The current round of epidemic infection exceeded 1,000 people, when will the inflection point come? Zhong Nanshan: It can be effectively controlled within a month

China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Xu Yunqian, trainee reporter Zhang Qi reported from Beijing

With wave after wave of unevenness and wave after wave, the daily new cases in most provinces affected by this round of epidemic have shown a downward trend, or even zero new cases, but the epidemic in Dalian has shown an upward trend.

According to the National Health Commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on November 11, there were 52 new cases in Dalian. From November 6 to November 10, the number of new cases in Dalian was 9, 5, 17 and 27, respectively, and the number of confirmed cases increased day by day.

In this regard, on the evening of November 11, Yi Qingtao, secretary general of the Dalian Municipal People's Government of Liaoning Province, reported at the press conference on the prevention and control of the epidemic in Dalian that the current round of epidemic situation shows the characteristics of unit cluster, family cluster, school cluster, etc., the virus has a high load, fast transmission speed, strong contagion, and intergenerational transmission of about 2 days.

At the same time, there has also been a cluster of cases in the Beijing epidemic. At noon on November 11, the 258th press conference on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Beijing was held. At the meeting, Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, informed that from 23:00 on November 10 to 11:00 on November 11, there were 6 new confirmed cases of local new crown pneumonia and 1 case of asymptomatic infection in Beijing. In Area C of Fuli Taoyuan, Xisanqi, Haidian District, close contacts of a confirmed case and 5 of his family members were all positive for nucleic acid testing, of which 4 people have been confirmed and 1 is an asymptomatic infected person. At present, the detailed circulation and traceability of this epidemic situation is still being carried out.

Since October 17, the current round of local epidemics has been spread for nearly a month, and as of 24:00 on November 11, this round of epidemics has reported a total of 1,260 local infections, affecting 20 provinces. At present, there are 3 high-risk areas, which are located in Hebei, Heilongjiang and Sichuan, and 89 medium-risk areas.

So, is the inflection point of this round of the epidemic coming? In this regard, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said at the plenary meeting of the Global Mayors Forum on the 11th that the current is an active period of the new crown virus, although there is an outbreak of local epidemics, it is believed that it can be effectively controlled in less than a month.

This round of the epidemic has infected more than 1,000 people

As of 24:00 on November 11, more than 1,260 local infections have been reported in this round of the epidemic, affecting 20 provinces. These include Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shanxi, Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai. At present, there are 3 high-risk areas, which are located in Hebei, Heilongjiang and Sichuan, and 89 medium-risk areas are located in Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu and Ningxia.

However, from the cumulative number of confirmed cases, from October 17 to October 26, there were a total of 247 confirmed cases of the local epidemic that lasted for 10 days. From November 2 to November 11, there were 604 cases of the local epidemic that also lasted for ten days, with 109 cases, 64 cases, 68 cases, 40 cases, 40 cases, 50 cases, 50 cases, 50 cases, 65 cases, 43 cases, 39 cases, 47 cases and 79 cases, respectively.

It can be seen that as of now, although the current round of the epidemic is still in the growth period, the increase in the number of confirmed cases is gradually decreasing, the overall epidemic situation tends to be stable, and the number of confirmed cases is declining in fluctuations.

So, does this mean that the inflection point of the current round of the epidemic is coming?

In this regard, on the evening of November 11, at the plenary meeting of the Global Mayors Forum, Zhong Nanshan said that when the Delta variant appeared in Guangzhou in May this year, none of the patients who had been vaccinated had serious illness. Delta variants are characterized by short incubation periods and fast propagation rates. In the comparison of the transmittal force of the Delta strain with the common strain and other infectious diseases, the Delta strain is more infectious than MERS and et al.

In Zhong Nanshan's view, under the premise of controlling the virus case fatality rate at 0.1%, the replication index at 1.0-1.5, and the transmission coefficient is reduced, it can be completely opened. However, to achieve the premise, it is necessary to vaccinate the whole people, establish herd immunity, normalize community group prevention and control, and develop effective drugs.

Zhong Nanshan said: "After two doses of the new crown vaccine are vaccinated, the third dose of the new crown vaccine is also needed, whether it is a whole virus inactivated vaccine or an mRNA vaccine, the humoral immune function of the body after the first course of treatment is significantly reduced." "At present, 1.073 billion people in China have completed the full vaccination, with a vaccination rate of 75.8%, and 41.713 million people have been strengthened.

In addition, Liang Zongan, director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine at West China Hospital of Sichuan University, also said: "I think the current round of epidemic in Chengdu may have reached the stage of inflection point. In the future, the epidemic situation in Chengdu will gradually improve, because what is being implemented is a very strong approach to controlling this round of epidemics in accordance with the three principles of infectious disease control. According to the news released by Sichuan on the 11th, there is 1 new local confirmed case in Sichuan, and there are currently 1 high-risk area and 12 medium-risk areas.

What are the similarities and differences between the 5 rounds of the epidemic?

According to statistics from the National Health Commission, since July 2021, there have been five rounds of local outbreaks, from Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Putian, Harbin and many "tour groups".

It is worth noting that compared with the previous 4 epidemics, the number of confirmed cases of the new round of local epidemics is generally at a "medium level". From the perspective of growth trend, the number of new daily confirmed cases of the current round of local epidemic is still on the rise, which is roughly the same as the previous epidemic growth trend in Putian and Nanjing.

From the perspective of the type of confirmed cases, compared with the previous four local epidemics, the proportion of "ordinary" cases in the new round of local epidemics is high. According to the incomplete statistics of this reporter, in the new round of 76 confirmed cases with clear case type notification, the proportion of "ordinary" cases reached 56.58%, which was 11.03% and 2.65% higher than that of Nanjing and Harbin respectively.

From the perspective of the source of transmission, like the previous four outbreaks, the earliest confirmed cases of the new round of local epidemics are related to the Delta strain. In addition, this round of the epidemic has also made a new breakthrough in the source of the epidemic.

Recently, the analysis of the virus sequence of the epidemic in Beijing shows that the viruses belong to the Delta variant strain, and the gene sequences of the early cases of the cluster epidemic transmission branch associated with Fengtai District, Haidian District and Changping District of Beijing are highly homologous, and the possibility of belonging to the same transmission chain is greater, and the possibility of transmission caused by the early import of potential infected people outside Beijing is not ruled out.