November 11 marks the 72nd birthday of the Republican Air Force. In the long journey of development, the Chinese Air Force had the highlight moment when the newborn calves were not afraid of tigers, and also experienced the trough of shyness in the 80s. A war and a crisis in the 1990s made the Chinese Air Force, which had been cultivated for decades, finally usher in a rapid development in the 21st century.
J-20 and J-16 fighters
The 3rd/4th generation fighters represented by the J-10, J-11 and J-16 have successively ushered in batch equipment. The "three major pieces of the Air Force" planned for the new century, the fifth-generation aircraft, the strategic transport aircraft, and the strategic bomber, have now completed two. At the same time, the improved version of the J-20 and the J-35 project are also in smooth progress. Everything is so thriving, all the visions of the Chinese Air Force are becoming a reality, and it is inevitable that people can't help but look forward to what the Chinese Air Force will look like in 2025.
American F-22 and F-35 fighters
Understanding the state of the U.S. Air Force, the world's first air force, can help us better understand the future development direction and goals of the Chinese Air Force. As we all know, after entering the 21st century, the United States took the lead in realizing the equipment of two fifth-generation fighters, of which the F-22 stealth fighter that entered service earlier, although it has excellent agility, the overall design positioning is also very in line with the needs of the US Air Force. However, the F-22 production line was dismantled too hastily, resulting in the F-22 stealth fighter group being limited to less than 200 aircraft, not enough to fully replace the F-15 heavy fighter.
J-16 fighter
As a result, the U.S. Air Force has defined a development path for the common use of fifth- and fourth-generation aircraft, and in order to ensure that the U.S. Air Force's heavy air superiority fighters and fighter-bombers can form a scale advantage over potential opponents. In recent years, the United States has not only not retired the F-15C and F-15E, but in recent years, it has procured 144 F-15X heavy fighters while already equipped with two fifth-generation aircraft, bringing the total number of traditional 4th-generation heavy fighters in the U.S. Air Force to 573. In contrast, in the past 20 years, although China's air force has also realized a large number of equipment for the Russian-made Su-27/Su-30/Su-35 and the domestically produced J-11/J-16 fourth-generation heavy fighters in the past 20 years.
However, combined with domestic and foreign statistics, the size of the fourth-generation heavy aircraft fleet of the Chinese Air Force is about 400 to 450 aircraft. Among them, the most advanced J-16 fighter is calculated at a production rate of 30 per year, and from 2017 to 2021, at least 140 J-16s should have entered service with the Air Force and shore-based aviation. Although, the size of the 4th generation heavy aircraft fleet of the Chinese Air Force is significantly relatively small. But unlike the United States, where the F-22 has been cut off, the Chinese Air Force's heavy fifth-generation J-20 is in production. The Chinese Air Force can and can make up for the relative shortage of air superiority heavy aircraft and fighter-bombers by producing more J-20 stealth fighters in the future.
J-20 fleet
J-11B fighter
Moreover, the annual output of the J-20 under the blessing of domestic hangfa can reach about 40 aircraft, and between 2021 and 2025, the J-20 fleet is fully expected to double. The J-16 fighter is expected to enter the low-speed production stage after completing the initial production of 150 aircraft, and then replace the aging Su-27, Su-30 and early-produced J-11 heavy fighters year by year. It is expected that in 2025, the heavy aircraft fleet of the Chinese Air Force will mainly consist of 250 to 280 J-20, 200 to 250 J-16 and 100 J-11B, as well as hundreds of Su-30 and J-11s that have retreated to the second line. Both the composition and the comprehensive combat performance are obviously significantly superior to the heavy aircraft fleet of the US Air Force.
F-16 fighter
Whether medium and light fighters are suitable for the Chinese Air Force has been highly controversial. During the Cold War, combined with the dense distribution of airports in Europe and the close proximity of the airport to the front line, the US Air Force chose the front-line light fighter F-16 developed and designed by General Dynamics according to local conditions. With excellent cost performance and combat performance, the F-16 fighter jet has received 4700 orders in the next nearly 40 years. After entering the new century, the US Air Force initially planned to completely replace the F-16 fighter with the F-35A, but on the one hand, because the F-35Block3F model was not able to form combat capabilities until the last two years, on the other hand, the F-16 fighter still has excellent cost performance when performing daily tasks.
J-10C fighter
So until 2021, the U.S. Air Force will still be equipped with 983 F-16 light fighters while already equipped with 283 F-35As. Comprehensive multi-channel information, by 2021, the total output of china's J-10 fighter three models has also reached about 500. If the average annual output of 30 fighters in the Chinese Air Force is calculated, the size of the J-10 fighters of the Chinese Air Force should reach about 600 in 2025. However, from a practical point of view, the size of the Chinese Air Force's J-10 fleet may not be further increased in the future.
First of all, the overall strategy of the Chinese Air Force is gradually changing from the past national air defense to breaking through the island chain. As a short-range front-line fighter similar to the US F-16, the J-10 fighter has a series of fundamental problems that cannot be ignored and are difficult to solve, such as short range and low load. In addition to the air force units in the southwest region also have a certain demand for the J-10 fighter, facing the northern, eastern, and southern theaters of the Asia-Pacific region, it is obvious that they are more eager to equip the J-16 and J-11 fighters with large-range characteristics, which can accompany the defense of special operations aircraft before the dejima chain to perform military tasks, have a strong mounting capability, and can act as a heavy fighter for "air arsenal aircraft" and "bomb trucks" in military operations.
The J-35 fighter jet is about to come out
Secondly, shenfei J-35 fighter in the research and development and manufacturing, the application of many new technologies conducive to the rapid assembly and design and production of J-35 fighters, it is expected that as soon as 2025, J-35 fighters can enter the mass production stage. The ever-changing engine technology has made the combat range of the F-35A/C models significantly exceed that of the F-22 and F-15 heavy fighters, and even the mounting capacity is not inferior. Moreover, compared with the J-20 only purchased by the Air Force, the R&D and manufacturing cost of the J-35 can be well shared by the Navy's future 6 to 10 aircraft carriers, coupled with the intelligent assembly factory and 3D printer body technology that Shen Fei took the lead in applying, the J-35 fighter is fully expected to achieve an annual output of 100 aircraft, and the purchase of a single aircraft is reduced to about 80 million to 90 million US dollars.
Therefore, the Chinese Air Force actually has a considerable probability in the future, and will purchase a large number of J-35 fighter jets to cope with the USAF's eventual F-35A fleet of 1500 aircraft. The change in the strategy of the Chinese Air Force, coupled with the addition of the J-35 fighter jet in 2025. There is no doubt that the J-10 fighter, which has a scale of nearly 500 fighters, will only become more and more awkward in the future. It is expected that the production of J-10 fighters in the future will mainly revolve around the replacement of old combat aircraft such as the J-7 and J-8. By 2025, as J-35 fighter jets begin to be installed, the size of the J-10 fleet is expected to eventually freeze at 600. Instead, there may be more J-20 and J-35 fighters.
Fleet of Y-20 fighters
Air Police-500 AWACS aircraft
In addition to the development of major combat aircraft fighters, thanks to the C919 passenger aircraft and the innovation of production and manufacturing technology of domestic aviation and domestic aviation manufacturing enterprises, the Chinese Air Force's early warning aircraft, anti-submarine aircraft, high-tech aircraft, and tactical/strategic transport aircraft units are also expected to develop by leaps and bounds in 2025. In particular, the Y-20 strategic transport aircraft fleet, with the manufacturing speed of the west flying year after year, the scale of the Y-20 fleet in 2025 crosses the double-digit threshold, which can be said to be a nail in the coffin. In addition, the "big bird" that domestic military fans look forward to every year is estimated to be unveiled at the military parade that may be held in 2025 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Anti-Japanese War.
In general, 2025 will be a key node for the Chinese Air Force, the second-generation aircraft will all withdraw from the second line in the reserve base pension, turbofan 15 version of the J-20, turbofan-20 version of the Y-20 will also form a certain equipment scale, J-35 may also be put into use, the Chinese Air Force will become the world's second equipped with two types of five-generation aircraft. The most crucial thing is that the last of the three major pieces of the Air Force will be expected to unveil the mysterious veil at that time, and China's Air Force will truly complete the transformation of the strategic air force and the informationized air force. Then, as predicted by the U.S. Air Force staff, in as little as 5 years and as long as 10 years, the Chinese Air Force will be able to fully catch up with the US Air Force in all combat aircraft fields.