Driven by the dual control of energy consumption and the policy of power rationing in the domestic chemical market, the prices of bulk commodities and raw materials have experienced a sharp rise, and then the national policy regulation and control fell to the altar, and the price experienced a sharp decline in less than half a month. It can be seen from the Guanghua Trading South China Chemical Products Price Index that the highest point of the index at the end of October exceeded 1400 points, and as of November 9, the index has fallen back to 1291 points, a decline of 8.5%. Following the law of the market, it is bound to usher in a big fall after the big rise, the market has gradually returned to rationality, and the price is returning to a reasonable space.
As far as the caustic soda market is concerned, a downward channel has been opened since the end of October, and the price has finally ushered in a sharp decline after experiencing the sharp rise in September and October. Taking Shandong as an example, the 32% ion membrane fell by about 35% compared with the highest price in October, and the 50% ion membrane alkali fell by 36%-41%; the tablet alkali in the Inner Mongolia region as an example, the decline in the month was about 40%, and the local main manufacturers quoted for two consecutive weeks were lowered by more than 1,000 yuan / ton. The period of high prices has passed, how the future market will go, and where the price can return is also the focus of attention of the industry.
The chlor-alkali enterprises in the early maintenance have resumed work, the operating load has risen to 78%, compared with the previous 74% increased by 4%, the market supply increased, the tight situation was alleviated, some enterprises shipped inventory pressure, due to the late maintenance of enterprises less, the device start will gradually recover to more than 80%; the chip alkali manufacturers the device started steadily, and the enterprise inventory began to gradually increase.
2. According to Aixue Consulting, the current operating capacity of the alumina industry is 71.15 million tons, and the operating rate of the device is about 79%. As of November 10, the mainstream price in Shandong is 4030-4070 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Shanxi is 4020-4080 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Henan is 4050-4090 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Guangxi is 3800-3840 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Guizhou is 3870-3890 yuan / ton. Although the current alumina quotation is firm, the actual transaction price on the market has dropped a lot, and it is understood that the inventory of alumina plants is also continuing to increase, manufacturers are pessimistic, and the price decline is about to begin.
3, energy consumption dual control and power rationing policy will continue, here to pay attention to the later policy impact is the downstream, the upstream impact is small, printing and dyeing chemical fiber, paper, chemical and other industries will continue to be limited, the demand for caustic soda will be reduced accordingly.
4, the north is currently in the winter heating peak production season, the chemical industry equipment will also be affected to a certain extent, the impact on the alumina industry will be relatively small, because most of the alumina has been transformed into a device, emissions have basically reached the standard.
In summary, with the domestic caustic soda enterprises to start the start of the gradual recovery, the market supply will gradually increase, the superimposed power curtailment policy continues, and November is in the off-season of demand, alumina and non-aluminum downstream demand weakens, especially the main downstream alumina industry is difficult to play a supporting role, the market bearish dominance. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will show a weak trend in November, and the price will gradually return to a reasonable range.
First, the liquid alkali market
This week, the domestic liquid alkali market declined, and prices in most areas were lowered to varying degrees. Shandong area of the early maintenance of enterprises have resumed construction, the market supply of goods gradually enterprises, enterprise shipment pressure appeared, coupled with this month's local alumina down adjustment of liquid alkali procurement price of 200 yuan / ton, the industry mostly hold a bearish mentality; East China device gradually returned to normal, downstream demand weakened, enterprise shipment pressure is large, the price is reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton; Hebei area enterprise equipment started normally, downstream demand is generally affected by the market in Shandong, the local price fell The enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started steadily, and affected by the sharp decline in the price of local tablet alkali, the local liquid alkali has also fallen sharply, with a decline of about 200 yuan / ton; the downstream demand in South China is general, with the influx of low-priced goods, the price has also fallen.
Overall, the current chlor-alkali enterprise equipment operating load is gradually increasing, downstream alumina inventory and non-aluminum downstream construction is limited, demand will gradually decrease, the market oversupply situation has begun to appear, the industry mostly hold a bearish mentality. Although the price of alumina purchased in Shanxi and Henan this month has been raised, it belongs to the direct supply to make up for the rise, and the price of trader channels has actually fallen, so it is difficult to support the liquid alkali market in the later period.
As of November 10, the reference prices of the liquid alkali market in the mainstream areas of China are as follows:
At present, the oversupply situation in the liquid alkali market has begun to appear, and the market is bearish. In view of this, it is expected that the downside risk of the domestic liquid alkali market will remain large in the short term.
Second, the tablet alkali market
This week, the domestic tablet alkali market declined, and the prices of the main production areas and the main sales areas were sharply reduced. At present, the price of 99% of tablet alkali manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is 3500-4000 yuan / ton, and the actual local transaction price is lower than this price.
At present, the manufacturer's equipment is working normally, the supply of goods has increased, and the tight situation has been alleviated. It is understood that this week's main enterprises in Inner Mongolia are quoted at 3500 yuan / ton, Xinjiang region is mostly based on a single talk, and the main enterprises in Shandong are not quoted for the time being, and the market quotation is more chaotic in general. At present, the supply of manufacturers is stable, the impact of energy consumption dual control and power rationing policy is mainly in the downstream industry, the demand will also be reduced, and with the gradual increase in the inventory of alumina enterprises, the demand for sheet alkali will also be reduced, and the alumina market is about to open a downward channel, which will also reduce the purchase price of tablet alkali to a certain extent. In addition, because the current price is in a sharp decline stage, the downstream holds the mentality of buying up and not buying down, and the actual trading volume is not ideal.
As of November 10, the reference prices of the domestic mainstream regional tablet alkali market are as follows:
At present, the tablet alkali market is gathering bearishly, and under the impetus of the mentality of buying up and not buying down, people in the industry hold a bearish mentality. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic tablet alkali market will still decline in the short term, and the price will be lowered by a large margin.