tractors, which were the other five enterprises with sales exceeding 100 in addition to Hanma Technology and SAIC Hongyan, temporarily ranking 3rd-8th in the industry; the sales of new energy tractors in the 9th and later enterprises have not exceeded 100 in January-October this year, but most of the companies last year only had single-digit sales. Therefore, all companies are surging upwards.
In addition, compared with the same period last year, a major change in the new energy tractor market this year is a substantial increase in the number of "players": from January to October last year, the new energy tractor market included 10 "players" in the new energy tractor market, including Hanma Technology, Beiben, Futian, Jiangling, Dongfeng, BYD, Dayun, Jiefang, XCMG and United Truck; in the first 10 months of this year, there were 19 "players" in the new energy tractor market, almost doubling. From the growth trend of the number of participating enterprises, it is not difficult to see that the industry is optimistic about the future market prospects of this segment. And it is certain that due to the continuous emergence of hundreds or even thousands of large orders in the new energy heavy truck market in recent years, as these orders are gradually "transformed" into cards, the new energy heavy truck market is bound to create new sales records.
Red Rock Jieshi H6 electric tractor