Wheat wants to fly high in the wind
Wheat market prices climbed all the way after the National Day, what was the reason for the rise? Let's take a look back.
First, rainy weather affects the purchase, sale and transportation of wheat market, and weather factors have become the first step of wheat rise.
Second, after the National Day, the weather is getting cooler, the demand for flour is warmer, the consumption of wheat in milling enterprises is accelerating, and the enthusiasm for acquisition is improved. However, grain merchants are highly bullish, they have a strong mentality of holding up grain and refusing to sell, and the circulation of grain sources in the market is insufficient. The lack of supply became the driving force for the further rise of wheat.
Third, this year, some areas are affected by weather factors and the winter sowing of wheat has been delayed, and the market is more worried about the output of wheat next year. This further exacerbated the bullish and reluctance to sell sentiment in the wheat market, and the reluctance of traders to sell has strengthened, pushing wheat prices up again.
Fourth, the much-anticipated wheat auction in the city of Toshi began to come out, but the result was not satisfactory. On October 20, 1 million tons of wheat were put into the city, 80% of which were aged grains for feeding, and only 20% of the milling enterprises could use it, which was a drop in the current market, and the impact on the market price only reflected the two-day price decline, and the market price entered the rising mode. Everyone began to look forward to the second auction, but in the end, it was indeed a volume of 40,000 tons in Hubei, which ... In the critical stage of continuous rise in market prices, the policy wheat release is so Buddhist, is it an indulgence of price increases or another far-sighted consideration?
Fear of policy intervention
In fact, the reason why the state operates in this way is also the result of careful consideration. Since last year, the price difference between corn and wheat has been expanding, the advantages of wheat feed substitution have emerged, and the phenomenon of feed enterprises and milling enterprises grabbing grain is obvious. After the price of new corn fell slowly after the listing, it began to rise in mode, and the price difference between the two has been reduced, but there is still an alternative advantage. There are only 46 million tons of wheat stocks left in the city, if it is now large-scale release, it will be snapped into the feed enterprises to become feed, so it will not be able to play the purpose of the wheat entering the flour enterprises in the city to stabilize the price of wheat.
This week's auction of stored grain and wheat was adjusted to be limited to flour companies, which also indicates that the state's regulation of wheat has begun. Now the market attention is still on the auction of wheat in the city, and the market rumors are wave after wave. Wheat prices have risen to an all-time high and are about to break through 1.5 yuan! The rapid rise in prices and the fierce increase in prices have made everyone have a fear of heights.
Will the state supplement the market with other stocks of wheat in grain storage, ground storage, and provincial storage in the future?
It's cold in the heights
As wheat prices continue to rise, grain merchants' fear of heights has intensified. The price of the expected shipment is constantly refreshed, profits and risks coexist, I am afraid that it will rise after going out early, and I am afraid that it will not be timely after the late out. Constantly tangled between out of necessity. Some people who are afraid of heights have begun to take profits on the high, and the bag is safe, and the circulation of grain sources in the market is gradually sufficient; after the increase in the volume of milling enterprises, the purchase price has been narrowly reduced.
It is not only grain merchants who are afraid of rising wheat prices, but also the purchasing mentality of milling enterprises tends to be cautious. The people actively hoard flour, overdrafted the stock market of the previous year, as the flour stock is nearing the end, the flour shipment speed of the flour enterprise slows down, and the price of flour tends to be stable. Now that wheat is purchased at a high price, it is difficult for flour companies to support the cost of raw grain that continues to rise in the later period. As a result, some companies have slowed down their enthusiasm for acquisitions and instead depleted inventory.
Wheat prices will show a slow decline in the short term, and the big fall will not be, but the momentum to continue to rise is insufficient. Therefore, do not be too greedy, and go with the flow for the road.
This article originated from Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Network